The Path to a WR1 Fantasy Football Season: Malik Nabers
Editor’s Note: This profile is part of our annual Path to a Fantasy WR1 series. For our methodology and an outline of the process, make sure you read the 2024 Path to WR1 Series Primer.
Rookie fever has hit the NFL hard. Fantasy football will especially feel the impact of this year’s draft class, with each of the first 14 selections lining up on the offensive side of the ball. One of the more interesting draftees to consider this fantasy season is Giants rookie Malik Nabers. Nabers, selected sixth overall, may be Daniel Jones’ last hope in holding onto his starting role for the Giants, and projects to easily be Jones’ most quality target of his NFL career. As one of the greatest wide receiver prospects we’ve seen in recent history, Malik Nabers has the talent to be a top fantasy receiver for years to come. Just how much can he deliver in his first season? Let’s find out.
Find out the full statistical projections for the Footballers Consensus WR1s in the Ultimate Draft Kit.
2023 Season Recap
LSU certainly has a seat at the table when it comes to the debate of where WR University lies. Even in just the last five years, the Tigers have produced two incredible pass catchers, Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase. In his three seasons with LSU, Malik Nabers truly broke out in 2023.
| Season | Games | Tgts | Rec | Yds | Yds/Rec | TDs | YPRR | aDOT | Tgt Share |
| 2021 | 11 | 42 | 26 | 400 | 15.4 | 3 | 1.91 | 11.8 | 10.4% |
| 2022 | 14 | 80 | 58 | 726 | 12.5 | 1 | 2.14 | 10.5 | 20.7% |
| 2023 | 13 | 124 | 86 | 1545 | 18.0 | 14 | 3.81 | 12.5 | 31.9% |
This is especially remarkable when considering that one of his teammates, Brian Thomas Jr., was also selected in the first round of the 2024 draft. Nabers showed steady increases in the deep stats we care most about, including yards per route run (YPRR), average depth of target (aDOT), and target share.
Another incredibly important stat for rookie wide receivers is breakout age (BOA). In simple terms, it is the age at which a collegiate wide receiver meets a particular threshold of ‘elite’ production. The earlier a receiver breaks out, the better. As shown in the data visualization above, Malik Nabers had one of the earliest BOAs of the 2024 class, in addition to posting the highest YPRR in 2023.
The Path for 2024
Daniel “Danny Dimes” Jones has been known to chuck more nickels than dimes as of recently. However, it is important to note that he has not had a good situation around him for the last few years. PFF ranked the 2023 Giants offensive line 30th overall, with the sole highlight being an injured Andrew Thomas. Thomas played in only two of Jones’ six games in 2023.
The receiving room isn’t that different from the offensive line. The Giants’ skill position players didn’t do much to create surplus fantasy points last season, as shown in the graph above. Saquon Barkley and Darren Waller are both gone, meaning a lot of targets (and fantasy points) are up for grabs in 2024. Malik Nabers has the talent and athleticism to create surplus points at a high volume in 2024.
In 2022, among 31 qualifying quarterbacks, Daniel Jones ranked 11th in EPA per play and 10th in success rate per RBSDM. Daniel Jones isn’t as bad as we think. Instead, he simply hasn’t received any help from his teammates.
Walking into one of the worst offenses in the league, Malik Nabers secured the role of his team’s WR1 the moment he was drafted. He will have a hefty dosage of targets coming his way from an underrated quarterback in games where they are likely behind; this will produce a high-volume passing game script for the Giants.
Target Share
Roughly 200 targets are up for grabs thanks to the departures of Darren Waller, Saquon Barkley, Parris Campbell, Sterling Shepard, and others. While I don’t expect Malik Nabers to find himself nearing a third of his team’s targets in the NFL as he did at LSU last year, he should easily lead the team in the category.
Nabers’ YPRR steadily increased in his three years at LSU, with an amazing 3.81 in his third year. This should be reflected in his ability to earn targets in 2024.
Receptions & Catch Rate
Malik Nabers caught ~70% of his targets at LSU from 2022–2023, up from ~61% in 2021. This is once again a figure I expect to be unsustainable in the NFL with a higher level of opposing defensive talent, but it sure is promising for his potential.
Yards & aDOT
Another promising stat from his college days is Nabers’ average depth of target (aDOT). He finished with an aDOT of 12.5 in 2023, proving his ability to earn opportunities downfield. I expect the Giants to use him in many different ways, anywhere from screen passes to go-balls.
Touchdown Upside
While he may not be as tall as other end zone threats at six feet, his jumping ability is elite and should allow him to make big plays when it counts, as he did in college.
Malik Nabers was drafted with pick 6 of round 1 in the 2024 draft class. He scored a 9.67 #RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 112 out of 3402 WR from 1987 to 2024. https://t.co/suDlfS7AZI pic.twitter.com/ixSniXGExf
— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) April 26, 2024
Kent Lee Platte’s RAS metric grades Malik Nabers as a very well-rounded athlete, especially in terms of his explosiveness.
Conclusion
Incoming NFL talent can be incredibly unpredictable, especially in the first season. Over time, we’ve become much better at identifying different stats and factors that can be predictive and therefore indicative of future success in the NFL. On paper, Malik Nabers has the potential to be a superstar early, thanks to the unique combination of his athletic ability, collegiate production, and instantaneous opportunity. The film backs this notion up further.
Every Malik Nabers TD from 2023: pic.twitter.com/r79WBTTU9A
— Austin Abbott (@AustinAbbottFF) July 1, 2024
The Ballers currently have Nabers as their consensus WR26. Having a sizable workload all but guaranteed provides a safe floor for Nabers. If he breaks out in year one, as did another comparable former LSU Tiger in Ja’Marr Chase, Malik Nabers could be a fantasy WR1 in 2024 and for years to come.