It was a fantasy bonanza in Week 5 with some of the highest-scoring we’ve seen across the board in years.

Here were the top-12 scoring fantasy QBs for Week 5 and a notation on the correct prediction from last week’s article.

  1. Deshaun Watson– 41.74 pts (x)
  2. Matt Ryan– 31.9 pts (x)
  3. Russell Wilson– 29.92 pts (x)
  4. Teddy Bridgewater– 27.26 pts
  5. Kyler Murray– 25.42 pts (x)
  6. Tom Brady– 23.92 pts (x)
  7. Dak Prescott– 23.22 pts
  8. Gardner Minshew II– 21.16 pts
  9. Kirk Cousins– 20.54 pts
  10. Andy Dalton– 18.98 pts (x)
  11. Patrick Mahomes– 18.54 pts (x)
  12. Jared Goff– 17.9 pts

Tedward Bridgewater! Gardner Minshew! I did not see those coming. For the week, I’ll take 7-out-12 rounding out the season-long predictions to a healthy 60 percent.

Here is a reminder for how I organize each week’s top-12 before we move on to discuss Week 6.

Four-Sures: Top-4 for the week and definite must-starts.
Com-Four-table: Four QBs with relatively safe floors with added upside to be a solid top-12 choice.
Four In the Door: Four QBs who could sneak into the top-12 including the Ballers “Stream of the Week” options and at least one daring dart throw.
Four-Get-About-It: Four QBs I’m fading this week and projecting to finish outside the top 12.  Often this includes some higher-profile QBs with tougher matchups that could underperform.

***IMPORTANT NOTE*** There are 15-20 viable QB starts each week. If you don’t see your guy listed on here, that’s ok. This article is about predicting the top-12 not necessarily who is safest. I’d strongly advise you to follow Andy, Mike, and Jason’s advice for where they have QBs ranked for Week 6.

Four-Sures

Patrick Mahomes vs. HOU
Deshaun Watson @ KC

This is an early-round QB drafter’s dream especially coming off of Watson’s 5-TD game last week. Mahomes’ ankle tweak does damper things but Tyreek Hill could also be back. This game sports a 55(!) point total and these defenses are bleeding out points and yards. The Texans are allowing a 70% completion rate and the 8th most fantasy points to opposing QBs. The Chiefs are getting destroyed on the ground as well and will have their hands full with Will Fuller and the Texans’ backup WR, DeAndre Hopkins. Kidding aside, these are the top-2 QB plays by a mile in Week 6.

Lamar Jackson vs CIN
LJax should get back on track after a hard-fought win against the Steelers that was actually dreadful for fantasy. The Ravens have the 2nd highest team implied total (29.5) and happen to play at home against one of the worst defenses in the league. To put it lightly, the Bengals are a burning heap of trash ranking 31st in pass DVOA and allowing the 2nd most QB rushing yards in the league. That’s a recipe for success for the top-5 QB.

Tom Brady vs NYG
Brady has been a top-10 QB four out of five weeks to start the year and you can pencil him in one more time. The Giants rank 29th in pass DVOA, allowed the 5th most passing yards per game (279.4), and the 7th most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. While Brady has never thrown for three TDs against the Giants, this seems like the week to bet on it especially with a 29.3 team implied total. He’s ranked as high as QB2 by Andy in the Ballers Consensus Rankings for Week 6.

Michael Reaves/Getty Images

Com-Four-table

Russell Wilson @ CLE
Wilson is on fire right now as the QB1 overall and completing an insane 73.1% of his passes. He’s on pace for a league-leading 38 passing TDs and the efficiency is through the roof once again. This is just the anomalous player that Wilson is. The Browns are a mess so the road matchup doesn’t bother me at all. Particularly this seems like another Will Dissly spot as the Browns rank 7th worst against the TE thus far.

Dak Prescott @ NYJ
Prescott and the Cowboys fell behind last week but the connection he has with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup is special even in their loss. Dak is averaging 321 passing yards per game compared to only 242 per game last year. The Jets are getting destroyed in the red zone (allowing the 3rd highest passer rating) and 19 plays over 20+ passing yards, despite playing only four games on the year. Start him with confidence.

Matt Ryan @ ARZ
Kyler Murray vs ATL
Another matchup where both QBs are clearly in play. The Cardinals rank 27th in pass DVOA and the Falcons 30th. Both teams are tied for the 2nd most passing TDs allowed (12) in five games. The Falcons have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to QBs and the Cardinals the 4th most. You get the drill by now. These defenses are bad and the only thing that will stop these offenses is their frustrating inability to convert in the red zone. Both are solid plays: Ryan has thrown for 300 yards in every game and Murray has the rushing floor and is Mike’s Start of the Week. I will personally be at this game in Arizona so if these offenses fail, point at your TV, shake your finger and blame me.

