Targets Per Route Run: Week 4 (Fantasy Football)

Welcome back to the weekly Targets Per Route Run Report, and thanks for making it part of your weekly prep. Let’s look back on the games just played, and try to see where that points us for Week 4 and beyond.

Quick refresher: TPRR = targets ÷ routes run. It’s an on-field efficiency signal that often leads production by a week or two. As a general guideline, ~20% is considered a baseline; 25–30% is excellent, and anything above 30% is elite territory.

Week 3 TPRR Leaders

Data: pff.com

Week 3 Reactions

After a one-week break, Puka Nacua tops the list again with a 50% TPRR on 30 routes. It’s mind-bending stuff, and it just cements Puka as your surest bet in fantasy, as long as Matthew Stafford stays on the field. Did you know? When Puka has played more than 50% of snaps in a game, he’s never seen fewer than seven targets. But we already know how good the likes of Puka and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are, so let’s dive into the target rates for players that might not be as untouchable.

• Emeka Egbuka (35% TPRR) is looking like a league winner. With Mike Evans out for the next few weeks, Egbuka should feast. Chris Godwin is slated to make his return against Dallas, but that should only serve to relieve some of the coverage on Egbuka. Sterling Shephard could have some relevance in deeper leagues, but Egbuka looks most likely to benefit from those vacated Evans targets.
• Gotta be, gotta be Golden? Not so fast, my fellow demon hunters. Jayden Reed‘s absence is a positive sign for the rookie, but it was Josh Jacobs who saw the targets bump in Week 3. Jacobs only ran 17 routes, but he saw nine targets, good for a 52% TPRR. Matthew Golden‘s snap share passed the 70% mark in Week 3, so the signs are positive for more involvement. It remains to be seen if he can earn the targets from Jordan Love.
• He’s a hot name on waivers this week, but Tre Tucker (27.3% TPRR) may be more than just a flash in the pan. Tucker’s TPRR has risen steadily each week, and he looks to be the preferred outside receiver for Las Vegas. Jakobi Meyers will still get his targets out of the slot, and Brock Bowers has yet to get going this year, so we can’t expect much of a repeat of Week 3. In the right matchups, though, you could do worse than Tucker in a pinch. Week 4 is another golden opportunity, so we’ll see if Tucker can provide consistent value.

Morgan Tencza-Imagn Images

• Christian Kirk made his season debut for Houston and immediately earned eight targets. It’s not going to earn him a starting spot on my rosters while the Texans look this bad, but it eliminates any near-term hope I had for Jayden Higgins or Jaylin Noel.

Week 3 #KardioKings

• Zay Flowers has had a great start to the season, but he took a back seat to Rashod Bateman in Baltimore’s Week 3 loss to Detroit. Flowers only saw three targets on 35 routes, i.e., .8.6% TPRR. Concern Level: Low. The Lions were hounding Lamar Jackson all night, and there were still a few plays where Flowers could’ve turned a tough night into a big game. He should get back on track.
• Ladd McConkey (13% TPRR); Ladd has been out-targeted by one or both of Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston every week. You would assume Ladd will get more of the passing pie as the season goes on, but the Chargers are 3-0 and have no need to force-feed the ball when everything else is working.  Concern level: Medium-high. 

That’s it for this week. The full list is below. Feel free to ask any questions in the comments on specific players. Starting next week, we’ll add “season so far” analysis to see where trends are starting to develop.

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TPRR – The Full List (WRs in Week 3, Min. 15 routes)