Fantasy Footballers Show Recap: The TRUTH About Fantasy QBs in 2020, Part 2

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If you missed any part of The Fantasy Footballers TRUTH about fantasy QB series, I have you covered. In Part 1 of the show, the guys covered QBs 1-8 on the season and we’ll hit on some more notable guys in Part 2. This part of the series is especially important because it will help you separate the contenders from the pretenders in QBs that will likely be taken in the late rounds of 2021. Sometimes the end-of-year stat line for a player doesn’t tell the whole story and can even be misleading about a player’s success or failure. That’s exactly what the TRUTH episodes are all about. The Ballers take a deeper dive into a player’s season and give you the TRUTH about their performance to better prepare you for the 2021 season.

If you didn’t get a chance to listen to Part 1, you can read about it here and if you’re looking for even more QB info from this past season, check out Kyle Borgognoni’s article, 25 QBs Stats from 2020.

Quick Explanation

The Fantasy Footballers base QB fantasy points on 4 points-per-passing TDs, however, the data used for the splits in this article is 6 points-per-passing TD. Consistency scores are based on a QBs Great, Good, and Bust games. The scores are calculated using the following parameters:

Great Games are more than 26 points or more fantasy points scored
Good Games are more than 20 points or more fantasy points scored
Bust Games are fewer than 15 points fantasy points scored
*Missed Games don’t count against consistency score

9. Justin Herbert (ADP: NA) – Consistency Rank: 6
1st half of season consistency rank: 4 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 7

15 games — 396/595 for 4336/31/10 — 55/234/5 rushing
Great 33% | Good 67% | Bust 13%
Defenses: -.43 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -3.33 fantasy points on average at Home

There will be decisions to be made for fantasy managers when it comes to Justin Herbert. From weeks 4-11, he was amazing, but the numbers started to slow down towards the end of the year. You’ll need to decide whether or not you trust him or not come draft season.  His ADP is certain to rise (he didn’t have one in 2020), but he is likely to fall past Round 7. There is likely going to be one guy in each league that thinks he is going to be the next big breakout QB after a stellar rookie season and that could make his ADP volatile. He will have a new coach, OC, and played behind the worst OL in football last year, 2021 will feel like an entirely new scenario for Herbert.

10. Lamar Jackson (ADP: QB2 / 2.08) – Consistency Rank: 8
1st half of season consistency rank: 18 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 2

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15 games — 242/376 for 2757/26/9 — 159/1005/7 rushing
Great 27% | Good 60% | Bust 20%
Defenses: -4.41 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -2.92 fantasy points on average at Home

It is fair to say that Jackson did not return your investment for taking him as the QB2 in drafts last summer. He certainly seemed to find his footing in the end half of the season and that will likely keep his ADP high again in 2021. The question now is: What changed in the 2nd half and how will that translate to 2021? As his defense started to get hurt and the Ravens needed him to do more, his numbers improved. There is no reason to think this defense gets worse in 2021. His rushing numbers will always keep him viable but if the passing doesn’t improve, he will have trouble living up to a top-5 ADP.

11. Kirk Cousins (ADP: QB23 – 209 overall) – Consistency Rank: 14
1st half of season consistency rank: 25 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 4

16 games — 349/516 for 4265/35/13 — 32/156/1 rushing
Great 13% | Good 50% | Bust 25%
Defenses: -5.43 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +6.22 fantasy points on average at Home

Cousins, like Ryan Tannehill, was a wonderful streaming option in 2020. He beat up on bad defenses and was better at home than on the road. If he had a bad defense, at home, you knew you could count on Cousins and that is a big deal for those that stream the position. The year-end numbers look great, and he was certainly helped by the emergence of Justin Jefferson, but this is the worst fantasy finish for a QB that finished and 35 TDs. In most years, this would be a top-5 season and that could mean Cousins has sneaky value in 2021. He, more than most, will be heavily affected by his 2021 schedule.

12. Matt Ryan (ADP: QB8 / 7.09) – Consistency Rank: 22
1st half of season consistency rank: 19 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 20

16 games — 407/626 for 4581/26/11 — 29/92/2 rushing
Great 19% | Good 38% | Bust 44%
Defenses: -8.49 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -.7 fantasy points on average at Home

Ryan was an ugly anomaly in 2020. He finished as the QB12 but was ranked #22 in Consistency and busted 44% of his games. He played most of the season without Julio Jones and is likely a better QB than what we saw in 2020. There is also a chance that they add another, younger, QB and that could make Ryan undraftable in 2021. The Ballers are afraid that Ryan could take up the mantle of the retired Philip Rivers (Pee River) and become “Yellow Ice” and forever untrustworthy in fantasy football moving forward,

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13. Derek Carr (ADP: QB24 – 212 overall)) – Consistency Rank: 16
1st half of season consistency rank: 15 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 13

16 games — 348/517 for 4103/27/9 — 39/140/3 rushing
Great 6% | Good 50% | Bust 38%
Defenses: -1.11 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -.3 fantasy points on average at Home

Note: At this point in the show, the guys started just moving thru the QBs very quickly to give thoughts on as many as possible. I will try to sum up in a sentence or two.

Not enough Great games and too many Bust games to even be considered a streaming option. Not enough weapons, the Waller-us and nothing else.

