Predicting the Top-12 QBs for Week 7
Last week went fairly status quo as the top-7 finishers were all written up in last week’s article. The Chiefs-Texans and Falcons-Cardinals games were as advertised. Well, except the Matt Bryant missed extra-point that put a dagger in this Falcon fan’s heart.
Here were the top-12 scoring fantasy QBs for Week 6 and a notation on the correct prediction from last week’s article.
- Matt Ryan– 30.94 pts (x)
- Lamar Jackson– 30.64 pts (x)
- Deshaun Watson– 29.4 pts (x)
- Russell Wilson– 28.9 pts (x)
- Kyler Murray– 28.8 pts (x)
- Kirk Cousins– 27.32 pts (x)
- Tom Brady– 21.96 pts (x)
- Carson Wentz– 20.54 pts
- Sam Darnold– 19.62 pts
- Baker Mayfield– 19.46 pts
- Patrick Mahomes– 18.82 pts (x)
- Aaron Rodgers– 18.32 pts
As mentioned, hitting on all the top-7 was key to now pushing the prediction percentage above 61% while two of the other predictions in last week’s article finished inside the top-15. Jared Goff‘s 78-yard debacle definitely was a poo-stain on the week.
Here is a reminder for how I organize each week’s top-12 before we move on to discuss Week 7.
Four-Sures: Top-4 for the week and definite must-starts.
Com-Four-table: Four QBs with relatively safe floors with added upside to be a solid top-12 choice.
Four In the Door: Four QBs who could sneak into the top-12 including the Ballers “Stream of the Week” options and at least one daring dart throw.
Four-Get-About-It: Four QBs I’m fading this week and projecting to finish outside the top 12. Often this includes some higher-profile QBs with tougher matchups that could underperform.
***IMPORTANT NOTE*** There are 15-20 viable QB starts each week. If you don’t see your guy listed on here, that’s ok. This article is about predicting the top-12 not necessarily who is safest. I’d strongly advise you to follow Andy, Mike, and Jason’s advice for where they have QBs ranked for Week 7.
Deshaun Watson @ IND
Watson has kicked it up a notch recently as the QB1 overall totalling 17 TDs on the season- 12 passing and five rushing. He’s the unanimous QB1 on the week in the Ballers Consensus Rankings. If you got him, there’s no way you’re benching him while he’s heating up, full-on NBA Jam mode.
Russell Wilson vs BAL
Lamar Jackson @ SEA
These two QBs are breaking some of the laws of football as Wilson’s efficiency numbers are off-the-charts once again and Jackson is on pace to surpass Michael Vick‘s QB rushing record. Wilson has been a QB1 in 5-of-6 weeks and Jackson has held his own even as a passer. They are surefire top-5 QBs in what should be the matchup of the week with a 49.5 over/under.
Patrick Mahomes @ DEN
This version of Mahomes is somewhat concerning in terms of upside and the matchup on the road with short rest isn’t overly appealing. But he’s been a top-12 QB every week and he averages 325 passing yards per game in his career. That’s this dude’s average. The Chiefs have the 5th highest team implied total of the weekend and with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, Mahomes is always in the Four-Sure category.
Matt Ryan vs LAR
Ryan has been basically bulletproof this season as a fantasy QB throwing for over 300 yards in every game despite the fact the Falcons are 1-5. Woof. He leads the league in attempts, completions, and Air Yards. Ryan at home in a dome game with a 54-point over/under is a done deal. He is ranked as the Ballers Consensus QB3 on the week.
Josh Allen vs MIA
Get ready to ride Josh Stallion for the next few weeks starting with this juicy matchup. The Bills are 17-point(!) home favorites with the 2nd highest team implied total (28) of Week 7. Miami is allowing the most points per drive (3.21) and the most fantasy points to opposing QBs. Andy is the highest among the Ballers at QB3.
Dak Prescott vs PHI
Carson Wentz @ DAL
This NFC East divisional matchup should be a good one on Sunday night. The Cowboys WRs have not done Dak a ton of favors as they’ve dropped 12 passes over the last month, most in the league. Prescott should get back on track as the Eagles have allowed the 9th most fantasy points to opposing QBs and is ranked as the QB8 by Andy and Jason this week. Wentz has been a top-10 QB in 5-of-6 weeks and might be playing catch up on the road. With a 49-point over/under, trust Vegas on this one and plug in these guys as top-10 plays.
Four In the Door
Jared Goff @ ATL
If you started Goff last week against San Francisco, you likely have turned towards crime and cursing to heal you of your wounds. Well, lick those wounds and fire up Goff again on the road against the hapless Falcons. The Falcons have given up five QB1 weeks, the 4th most passing yards, and have the lowest sack % in the league. The Rams as 3-point favorites have the highest team implied total (28.5) so get ready for some points. Goff is Mike’s Start of the Week.
Kyler Murray @ NYG
Daniel Jones vs ARZ
The first two QBs selected in the draft will be dueling this week in East Rutherford. They both are in play against two of the worst defenses in the league. Kyler is Jason’s Start of the Week as the Giants are allowing the 2nd most passing yards per game (285). He’s also turned on the jets running the ball much more than at the beginning of the year and compiling 10.9 yards per “scramble” on non-designed running plays), the highest in the NFL. On the other side of the ball, Jones is in play with a real ceiling against a Cardinals secondary that has allowed five QB1 weeks and the 3rd most passing yards per game (281). Jones also carries some rushing equity averaging four rushes per game started. With a 49-point over/under, this game should have points… and likely little defense.
Jacoby Brissett vs HOU
Brissett looks like a midrange streamer this week at home and should be able to get there aided by his buddy T.Y. Hilton. Hilton is averaging 103 receiving yards per game against the Texans in his career including going for 115 and 199 yards last year in their two matchups. While Brissett himself has actually been propped up with a high TD rate, I like this matchup against Deshaun Watson with a 48-point over/under. This Texans defense ranks only 14th in pass DVOA and has given up the 9th most fantasy points to opposing QBs.
Tom Brady @ NYJ
It sounds crazy to bench the GOAT as a 9.5-point road favorite. The ceiling isn’t there against a middle of the road Jets team that has a reclaimed identity with Sam Darnold back. Brady has a healthy sample size of games (36) against the Jets in his career. He’s averaging just 240 passing yards, the 4th lowest average against any team in his storied 19 years in the league. He’s just outside of the top-12 for me.
Aaron Rodgers vs OAK
It’s time to face the facts: this guy has been a top-10 QB only once this year and barely squeezed into the top-12 last week. If his main passing options are out (Davante Adams and MVS), what is the argument for a good week other than the Rodgers of yesteryear? The Pack will win this game on the ground via Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams in what should be a slow-paced affair.
Philip Rivers @ TEN
Rivers looks atrocious last week at home against the Steelers and it showed with a lack of connection with Keenan Allen. As 2-point road underdogs, the game script isn’t pretty against the slow, plodding Titans with Ryan Tannehill now behind center. The Titans rank 12th in pass DVOA and have allowed the 6th fewest fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. Rivers is on the naughty list for now until he proves his streaming capabilities.
Matthew Stafford vs MIN
After bottoming out as a non-volume passer last year, we’ve seen the rebirth of the Stafford from of old in terms of airing it out. He leads the league in aDOT (10.7) and has the highest % of 20+ yard attempts. But this Minnesota defense is definitely intimidating and I don’t foresee teammate Kerryon Johnson getting it done on the ground. Stafford’s 5.2% TD rate is due to regress especially against a team ranked 8th in pass DVOA.
Last Week: 8/12
2019 Overall Percentage: 61.1%