Betz’s Small Field GPP Review: Week 4 (Fantasy Football)
Welcome to a brand new article for the 2025 DFS season! I get most of my action in cash games and small field tournaments for DFS, shying away from the large field lottos. In this article each week throughout the NFL season, I’ll recap my lineup for small field GPPs on DraftKings, highlighting my process and strategy. For the 2025 season, I’ll usually be playing in the $100 Single Entry Spy on DraftKings.
Contest Format
- $100 Single Entry
- Total Entrants: 133
- Placed Paid: 31/133 (23.3%)
*Note – For this week, I did not register in time for the 300+ entrant Spy. I was in Happy Valley watching Penn State lose another big game in prime time to Oregon (Pain). As a result, I played in the SE $100 Spy contest that had the above payout structure.
Week 4 Small Field GPP Lineup
The Thought Process
-Unlike last week where we had all the money in the world and almost too much value, this week was pretty tightly priced on DraftKings. That funneled me onto a build with a cheap QB and Brenton Strange as a cheap punt TE. I had actually planned to start with Cole Kmet as a one-off punt play, but once Dyami Brown (Shoulder) got ruled out, I switched onto Strange, especially since I was already playing McCaffrey to give me a mini-game stack.
-The Colts/Rams game carried the slate’s highest game total, and it was being played in a dome. It was one that Borg and I highlighted on our Friday show and in Best Plays. I knew I really wanted to play that game, but I wanted to try to get unique exposure here. Of course, I knew Puka was going to be mega chalk (and he was), but his role right now is just so absurd. I couldn’t see that LAR/IND game going off without him. Davante Adams was a guy I pivoted off in cash given the hamstring issue, and once he left the cash pool, I knew his roster percentage would crater in small field GPPs. Getting him at 9.8% felt really good from a process standpoint. Playing them both together as part of a Daniel Jones team (double bring back) was something I figured not a lot of the field would do, giving me access to that unique game stack I was looking for.
-Speaking of stacks, there were a ton of strong $5K QB plays on this slate – Caleb, Geno, Drake Maye in particular were all projecting for some hefty roster percentage and given the field’s gravitation towards CHI/LV as a stack, I wanted to gain some leverage by not playing that stack. Very happy to get a good read here, regardless of outcome. Caleb Williams (18.1%), Geno Smith (14.3%), Rome Odunze (27.8%), Jakobi Meyers (37.6%) and Tre Tucker (19.6%) were some of the most popular plays in this contest. As for my Danny Dimes team, Tyler Warren was the most obvious stacking partner, but I was looking for some leverage, so I played Michael Pittman for a few reasons:
-First, he was direct leverage off Warren. That didn’t really help or hurt me this week as Warren’s 18.3 DK points barely beat Pittman’s 15.1. Second, he was a direct price point pivot off the chalky Jakobi Meyers ($5,400) and perhaps more importantly, Chris Olave ($5,100). The volume with Olave is so strong, but it’s generally really tough to find a ceiling outcome for tournaments when Spencer Rattler is your QB and your scoring expectation is so low. Pittman was a direct pivot at a fraction of the roster percentage, and it helped me complete the IND/LAR game stack in a unique way.
-At RB this week, there were once again some really awesome plays. I made the mistake last week of trying to get too cute, so this week, I leaned into the two of the best RB plays on the slate with Hampton and CMC and ate the chalk while trying to get unique elsewhere. Speaking of…
–Christian Kirk was a guy I highlighted in our Best Plays article as a dart throw. The result clearly wasn’t there, but as a very low rostered player to help differentiate my lineup, happy with landing on him at just 2.3%. At DST, the Texans and Titans were our two top DSTs for cash games, leaving me with plenty of options in that lower $3K range as pivots. I got fortunate with an Eagles punt block TD return, but my rationale for playing them was 1) low ownership and 2) the Bucs injury situation. No Mike Evans, Baker Mayfield (LP, LP, LP) questionable entering the game, multiple OL injuries, and Chris Godwin‘s return to the lineup at less than 100%.
With the Benefit of Hindsight
-Ironically, the user who came in third ($1,000 prize) had Matthew Stafford at QB double stacked with Puka and Adams. I think it’s a good reminder of us as fantasy players and analysts not being very good at identifying “ceiling” in fantasy, or rather when those ceiling outcomes are going to hit. Stafford is usually not a QB you need in fantasy given his lack of rushing, but if I was already betting on his WRs, perhaps I should have played the QB too…he of course went for 375 passing yards and 3 TDs. On the flip side, Jones’ score would have looked a lot better had AD Mitchell not fumbled at the goal line. C’mon man!!
-Other examples of “low ceiling” players having great outcomes this year: Wan’Dale Robinson going for 8/142/1 on 10 targets in Week 2 @ DAL, Tre Tucker going for 8/145/3 just a week ago against Washington, and Kenneth Gainwell going for over 100 scrimmage yards and two TDs Sunday morning in Ireland sans Jaylen Warren. In small field especially, correlation is probably the number one thing I try to prioritize.
-All in all, very happy with the process this week and think I played much better than the week prior. I identified some of my favorite chalk plays on the slate and leaned into them while getting unique at other less predictable positions (WR and DST).
Weekly Results:
- Week 1: 35th place, $250
- Week 2: 72nd place, $150
- Week 3: 242nd place, $0
- Week 4: 28th place, $150