Best Ball Rankings: QBs to Take a Stance On (Fantasy Football)

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Best Ball season is officially here! All summer long, Kyle and I will be discussing best ball strategy, rankings, and values on the Fantasy Footballers DFS Podcast. On last week’s show, we discussed some of the biggest discrepancies in our best ball rankings relative to ADP. Below are the players are the QB position that we’re taking a stance on early in the offseason – be sure to check out our full rankings in the DFS Pass, exclusively part of the Ultimate Draft Kit+.

Editor’s Note: This article is a preview of the BestBall content found only in the DFS Pass. The subsequent articles that follow will be exclusive to subscribers only.

Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
Underdog QB Rank Betz Rank Borg Rank Overall ADP
Joe Burrow 9 12 15 91.4

The hype surrounding Joe Burrow is gaining steam, especially with the news that he’s expected to be ready for Week 1 coming off major knee reconstruction surgery. For my full thoughts and analysis regarding Burrow and other players coming off injury, be sure to check out the Injury Report section of the Ultimate Draft Kit, but here’s the cliff notes – Burrow is coming off a significant left knee injury, with surgery taking place in December. It’s a lot to ask for an athlete to return to 100% in just 9 months, so while he’s likely to be ready for Week 1, will he be at full strength? Maybe (probably) not. At QB9 ADP, Burrow’s price seems to be getting out of range. In 10 games last year, Joey B only had one weekly finish inside the top 12 at the position.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Washington Football Team
Underdog QB Rank Betz Rank Borg Rank Overall ADP
Ryan Fitzpatrick 21 19 26 152.4

Ryan Fitzpatrick is set to put up fantasy stat lines as good as his beard, which if you’re not familiar, is excellent. Over Fitz’s last 20 starts, his average weekly finish at the QB position is 12.9, well above his current ADP. In that time span, he’s finished as a top 10 QB in fantasy 12 times, indicating Fitzpatrick has the ceiling we’re looking for in best-ball formats. While there’s some mild risk that Fitzpatrick won’t start the entire season given his track record (hasn’t started a full season at QB since 2015), that risk seems to be baked into his ADP. Looking at the Washington depth chart, this may be the Bearded King’s most stable situation given that his current “competition” for starts is career backup Kyle Allen and journeyman, Taylor Heinicke. Fitz also finds himself littered with dynamic weapons in Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Dyami Brown, Logan Thomas, and Antonio Gibson out of the backfield.

Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Underdog QB Rank Betz Rank Borg Rank Overall ADP
Tom Brady 13 10 9 108

There’s a reason to be excited about Tom Brady‘s upside in 2021. Yes, he’s old. Yes, the bottom will fall out at some point (maybe it won’t). But when you look at QBs who play in Bruce Arians’ system, those players usually struggle in their first season under center – not Tom Brady. Let’s further consider what was going on with TB12 in 2020 – it was his first season in a new system, switching teams at the age of 42, and there was a shortened offseason thanks to the Covid-19 pandemic. Considering these factors while trying to establish rapport with his playmakers, there’s intrigue about how good Tom Brady can be for fantasy in his second season in Tampa. From Week 7 on, Brady was fantasy’s QB6 and that was with Mike Evans battling a hyperextended knee for the final few games and Chris Godwin in and out of the lineup thanks to finger and hamstring injuries. With all of his weapons back and healthy, look for Brady to excel in year two and return massive value on his current QB13 ADP. After all, he was fantasy’s QB8 last year.

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Trey Lance, QB, San Francisco 49ers
Underdog QB Rank Betz Rank Borg Rank Overall ADP
Trey Lance 15 15 12 116.7

I love getting ahead of the market on a QB with the rushing upside of a Trey Lance. Don’t forget, Lance once rushed for 1,100 yards in a single season while playing in college, giving us the immense upside we’re looking for with rushing QBs to help elevate rosters in best ball tournaments. Expect his ADP to skyrocket as the summer goes on, making him a player to invest in early thanks to the projected discount in ADP in June relative to August. Lance has some of the best weapons in football with George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk all back healthy for the 49ers, and he’s got one of the best offensive minds in football leading the way in Kyle Shanahan. The Niners have said Jimmy Garoppolo will start, but the team’s actions and NFL trends say otherwise. The team gave up a lot to move up in the NFL Draft to the No. 3 spot to select Lance, and the data of QBs selected inside the top 10 shows that the vast majority of these guys start in year one. Note: I would not invest in Lance at this ranking/ADP in redraft formats as it does seem unlikely he starts in Week 1. Remember, however, that in best ball, we’re shooting for upside and ceiling as these formats heavily favor top-scoring rosters.

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