Predicting the Top 12 QBs for Week 5 (Fantasy Football)
I send you greetings from the beach. I took a short break from Footballers action but I couldn’t shake giving my picks for the top 12 QBs for Week 5.
Here is how I break up the weekly prediction article:
Four-Sures: Top-4 for the week and definite must-starts.
Com-Four-table: Four QBs with relatively safe floors with added upside to be a solid top-12 choice.
Four In the Door: Four QBs who could sneak into the top-12 including the Ballers “Stream of the Week” options and at least one daring dart throw.
Four-Get-About-It: Four QBs I’m fading this week and projecting to finish outside the top 12. Often this includes some higher-profile QBs with tougher matchups that could underperform.
***IMPORTANT NOTE*** This article isn’t about predicting the exact order of finish, but more about identifying which guys have a shot to be among the top-12. There will be QBs from among the 32 you don’t see listed here. If you don’t see your guy listed on here, that’s ok. This article is about predicting the top-12 not necessarily who is safest. I’d strongly advise you to follow Andy, Mike, and Jason’s advice for where they have QBs ranked for Week 5.
Four-Sures
Russell Wilson vs MIN
I mean do I have to say anything at this point?
Patrick Mahomes vs LV
Mahomes had a down week in terms of production against the Patriots but this is a blow up spot. The Raiders have allowed the 4th most points per drive and registered the 3rd lowest sack rate. Vegas expects the Chiefs to put up 34+ points which is an insanely high implited total.
Lamar Jackson vs. CIN
We saw Lamar get back on track last week including 53 rushing yards and a TD on the ground. The Ravens are 13.5-point favorites with an implied point total of 32.25 points against the hapless Bengals. This is the kind of onslaught performance we saw Jackson dominate in last year.
Dak Prescott vs NYG
Dak is averaging a league-leading 422.5 passing yards per game… that is playing video games my friends. The Cowboys should steamroll their division foes in this one.
Com-Four-table
Josh Allen @ TEN
Through the first month of the season, Allen is firmly in the MVP conversation after four weeks. He ranks second in passing yards per game (331.5) and third in pass TDs per game (3). He’s already scored three rush TDs and more could be on the way. He’s an every week top-5 play until the wheels fall off.
Deshaun Watson vs. JAX
I wrote Watson up in my weekly DFS Pace of Play article as part of the Ultimate DFS Pass. The Jaguars defense has allowed the 3rd most yards per play, the 5th fastest pace in terms of seconds per play, and the 5th most fantasy points to opposing QBs. He hasn’t truly blown up yet and I think this is a great spot. The Jaguars defense also ranks dead last in Overall Defensive DVOA and dead last in Pass DVOA. I will be playing him in DFS lineups this week.
Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Kyler Murray vs. NYJ
It’s weird to think that Kyler has been off the radar compared to the other elite QBs but he’s improved as a rusher totaling 265 yards and four TDs on the ground already. His dual-threat game gives him significant upside in this smash spot against an awful Jets team that has allowed the third-most points in the league (131).
Matt Ryan vs CAR
So far I’m 4-for-4 with Ryan this year playing him Weeks 1 & 2 and fading him the last two weeks. He’s averaging 39 dropbacks per game and while Atlanta ranks 2nd in seconds per play, they have been terribly inefficient ranking 21st in points per drive. Carolina ranks 28th in defensive DVOA and 31st in sack rate. I like the Falcons to rally at home for Dan Quinn, even though the dude should’ve been fired years ago. Ryan is the Footballers Consensus QB6 on the week.
Four-in-the-Door
Jared Goff @ WSH
After back-to-back games registering three touchdowns, Jared Goff and the Rams sputtered to an ugly win against the Giants last week. fell back to earth in a cushy home matchup against the Giants last week. Through the first month of the season, Washington ranks 31st in DVOA against the pass and give up the 12th most fantasy points to the QB position. That’s QB1 territory. The Rams are 7.5-point favorites with an implied point total of 26.5 points. Goff is Andy’s QB Start of the Week.
Teddy Bridgewater at ATL
My guy Teddy B showed us some wiggle last week taking one of his six rush attempts to the house along with his 276 passing yards and two passing touchdowns. He gets a true fantasy gift in a Falcons team that has allowed the most fantasy points (32.73 per game) to opposing quarterbacks this season. He should be able to hook up with Robby Anderson as Atlanta has allowed the most 20+ yard passing plays in the league. Teddy is the Footballers Consensus QB11 on the week and Mike’s QB Start of the Week.
Gardner Minshew @ HOU
This game carries a 54-point total and with what I told you with Watson there is some shootout potential. Minshew ranks 8th in passing yards per game (284.5) and eighth in pass TDs per game (2). Eighth is incredibly awesome considering how high QB scoring has been this year. The Texans rank 27th in Overall Defensive DVOA and allowed the fifth-most points (126) to opposing QBs on the season.
Daniel Jones @ DAL
This takes some gumption and some crazy pills. This is more of a DFS play than something I recommend for redraft. The Cowboys offense ranks #1 in plays per game, #1 in seconds per play, and 2nd in yards per play. What that tells me is Jones has a chance for garbage points and with his rushing ability, there is a chance for him to hit a ceiling in this one. Dallas has allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season.
Adam Glanzman/Getty Images
Four-Get-About-It
Ryan Tannehill vs BUF
Yes they’ve had some rest but I don’t love the matchup against the Bills with a depleted pass-catching group. Corey Davis and Adam Humphries are out and A.J. Brown is just returning. The confidence isn’t there for me.
Tom Brady @ CHI
Five TDs last week doesn’t change the fact this team is still hurting and on a short week. I wouldn’t trust the veteran on the road against Chicago.
Joe Burrow @ BAL
Baltimore’s defense has not been invincible but I think the rookie gets taught a lesson in this one. I’m calling for at least three turnovers here and not someone I’d like to start in redraft formats.
Baker Mayfield @ IND
It was exciting last week against Dallas but for fantasy, he’s been an afterthought. Expect that pace to be slow and Baker to disappoint against arguably one of the best defenses in the league.
Last Week: 7/12
2020 Hit Rate: 55%
Comments
I think you gotta go Kyler over Teddy. Both should feast in their respective matchups against horrendous defenses. Where I think Kyler will separate himself is him using his legs against the Jets who cannot stop the run with any effectiveness whatsoever.
Kyler or Teddy B. 6 pt td
Zero Chance I trust Ryan without Julio this week, I’d rather play Teddy in that same game.