Predicting the Top 12 QBs for Week 6 (Fantasy Football)

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Last week’s article went 7-for-12 pushing the hit rate to 57 percent, close to our goal of 60 percent.

Here is how I break up the weekly prediction article:

Four-Sures: Top-4 for the week and definite must-starts.
Com-Four-table: Four QBs with relatively safe floors with added upside to be a solid top-12 choice.
Four In the Door: Four QBs who could sneak into the top-12 including the Ballers “Stream of the Week” options and at least one daring dart throw.
Four-Get-About-It: Four QBs I’m fading this week and projecting to finish outside the top 12.  Often this includes some higher-profile QBs with tougher matchups that could underperform.

***IMPORTANT NOTE*** This article isn’t about predicting the exact order of finish, but more about identifying which guys have a shot to be among the top-12. There will be QBs from among the 32 you don’t see listed here. If you don’t see your guy listed on here, that’s ok. This article is about predicting the top-12 not necessarily who is safest. I’d strongly advise you to follow Andy, Mike, and Jason’s advice for where they have QBs ranked for Week 6.

Four-Sures

Patrick Mahomes @ BUF
You start him. Every week. No matter what.

Kyler Murray @ DAL
It’s Kyler Murray (not Lamar Jackson) who leads NFL QBs in rushing yards through five weeks. With five rushing TDs, he is in another stratosphere of fantasy production. Oh and he plays a Dallas defense that bleeds fantasy points.

Josh Allen vs KC
Allen was stifled against the Titans last week but if John Brown returns, you have to love his upside trying to keep pace with Patrick Mahomes. The Bills lead the league in 3-WR sets and Allen is always a threat around the goal-line.

Lamar Jackson @ PHI
We’ve yet to see a true breakout game from Lamar. The Ravens are efficient (5th in points per drive) but slow (27th in seconds per play). I’m confident in his ability to get back on track against Philadelphia. If he’s on your fantasy roster, you’re starting this guy.

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Bryan Woolston/Getty Images

Com-Four-table

Deshaun Watson @ TEN
Watson finally had a huge week last week as Brandin Cooks woke up from his slumber. What was the reason for his success? Other than Bill O’Brien leaving town, Watson started incorporating more play-action to the tune of helping his yards per attempt to jump from 9.5 to 11.1 last week. Will Fuller V has scored a TD in three straight and with a 53.5 total, he’ll have to keep pace with the undefeated juggernaut known as the Tennessee Titans.

Aaron Rodgers @ TB
It is the Battle for Bay Supremacy and two future Hall of Fame QBs. Rodgers leads the NFL in percentage of 20+ yard attempts and now gets Davante Adams back. He’s been an every-week starter and there’s no reason to fade him now when his best weapon is coming back. Tampa Bay is solid against the run (allowing only 42 rushing yards per game) so they’ll need to air it out.

Ben Roethlisberger vs. CLE
After three TDs last week to Chase Claypool, Big Ben has offered a safe weekly floor and gets a juicy AFC North matchup this week. While the Browns have an elite pass rush, their defense simply can’t get off the field. Their opponents rank 8th in seconds per play, allowed the 2nd most passing yards in the league, and 12 passing TDs, the most in AFC. With a 27-point team implied total, the Steelers should roll at home. He’s the Footballers Consensus QB7 and Mike’s QB Start of the Week.

Ryan Tannehill vs HOU
Tennessee balled out on Tuesday night against Buffalo. They rank 3rd in plays per game with the highest rush success rate and 3rd highest early down success rate. In other words, they are converting first downs and Tannehill is still operating absurdly efficient in the red zone. A.J. Brown lit up the Texans in two games last year going 12/238/2 on 21 targets. Start Tanny with confidence.

Four-in-the-Door

Kirk Cousins vs. ATL
You know how bad these Falcons have been. Get this: opposing QBs have averaged 345 pass yards and three TDs per game. That is a QB1 game waiting to happen. Atlanta ranks 30th in Pass DVOA and giving up the most 20+ yard passing plays in the league. Although Captain Kirk has yet to throw over 260 this year, the matchup is too good to pass up.

Matthew Stafford @ JAX
Gardner Minshew II vs DET

If you’ve forgotten about Matthew Stafford, now is your chance to jump back on board. Here’s a list of the Jaguars’ “defensive accomplishments” this year: 3rd most passing yards allowed, highest pass success rate, 2nd most yards per play, 3rd most points per drive, dead last in Pass DVOA, and 31st in Adjusted Sack Rate. #BAD On the other side of the ball, Gardner Minshew II and the Jaguars passing game have the highest (72%) pass rate and the Lions have the worst pressure rate in NFL. With a 54.5-point total, this game could go back and forth.

Tim Warner/Getty Images

Andy Dalton vs ARZ
Dalton steps into Dak Prescott‘s shoes and can offer 75 percent of his production. That is saying a lot for a team that is leading the league in passing yards by a wide margin including the most 20+ yard passes. The Cardinals rank 26th in pass DVOA and this game sports a 55(!) point total.

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Four-Get-About-It

Tom Brady vs GB

Matt Ryan @ MIN

Jared Goff @ SF

Joe Burrow @ IND


Last Week: 7/12

2020 Hit Rate: 57%

Comments

Michael says:

No Fitz-Magic?? Outside of week 1, he’s been a stud.

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