Fantasy Footballers Show Recap: The TRUTH About Fantasy QBs in 2020, Part 1
In the most recent episode of The Fantasy Footballers Podcast (with best friends Andy and Mike, sans Jason), the guys discuss the truth about fantasy QBs in 2020. Sometimes the end-of-year stat line for a player doesn’t tell the whole story and can even be misleading about a player’s success or failure. That’s exactly what the TRUTH episodes are all about. The Ballers take a deeper dive into a player’s season and give you the TRUTH about their performance to better prepare you for the 2021 season.
If you’re looking for even more QB info from this past season, check out Kyle Borgognoni’s article, 25 QBs Stats from 2020.
The Fantasy Footballers base QB fantasy points on 4 points-per-passing TDs, however, the data used for the splits in this article is 6 points-per-passing TD. Consistency scores are based on a QBs Great, Good, and Bust games. The scores are calculated using the following parameters:
Great Games are more than 26 points or more fantasy points scored
Good Games are more than 20 points or more fantasy points scored
Bust Games are fewer than 15 points fantasy points scored
*Missed Games don’t count against consistency score
1. Josh Allen (ADP: QB11 / 8.12) – Consistency Rank: 4
1st half of season consistency rank: 8 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 3
16 games — 396/572 for 4544/37/10 — 102/421/8 rushing
Great 50% | Good 56% | Bust 6%
Defenses: -.84 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -4.82 fantasy points on average at Home
Allen had an interesting season. He opened up absolutely nuclear but hit a rough stretch right in the middle of the season. That stretch scared a lot of fantasy owners that the beginning was a mirage but Allen bounced back in a big way and was the #1 fantasy QB on the season. The biggest leap that Allen took was definitely in completion %, where he went from last among starters in 2019 to 4th in 2020. The biggest issue with Allen now is how high he may be drafted in 2021 after finishing as the top-dog in 2020.
2. Kyler Murray (ADP: QB5 / 5.11) – Consistency Rank: 3
1st half of season consistency rank: T-1st | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 12th
16 games — 375/558 for 3971/26/12 — 133/819/11 rushing
Great 50% | Good 69% | Bust 13%
Defenses: -5.44 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +9.76 fantasy points on average at Home
Murray put fantasy managers in a tough position to end the season. He was so good at the start of the year that after he was hurt, it was hard for managers to bench him, and all of his bust games came in the fantasy playoffs. Murray was far from perfect this year, he made some mistakes that were flat out egregious this season, but his overall production helps hide those mishaps. Murray has the 2nd most offensive yards ever for a QB in two seasons. He will be highly drafted next season but you have to enjoy what you’ve gotten from the kid so far.
3. Aaron Rodgers (ADP: QB10 / 8.10) – Consistency Rank: 1
1st half of season consistency rank: 5 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 1
16 games — 372/526 for 4299/48/5 — 38/149/3 rushing
Great 38% | Good 81% | Bust 6%
Defenses: -5.23 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -3.69 fantasy points on average at Home
There were a lot of questions surrounding Rodgers coming into the season and it’s safe to say he answered all of them. He had one very bad game this year but delivered week in and out other than that game against Tampa Bay. He increased his TDs from 26 last season to 48 in 2020. He had the best TD rate % of his entire career. There isn’t much more to say about his stellar season…so now we start to question his 2021. He’ll be 37 years old and TD regression is always looming, but there is little to suggest he won’t be a top-tier QB again next season.
4. Patrick Mahomes (ADP: QB1 / 2.04) – Consistency Rank: 2
1st half of season consistency rank: 3 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 6
15 games — 390/588 for 4740/38/6 — 62/308/2 rushing
Great 40% | Good 73% | Bust 7%
Defenses: +3.38 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -.82 fantasy points on average at Home
This is basically what you can expect from Mahomes, every year of his career. He is consistent, has more than a few amazing games, and he likely to finish as a top-5 QB. Every year. Of his last 45 starts, he has finished as a fantasy QB1 in 34 games. You could argue whether or not he returned value, as the 4th pick in the 2nd Round. With what you can get from late-round QBs (Allen, Rodgers), it is hard to justify spending that high of a pick on Mahomes, but you know what you’re going to get from him.
5. Deshaun Watson (ADP: QB6 / 6.05) – Consistency Rank: 5
1st half of season consistency rank: 6 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 5
16 games — 382/544 for 4823/33/7 — 90/444/3 rushing
Great 25% | Good 69% | Bust 13%
Defenses: -6.18 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +1.45 fantasy points on average at Home
Watson lost his best WR, lost his head coach (though that can be considered a positive), and he lost offensive linemen and wide receivers seemingly every week. He still had the most passing yards, passing TDs, and fewest INTs of his career. Watson scored 25 fantasy points-per-game after Week 5 when Bill O’Brien was let go and was the QB1 from that point on. The truth for him in 2021 is about as big a mystery as exists in the NFL right now. Will he even be a Texan? Who will be his coach? Those two things alone will make up the biggest part of his narrative heading into next season though, after this season, he almost looks situation-proof.
6. Russell Wilson (ADP: QB4 / 5.08) – Consistency Rank: 10
1st half of season consistency rank: T-1st | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 18
16 games — 384/558 for 4212/40/13 — 83/513/2 rushing
Great 31% | Good 63% | Bust 25%
Defenses: -4.5 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +4.34 fantasy points on average at Home
For the 2nd straight season, Wilson started the season on fire and finished very poorly. There will be a new offensive coordinator (and that could be Adam Gase) and the Seahawks are already starting to sound like they want to get back to running the ball more next year. Wilson will need to see a massive drop in ADP in 2021 for him to feel like a viable option as your fantasy QB.
7. Ryan Tannehill (ADP: QB21 / 13.05) – Consistency Rank: 11
1st half of season consistency rank: 10 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 10
16 games — 315/481 for 3819/33/7 — 43/266/7 rushing
Great 38% | Good 44% | Bust 19%
Defenses: -7.15 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: +6.19 fantasy points on average at Home
Tannehill was basically the opposite of Russell Wilson in 2020. He was pretty disappointing for most of the early part of the season but looked much better from Week 11 on. Of all of the QBs ranked this highly, Tannehill is the only one that could be considered a streaming option every week. He is not a guy you want to lock into your lineup but he is a viable option for all managers that stream the position. His performance against bottom-16 defenses was 7 fantasy points more on average than when he played a top defense. That makes it pretty clear when you can play Tannehill, and that is another plus for the streaming crowd. The Titans did lose their OC, so there are changes coming in Tennessee.
8. Tom Brady (ADP: QB9 / 8.01) – Consistency Rank: 12
1st half of season consistency rank: 13 | 2nd half of season consistency rank: 9
16 games — 401/610 for 4633/40/12 — 30/6/3 rushing
Great 31% | Good 56% | Bust 31%
Defenses: -8.12 fantasy points on average against Top-16
Home/Road Split: -8 fantasy points on average at Home
Much like Tannehill, Brady was far better to end the season and beat up on bad defenses. Brady was also far better on the road than he was at home in Tampa Bay. It was a weird year. There was a lot of good in this season for Brady. He led the league in air yards, had the most “deep-ball” completions of his career, but this offense could look completely different in 2021. Brady will be 44 years old and, as of now, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown are not under contract. It was already hard to know when you could start Tom Brady this season, and that will only get harder in 2021.