QB1 Primer: Week 5

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Boom! The QB1 Primer finally came through with a monster Week 4 performance with 8 of the top 12 QBs including mid level and lower level QB1 spots 6-12. And yet the big blemish on my numbers is fading Matt Ryan and his 503 yards. Whoops.

As we progress into another week, we need to keep in mind that our pool of QBs look dramatically different as we enter into heavy bye weeks. With the Jaguars, Seahawks, Chiefs, and Saints on bye, our pool shrinks to 28 possible options and actually gives some of the top tier options at the QB position more value. However, some sleepers could most certainly sneak in. Hello Brian Hoyer? Speaking of Hoyer, he has now been a QB1 each of the last two weeks and now enters Week 5 against a beatable Colts secondary. Hmmmm.

Just a weekly reminder: Here at the QB1 Primer, we look at the varying tiers of quarterbacks, assessing risk, home/away matchups, Vegas totals and realizing each week will have a bit of spontaneity. This isn’t predicting order, but simply identifying who is likely to be among the top 12.

***Note: Blake Bortles, Russell Wilson, Alex Smith, and Drew Brees were not considered as their respective teams are on bye.

“Four”-Sures

Tom Brady @ CLE
If you’ve stashed Tom Terrific this long on your bench, it’s now time to plug in the Hall of Fame QB as he unleashes his fury on the rest of the NFL. Of course it would be the lowly Browns who will be bearing the beating. Brady with a healthy Gronk and Edelman is a dangerous combination. James White will also be a big beneficiary in the passing game. Jot this down in pen people.

Ben Roethlisberger vs. NYJ
Big Ben returned with a vengeance making the Chiefs look elementary with 300 yards and five touchdowns. He now faces a New York secondary has given up the 5th most fantasy points to Quarterbacks this season and allowing the highest completion percentage (71.4) in the league. Don’t think twice as Roethlisberger is an automatic start this week.

Derek Carr @ SD
Although he only threw for 199 yards last week, Carr completed 25-of-35 passes and four touchdowns. He is turning into an every week start and seems in rhythm with Michael Crabtree as a red zone threat. San Diego also has given up the 9th most fantasy points to Quarterbacks this season. They’ve been average at best apart from corners Jason Verrett and Casey Hayward. Send in the Carr again!

Philip Rivers vs. OAK
Carr’s dueling mate this week gets a great home divisional matchup as Oakland has given up the 3rd most fantasy points to Quarterbacks this season. Rivers has turned it up a notch despite Keenan Allen’s injury going over 320 passing yards in each of the last two games. The Raiders are giving up the most passing yards per game (325.5) in the league. Sometimes it doesn’t look pretty as Rivers’ throwing motion makes you shriek but he gets it done in Vegas’ highest line of the weekend at 50 combined points.

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Com-Four-table

Aaron Rodgers vs. NYG
Coming off a bye, Rodgers draws the Giants at home who have been surprisingly stingy. I can’t overwhelm you and bend tons of statistics in favor of the Packers, but it seems like Rodgers and the passing game got back on track in Week 3 against the Lions. Listen Rodgers is still a stud and a weekly QB1 mention.

Andrew Luck vs. CHI
Luck garbaged timed his way into a QB1 performance last week in London as the offensive line crumbled over and over again. Although the Bears stymied Matthew Stafford last week, they still have a no name approach in the secondary. Luck also has the volume you like throwing the ball at least 37 times in every contest. He can certainly post high QB1 numbers once again.

Andy Dalton @ DAL
Dalton is another forgotten QB name that I think could play great dividends on the road this week. The game script should allow this to be a back and forth affair with A.J. Green coming off a ridiculous Thursday night game. Dalton has yet to have his breakout game and I think this should be it.

Joe Flacco vs WAS
Flacco has been a regular QB1 streamer this year with plus matchups throughout the first couple of weeks and another one against Washington in Week 5. The Ravens rank third in the league in pass attempts and yet Flacco has vowed to throw the ball downfield more. The Redskins have given up 14 pass plays of 20 yards or more and a 70.3 completion percentage, third-worst in the league. That’s a recipe for success if you ask me.

Last Four In

Carson Wentz @ DET
As mentioned in Week 5 QB Streamers article, Wentz is a great play coming off a bye playing at home against a Detroit defense . The Lions have given up 46, 23, 36 and 26 fantasy points to the QB position over the last 4 weeks giving up the 2nd most fantasy points to Quarterbacks this season. Wentz has been ultra efficient and the rookie has surprisingly graded out as Pro Football Focus’ top rated QB through the first quarter of the season.

Matthew Stafford vs. PHI
There is going to be much hysteria with this pick as the statistics show that Philadelphia has given up the fewest fantasy points to Quarterbacks this season. And yet the passing games they’ve played against have been anemic apart from Big Ben’s Week 3 debacle. I’m not convinced the Eagles are a truly elite team defensively and think Stafford can have a bounce back game. He was a solid QB1 performer the previous 3 weeks. I’ll most likely be in the minority but sign me up.

Brian Hoyer @ IND
Somehow this journeyman has made this list the last 2 weeks. If Hoyer does have one trait worth some for fantasy owners, it’s that he will chuck the ball without any fear. He’s thrown over 300 yards and 2 TDs both weeks and Coach John Fox has stated that he will continue to start him. Indianapolis ranks 25th against the pass allowing 277 yards per game and I think Hoyer will be able to dial it up again.

Eli Manning @ GB
Manning and the entire Giants offense has been offensive but this seems like the type of matchup to get him back on track despite being on the road. Green Bay has given up the 4th most fantasy points to Quarterbacks this season and have been particularly inept against the pass. Call this a roll of the dice. Sometimes Eli comes up double-sixs and I think he will be an especially low owned GPP play.

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Four-get About It

Matt Ryan @ DEN
Listen I hate going against fantasy’s #1 QB and my home town guy here in Atlanta. But this is one of the main unwritten rules of the QB1 Primer: fade anyone against Denver. They’ve given up the 6th fewest fantasy points to Quarterbacks this season, a 55.4 completion percentage and 169.5 passing yards per game, both trailing only the Texans secondary in terms of prominence. I know it’s tempting and perhaps Ryan could accumulate some volume numbers but this train has to stop at some point, and in Denver is THE nightmare matchup for any QB.

Jameis Winston @ CAR
I want no part of Winston’s matchup not the road despite Carolina coming off an embarrassing performance against the Falcons last week. Remember these Bucs got destroyed in Week 17 last year after Carolina was beat by the Falcons to end their hopes of an undefeated dream season. Winston has also been atrocious so far throwing 8 INTs. No thanks.

Kirk Cousins @ BAL
I usually switch back and forth on Cousins as that is the type of fantasy performer he is. He has dramatic home and road splits and don’t like him against a Baltimore defense that has given up the 9th fewest fantasy points to Quarterbacks this season. They’re allowing only 176 yards per game in the air so I don’t predict much success from Captain Kirk.

Sam Bradford vs. HOU
Despite being undefeated and regardless of what you saw Monday night, Bradford has not been a good QB thus far. Minnesota has won with defense and early leads while asking their QB to make low-risk throws. Bradford and the Vikings face the Texans secondary which is giving up the lowest completion percentage and yards per game in the league. I want no part of this passing game from a fantasy perspective this week.

 

Last Week’s Record: 8/12 = 67% (That’s more like it!)

2016 Overall Record: 52%

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