Four In the Door

Jared Goff vs SF
This looks like a rough matchup as the 49ers rank 1st in pass DVOA and 2nd overall in defensive DVOA. However, Goff is at home where he excels and the volume has been there all season long. He’s on pace for 710 attempts which would trail only Matthew Stafford‘s 2012 campaign for the most in a season. Believe in the offense, Sean McVay, and the Rams dominance in this division at home over the recent success of the 49ers. Mike has the most confidence in him as the QB8 on the week.

Kirk Cousins vs PHI
There is a bit of apprehension even as I type Cousins’ name… Last week it looked like the offense was clicking as Adam Thielen got more involved after revealing his cranky pants after the previous week’s loss. Cousins is averaging 8.3 yards per attempt (the 6th best among QBs) compared to last year’s 7.1 average,  30th among qualifying QBs. The Eagles are giving up 271 passing yards per game- 6th most in football and that includes Luke Falk‘s 120-yard poop sandwich from last week.

Hannah Foslien/Getty Images

Jameis Winston vs CAR (London)
Kyle Allen @ TB (London)
Crazy things happen across the pond like the Raiders showing some spunk and defeating the Bears. With a 48-point over/under, I think the over can clearly happen with the offenses going back and forth. If anyone has any doubts about Mike Evans, we must realize he leads the league in Air Yards and is averaging 20.6 yards per reception. Winston is averaging the highest yards per attempt and TD% of his career. He is Andy’s Start of the Week. Allen is also in play as Tampa allows 323.6 passing yards per game, the most in the NFL, and the 3rd most 20+ yard pass plays. He’s been more than respectable leading the Panthers to a 3-0 record. I expect Curtis Samuel (top-10 in Air Yards with more than Odell Beckham Jr. and Amari Cooper) to have a breakout game.

BONUS

Josh Rosen vs WAS
Washington QB @MIA
Someone from this game might have some fantasy relevancy but deciding between the inept QBs at hand is not an easy task. I am NOT recommending anyone trying to start these QBs but they could support some fantasy production. The Dolphins are allowing 10.3 yards per attempt- the worst in the NFL and the highest in NFL history. Washington just lost their coach, ranks 28th in pass DVOA, and pretends that Josh Norman is still an elite cover corner. According to PFF, he’s been roasted almost every week as one of the worst corners in the leagu.e Expect a DeVante Parker or Terry McLaurin long bomb and perhaps a 5% chance one of these QBs sneaks into the top-12.

Four-Get-About-It

Gardner Minshew vs NO
The story is great. The facial hair is superb. This week’s matchup also looks enticing as the Saints have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing QBs. His QB Finishes so far (QB15, QB15, QB16, QB13, QB8) have screamed solid streaming option but there is some regression coming especially in the turnover column (9:1 TD to INTs). I don’t love his ceiling here in a 44.5 over/under. While he’s been a top-15 option most of the year, he’s not getting in the top-12 this week.

Philip Rivers vs PIT
Rivers is always a threat to finish as a low-end QB1 but I wouldn’t be thrilled to start him this week against the Steelers. They have the 2nd highest adjusted sack rate and rank 7th best in pass DVOA. Rivers is known to implode under pressure and the Chargers could stick to the ground in what should be a slow-paced game against a 3rd string backup Develin Hodges. The Steelers are wanting to keep this a low scoring game so the ceiling of Rivers isn’t there for me in a game with a 41-point over/under.

Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images

Matthew Stafford @ GB
The Lions are coming off a bye but have a stay-away matchup for fantasy at Lambeau against a Packers defense that ranks 5th in pass DVOA. As 4.5-point road underdogs, this isn’t a spot I love. He’s had success at Lambeau as he’s averaged 294 passing yards and 2.8 TDs in his last five games. But this is a different Packers defense than in years past so no thanks, especially on a Monday night.

Carson Wentz vs MIN
Wentz has been a solid fantasy performer all year but this matchup scares me even at home. Wentz has averaged the second-lowest yards per attempt (6.6) as he’s been propped up with a high TD rate. The Vikings are ranked 9th best in pass DVOA and allowing 5.5 yards per attempt, the 5th best in the NFL. Wentz can definitely can will his way to a big game but I’d rather stream in a different direction.


Last Week: 7/12

2019 Overall Percentage: 60%


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