Aaron Rodgers reminded us who he still is with SIX TDs last week. He far outpaced the rest of the QBs in last week. Here were the top-12 scoring fantasy QBs for Week 7 and a notation on the correct prediction from last week’s article.
- Aaron Rodgers– 43.76 pts
- Kirk Cousins– 29.18 pts (x)
- Matthew Stafford– 28.56 pts
- Jacoby Brissett– 27.64 pts (x)
- Jared Goff– 25.02 pts (x)
- Lamar Jackson– 23.32 pts (x)
- Josh Allen– 21.28 pts (x)
- Philip Rivers– 21.16 pts
- Gardner Minshew– 21 pts
- Ryan Fitzpatrick– 20.58 pts
- Dak Prescott– 20.56 pts (x)
- Mitch Trubisky– 20.04 pts
I missed out on Rodgers 6 TDs solely on the recency bias that he has regressed this season, Davante Adams was out and his other top options were hobbled. Whoops.
Here is a reminder for how I organize each week’s top-12 before we move on to discuss Week 8.
Four-Sures: Top-4 for the week and definite must-starts.
Com-Four-table: Four QBs with relatively safe floors with added upside to be a solid top-12 choice.
Four In the Door: Four QBs who could sneak into the top-12 including the Ballers “Stream of the Week” options and at least one daring dart throw.
Four-Get-About-It: Four QBs I’m fading this week and projecting to finish outside the top 12. Often this includes some higher-profile QBs with tougher matchups that could underperform.
***IMPORTANT NOTE*** There are 15-20 viable QB starts each week. If you don’t see your guy listed on here, that’s ok. This article is about predicting the top-12 not necessarily who is safest. I’d strongly advise you to follow Andy, Mike, and Jason’s advice for where they have QBs ranked for Week 8.
Deshaun Watson vs OAK
Watson has actually been more up-and-down then you would like this season with three weeks outside the top-15 while being a top-5 play four times. The ceiling is there this week against a Raiders defense that ranks 30th in pass DVOA and has given up the most 20+ pass plays at more than five a game. Duh, you’re playing him.
Russell Wilson @ ATL
Wilson struggled last week against Baltimore but is still the QB1 on the season. He is about to go off on the road in the game with the highest over/under (53.5) of the week. The Falcons are a disaster on all fronts ranking 31st in pass DVOA with the lowest adjusted sack rate in the league. He’s the Ballers Consensus QB2 on the week.
Tom Brady vs CLE
Brady has been solid this season with four top-7 performances and thus far the dud games have been predictable based on the matchup. He’s a top-5 play for me at home with the 2nd highest team implied total (30) of the week. The Browns rank 20th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to the QB position. Brady at home. Yes, please.
Aaron Rodgers @ KC
Rodgers went off last week for six total TDs reminding us that he is an all-timer despite not having Davante Adams at his disposal. He will be needed once again in a game with a 47.5 over/under with the Packers as 4.5-point road favorites. The Chiefs rank 24th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to the QB position. Rodgers is ranked as the Ballers Consensus QB3 on the week.
Matthew Stafford vs NYG
It’s time to recognize that this Lions offense looks so much more different than the anemic than the group from last year. Stafford has his highest TD rate (6%) since 2011 when he threw for 41 TDs, his highest average yards per attempts (8.6) of his career, and ranks 3rd among QBs in aDOT (10.3), compared to 6.9 last year. The Giants are a great matchup at home as they rank 27th in pass DVOA.
Jared Goff vs CIN
Goff returned with a vengeance last week with three total TDs as Atlanta fell apart at home. The Rams are 13-point home favorites with the highest team implied total (30.8) of the weekend. The Bengals know how to give up points to fantasy teams ranking 29th in pass DVOA and 29th in adjusted fantasy points to the QB position. Goff is ranked as high as QB4 by Jason and is Mike’s Start of the Week once again.
Josh Allen vs PHI
Allen at home versus the Eagles is a dream matchup especially when you consider the chemistry he has with John Brown. He’s matched up with Jalen Mills, one of PFF’s biggest mismatches of the week. Philadelphia has given up the 2nd most adjusted fantasy points to opposing WRs while ranking 20th in pass DVOA. They’ve also allowed five QB1 performances in seven weeks and with Allen’s rushing floor, a top-12 performance looks like a sure thing. Allen is ranked as the Ballers Consensus QB8 on the week.
