Betz’s Small Field GPP Review: Week 3 (Fantasy Football)
Welcome to a brand new article for the 2025 DFS season! I get most of my action in cash games and small field tournaments for DFS, shying away from the large field lottos. In this article each week throughout the NFL season, I’ll recap my lineup for small field GPPs on DraftKings, highlighting my process and strategy. For the 2025 season, I’ll usually be playing in the $100 Single Entry Spy on DraftKings.
Contest Format
- $100 Single Entry
- Total Entrants: 334
- Placed Paid: 71/334 (20.6%)
- Rake: 9.9%
Week 3 Small Field GPP Lineup
The Thought Process
-This was a really unique slate. We had an unbelievable amount of value, almost too much value. With cheap QBs available and 5+ great RB plays, I was definitely willing to play some chalk (more on that in a minute), but I was also not going to force a game stack. As we talked about on Friday’s DFS Pod, the DAL/CHI game was pretty much alone at the top of the game totals this week. Entering the weekend, I definitely considered stacking it up, but I was worried about that game gaining a ton of steam.
-In this contest, I definitely had a good read on that in terms of roster percentage – Dak (17.4%), Caleb Williams (16.5%), Rome Odunze (44.3%), CeeDee (37.1%), George Pickens (14.4%) and Jake Ferguson (15.6%) were all extremely popular. By fading that game, I knew I could get a lot of leverage on the field, so regardless of process, I’m happy about getting a good read on that ownership, something I wrote more about in last week’s article.
-I almost always stack in DFS, but with Marcus Mariota staring us in the face at just $4K, and the Washington pass catchers not really popping in projections, I decided to run him out there naked and just take the cheap value.
-As noted, the RB plays this week were off the charts. Jordan Mason ($5,400), Kenneth Walker ($5,800), Jonathan Taylor ($7,200), Bijan Robinson ($7,900) and Christian McCaffrey ($8,200) were all fantastic plays entering the slate. That said, in small field, I felt pretty strongly that at least three of those guys would get outsized roster percentages, and with this being a great late swap slate, my goal prior to lock was to build a lineup where I knew I could get early information.
-As you’ll see, I went for the fade on Bijan, JT and Jordan Mason…we know how that turned out. Mason (40.1%), Bijan (36.8%) and JT (31.4%) were three of the five most popular plays in this contest, so again, I do feel good about getting that read in terms of roster percentage, but obviously, I got burned with my leverage plays.
-With Mason and Kenneth Walker both in the mid $5K range, I knew Jaylen Warren would be kept in check in terms of his roster percentage, and with Saquon on the outside looking in in terms of cash game builds, I figured he’d also be a contrarian early play. Saquon was also a nice mini-correlation with Davante, who I figured would come in pretty low in terms of his popularity. Obviously, with JT and Mason going bonkers, I was way behind entering the late slate.
-The lineup you see above was not what I had at lock. At lock, I had Mariota – Saquon – Warren – Evans – Adams – Keenan – Trey McBride – Ken Walker. If my lineup did well early and/or Mason and JT failed, I was set to stick with Walker, Keenan and McBride. Those three were some of the best plays on the slate, but I knew they’d be wildly popular. As a result of my early guys not performing, I knew I had to swap off them in order to give myself a fighting chance at a min cash.
-Prior to lock, I did play with combinations of late swap guys that could work in the salary structure I had left. Keenan – TcM – Walker swapped perfectly to Ladd – Juwan – Pearsall, so this was my exit strategy if things took a turn for the worst early on. Pearsall was great and actually out-scored Ken Walker, so that was a small W, but with Keenan smashing, McBride scoring a TD (Hey, it happened!) and Ladd failing, I was cooked.
With the Benefit of Hindsight
-Small field roster percentages can get a bit nutty with the best plays steaming up to 40+ percent quite frequently. That said, I think I got too cute this week, especially considering that the ‘cash’ RB plays on this slate weren’t just good plays; they were great plays, especially when you adjust for cost. By playing a lower rostered Mike Evans and Davante Adams, who I identified as potential lower rostered WRs, I probably didn’t need to go ultra contrarian at RB.
-Those WRs were contrarian enough that I honestly should have played one of the chalk early RBs. I definitely still feel okay about the process in terms of gaining leverage at RB, but playing one of Mason, JT or Bijan was probably okay as long as I didn’t play both (again, to gain information for late swap).
-Juwan was actually more rostered than McBride (18.8%) in this contest, and I thought I might get Pearsall closer to 10 to 12%. Flipping the cards in the late slate and realizing I was still playing somewhat popular guys definitely did not feel good. I don’t want to be too bias in hindsight, but perhaps the go to move would have been to play JSN, who actually got squeezed here in small field after he got added to the injury report Saturday because of an illness. I definitely felt that squeeze coming for sure because I had him in my cash lineup Saturday until that news broke, and as Kyle noted in his Week 3 Cash Review article, JSN was only about 31% in double ups. JSN would have also been direct leverage off Walker, who I knew I had to swap off of given my early slate woes.
-All in all, I do not think I played great this week. Certainly a bit too contrarian considering this may (from a projections standpoint) be the strongest chalk slate we see all season. Not recognizing that was a flat out mistake. On slates where chalk condenses around some shaky profiles, I should play like I did this week.
Weekly Results:
- Week 1: 35th place, $250
- Week 2: 72nd place, $150
- Week 3: 242nd place, $0