14. Ben Roethlisberger (ADP: QB15 / 11.03) – Consistency Rank: 19
1st half of season consistency rank: 20 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 13

15 games — 399/608 for 3803/33/10 — 25/11/0 rushing
Great 7% | Good 33% | Bust 33%
Defenses: -.92 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +3.47 fantasy points on average at Home

Note: At this point in the show, the guys started just moving thru the QBs very quickly to give thoughts on as many as possible. I will try to sum up in a sentence or two.

Impossible to count on anymore. That many attempts and still only 3800 yards means he is starting to look like Brees and Rivers. He’s done.

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15. Matthew Stafford (ADP: QB12 / 9.08) – Consistency Rank: 21
1st half of season consistency rank: 17 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 23

16 games — 339/528 for 4084/26/10 — 29/112/0 rushing
Great 6% | Good 31% | Bust 31%
Defenses: +1.19 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +1.93 fantasy points on average at Home

Note: At this point in the show, the guys started just moving thru the QBs very quickly to give thoughts on as many as possible. I will try to sum up in a sentence or two.

The loss of Kenny Golladay did not help and the Lions could lose both Golladay and Marvin Jones this offseason. Stafford himself may not even be in Detroit next year. So many questions heading into 2021.

Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images

16. Cam Newton (ADP: QB14 / 10.05) – Consistency Rank: 23
1st half of season consistency rank: 21 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 23

15 games — 242/368 for 2657/8/10 — 137/592/12 rushing
Great 13% | Good 33% | Bust 40%
Defenses: -12.12 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -6.72 fantasy points on average at Home

Note: At this point in the show, the guys started just moving thru the QBs very quickly to give thoughts on as many as possible. I will try to sum up in a sentence or two.

D. U. N. Unlikely to start another game unless somebody gets hurt.

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17. Baker Mayfield (ADP: QB19 / 13.06) – Consistency Rank: 28
1st half of season consistency rank: 27 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 15

16 games — 305/486 for 3563/26/8 — 54/165/1 rushing
Great 19% | Good 25% | Bust 44%
Defenses: -1.37 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -3.85 fantasy points on average at Home

Note: At this point in the show, the guys started just moving thru the QBs very quickly to give thoughts on as many as possible. I will try to sum up in a sentence or two.

A lot of the bad that Baker faced in 2020 was out of his control, specifically very bad weather. He seemed to look better without Odell Beckham and it will be interesting to see how this team handles OBJ this offseason.

18. Jared Goff (ADP: QB18 / 12.05) – Consistency Rank: 26
1st half of season consistency rank: 22 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 28

15 games — 370/552 for 3952/20/13 — 51/99/4 rushing
Great 7% | Good 33% | Bust 53%
Defenses: +5.61 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -8.62 fantasy points on average at Home

Note: Not discussed on the show.

19. Teddy Bridgewater (ADP: QB28 – 223 overall)) – Consistency Rank: 27
1st half of season consistency rank: 24 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 25

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15 games — 340/492 for 3733/15/11 — 53/279/5 rushing
Great 13% | Good 27% | Bust 47%
Defenses: -.12 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -1.86 fantasy points on average at Home

Note: Not discussed on the show.

20. Philip Rivers (ADP: QB20 / 13.11) – Consistency Rank: 29
1st half of season consistency rank: 26 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 27

16 games — 369/543 for 4169/24/11 — 18/-8/0 rushing
Great 0% | Good 19% | Bust 50%
Defenses: -2.89 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +.04 fantasy points on average at Home

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Note: Not discussed on the show.

22. Carson Wentz (ADP: QB13 / 10.03) – Consistency Rank: 25
1st half of season consistency rank: 13 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 36

12 games — 251/437 for 2620/16/15 — 52/276/5 rushing
Great 17% | Good 33% | Bust 50%
Defenses: -.35 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +7.35 fantasy points on average at Home

Note: Not discussed on the show.

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25. Joe Burrow (ADP: QB17 / 11.12) – Consistency Rank: 20
1st half of season consistency rank: n/a | 2nd half of season consistency rank: n/a

10 games — 264/404 for 2688/13/5 — 37/142/3 rushing
Great 10% | Good 30% | Bust 30%
Defenses: -11.22 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +5.82 fantasy points on average at Home

Note: At this point in the show, the guys started just moving thru the QBs very quickly to give thoughts on as many as possible. I will try to sum up in a sentence or two.

We didn’t see a lot of him as a rookie but you had to like what you saw. The knee injury is huge and he may not be 100% even by the start of 2021. The future looks bright but you may not be able to trust yet in 2021.

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33. Dak Prescott (ADP: QB3 / 5.01) – Consistency Rank: 7
1st half of season consistency rank: n/a | 2nd half of season consistency rank: n/a

5 games — 151/222 for 1856/9/4 — 18/93/3 rushing
Great 60% | Good 60% | Bust 20%
Defenses: -12.64 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +5.3 fantasy points on average at Home

Note: At this point in the show, the guys started just moving thru the QBs very quickly to give thoughts on as many as possible. I will try to sum up in a sentence or two.

DO NOT FORGET ABOUT HIM IN 2021. He’s obviously far down the rankings but he was fantastic when he played. He is a free agent but if he is back in Dallas, he feels like a lock for a top-5 fantasy QB.

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