Kirk Cousins vs WSH
You might’ve buried Cousins after the beginning of the season as it looked like Mike Zimmer was going to have his way and pound the ball on the ground for the rest of the season. Captain Kirk responded with 976 yards and 10 TDs the last three weeks as the QB2 in that span.. He’s in a great spot against a Washington defense that ranks 24th in Pass DVOA and allowed 30 points per game aside from the Dolphins jokefest and last week’s sloshfest with the 49ers. The Vikings are 15-point home favorites on Thursday night football so follow the points and the NBA Jam rules.
Four In the Door
Jacoby Brissett vs DEN
Brissett has far exceeded expectations this season as he has the 4th most TD passes in the league and has averaged 20.98 adjusted fantasy points per game. The Colts are 6-point home favorites and the Broncos have the 3rd lowest “sack potential” of any defensive unit according to Football Outsiders. He seems to have developed a dependable floor although his TD rate will come down soon. Ride him while he’s hot.
Teddy Bridgewater vs ARZ
Drew Brees‘ status is up in the air so let’s just call this “New Orleans QB” although I wanted Teddy Two Gloves to be the cover guy for the article. Regardless, the Saints are tied for the 3rd highest team implied total (28.8) of the weekend while playing at home against a much less talented team. The Cardinals rank 26th in pass DVOA and have allowed a QB1 week in five of seven weeks. I almost like a healthy Teddy more than a hobbled Brees who can wait to return until after next week’s bye.
Mason Rudolph vs MIA
Rudolph and the Steelers return from the bye and almost get to take another week off at home against the hapless Dolphins. Miami ranks dead last in DVOA versus the pass AND the run. That is hard to accomplish. The Dolphins have also given up the 2nd most adjusted fantasy points to QBs. Rudolph’s aDOT is nothing to celebrate but Juju Smith-Schuster could give fantasy owners the week they’ve been praying for all season long. As 14-point home favorites, follow the points not so much the QB talent.
Mitch Trubisky vs LAC
This is the going out on a limb dart throw of the week but the matchup is very very sneaky (as the butler from Mr. Deeds once said). The Chargers rank 28th in pass DVOA but have been fortunate/lucky to give up the 7th fewest adjusted fantasy points per game this season. They are allowing a 74.6 percent completion rate, the highest in the league. Trubisky has the rushing equity to give him a floor if need be. This is only for the most desperate of fantasy owners and more of a DFS play. But don’t be surprised if Trubisky responds after last week’s debacle where everyone left him for dead.
Baker Mayfield @ NE
By now, you know these Patriots are arguably the greatest defense ever through the first seven weeks of the season. They rank 1st in defensive DVOA and 1st in pass DVOA. Baker is going to have his hands full even after prepping during the bye week. No way you start him.
Kyler Murray @ NO
Murray didn’t have to do anything last week as the Cardinals jumped on Chase Edmonds back to a victory over the Giants. This week is difficult as the Saints rank 8th in defensive DVOA. Kyler’s floor could be fine especially if the running game can’t muster much. But he also could complete 28 passes for 208 yards if the Saints force him to dink and dunk his way. I can’t get too excited about a rookie QB going into a hostile environment as a 9.5 road underdog. I’m benching him in my home league for a higher upside option.
Jimmy Garoppolo vs CAR
Jimmy G gets a pass for last week in the downpour versus Washington. He still hasn’t been fantasy-friendly all year long registering just one QB1 performance on the season. The Panthers rank 3rd in pass DVOA and 2nd in adjusted sack rate so the 49ers will likely get this one done on the ground via Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida.
Carson Wentz @ BUF
Wentz is a stay away this week on the road in Buffalo. The Bills rank 5th in pass DVOA and have allowed only 1 QB1 performance on the season. They’ve allowed the 3rd fewest adjusted fantasy points to the position despite having the 2nd lowest adjusted sack rate in the league. In other words, although they’ve gotten little pressure on the QB, the secondary is just so dominant it doesn’t matter.
Last Week: 6/12
2019 Overall Percentage: 59%