Targets Per Route Run Report: Week 9 (Fantasy Football)

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Welcome back to the TPRR report as we look ahead to Week 9 in the NFL. Fantasy managers will be without players from the Lions, 49ers, Jaguars, and Broncos this week, and several receivers are looking at a future without their starting quarterbacks. All of this means we need to put on our thinking caps for Week 9 and beyond.

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This weekly series gives actionable insights for the week ahead based on Targets Per Route Run (TPRR). TPRR is calculated by dividing a player’s targets by their routes run and expressing it as a percentage. We use this statistic to evaluate a player’s efficiency and production related to their opportunities. To learn more about TPRR and why it’s a useful tool, check out the 2023 season preview.

Week 8 Recap

Here’s a look at Week 8’s top 15 in Targets Per Route Run (minimum 🎉 15  🎉 routes run):

*Route and Target Data via PFF.com

Takeaways

  • The box score wasn’t kind to DK Metcalf in Week 8, seeing him finish outside the top 36 for the second time this season. However, Metcalf racked up 14 targets against Cleveland, which was one more than Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba combined. Currently the WR45 on the season, Metcalf looks like he’s moving past his injuries and represents a buy-low opportunity moving forward.
  • Diontae Johnson (28.6% TPRR) was impressive in his return to action last week, but he made Week 7 look tame in comparison to this week’s 14-target showing. The scoring opportunities are less than ideal in Pittsburgh, but Johnson is an elite PPR option moving forward.
  • Rashid Shaheed (18.8% TPRR) and Michael Thomas (30.4% TPRR) are opposite ends of the spectrum, but both could be options in Week 9 when New Orleans takes on Chicago at home. Thomas’ days of topping the fantasy charts are behind him, but he’s averaging over seven targets per game and should provide a safe floor as a flex option. Shaheed, on the other hand, is the definitive boom-bust player in 2023. His sub-20% TPRR reflects his volatility, but he has week-winning upside every time he takes the field. On the season, Shaheed has finished either as a WR1 or outside the top 50 each week.

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Season Leaders

Here are the season leaders in TPRR among qualified receivers through Week 8, with the minimum routes run set at 105. The right-hand column (+/-) shows a player’s movement in the rankings from week to week.

*Route and Target Data via PFF.com

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Biggest Risers

  • CeeDee Lamb (24.03% TPRR) just reminded everyone that he’s him, seeing 14 targets and securing 12 receptions in the Week 8 beatdown of the Rams. After a pedestrian (by his standards) start to the season, Lamb exploded out of the Cowboys’ bye week and looks to be back on track for the remainder of the season.
  • Gabe Davis (15.73% TPRR) jumped 11 spots this week to #65 in this list (full list below). Davis has never been a TPRR hero, but his 12 targets in Week 8 are the most he’s seen since Week 18 in 2021. It might just be a blip on the radar, but it’s enticing to think of Gabe the Babe’s potential if he is targeted more consistently by Josh Allen.

Biggest Fallers

  • DJ Chark (12.5% TPRR) has failed to eclipse 50 yards in all but one game this season.  Chark can give you a game but isn’t an option I’m pivoting to, despite a nice matchup with Indianapolis in Week 9. He’s still 80% rostered in Sleeper leagues, but other waiver wire pickups present better options.
  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba (19% TPRR) saved his fantasy day with a touchdown, but he’ll be fighting for targets with Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf both healthy again.
  • Davante Adams is still dominating targets in Las Vegas, but the poor quarterback play is a good reminder that raw targets don’t tell the whole story. This writer is hoping for a miracle on trade deadline day for Mr. January.

Full TPRR List

This list includes all WRs with at least 90 routes run on the season.

Targets Per Route Run – Season Leaders (Min. 105 Routes)
Rk Player Team Routes Targets TPRR + /-
1 Tyreek Hill MIA 238 84 35.29% 0
2 Stefon Diggs BUF 299 88 29.43% 0
3 Ja’Marr Chase CIN 285 83 29.12% 3
4 Davante Adams LV 269 77 28.62% -1
5 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 263 74 28.14% 0
6 Puka Nacua LA 299 84 28.09% -2
7 Cooper Kupp LA 136 37 27.21% 1
8 A.J. Brown PHI 300 80 26.67% 1
9 Brandon Aiyuk SF 192 51 26.56% 2
10 Justin Jefferson MIN 199 52 26.13% 2
11 Jaylen Waddle MIA 203 53 26.11% 5
12 Rashee Rice KC 146 38 26.03% -5
13 Garrett Wilson NYJ 251 65 25.90% 4
14 Keenan Allen LAC 279 71 25.45% 0
15 DeAndre Hopkins TEN 194 49 25.26% -2
16 Chris Olave NO 303 76 25.08% 4
17 Adam Thielen CAR 286 70 24.48% 4
18 Mike Evans TB 213 52 24.41% -8
19 Demario Douglas NE 115 28 24.35% #N/A
20 CeeDee Lamb DAL 233 56 24.03% 15
21 Marquise Brown ARZ 279 67 24.01% -2
22 Nico Collins HST 204 48 23.53% 4
23 Kendrick Bourne NE 235 55 23.40% 0
24 Mike Williams LAC 107 25 23.36% 0
25 Jakobi Meyers LV 245 57 23.27% -10
26 Chris Godwin TB 237 55 23.21% -4
27 JuJu Smith-Schuster NE 108 25 23.15% -9
28 Michael Pittman Jr. IND 318 73 22.96% 1
29 D.K. Metcalf SEA 194 44 22.68% 19
30 Zay Flowers BLT 262 59 22.52% -3
31 Amari Cooper CLV 240 54 22.50% 9
32 Romeo Doubs GB 220 48 21.82% -2
33 Drake London ATL 258 56 21.71% 1
34 Robert Woods HST 186 40 21.51% -3
35 Tyler Lockett SEA 224 48 21.43% 3
35 Deebo Samuel SF 140 30 21.43% -3
37 Tee Higgins CIN 190 40 21.05% -4
38 Parris Campbell NYG 111 23 20.72% 1
39 George Pickens PIT 251 52 20.72% -14
40 Christian Kirk JAX 277 57 20.58% -4
41 Christian Watson GB 118 24 20.34% #N/A
42 Michael Thomas NO 296 60 20.27% 3
43 Josh Downs IND 264 53 20.08% 3
44 Terry McLaurin WAS 315 63 20.00% -1
44 Calvin Ridley JAX 285 57 20.00% 6
44 DJ Moore CHI 280 56 20.00% -7
44 Wan’Dale Robinson NYG 140 28 20.00% -16
48 Tank Dell HST 162 32 19.75% -6
49 Curtis Samuel WAS 224 43 19.20% 4
50 Jayden Reed GB 184 35 19.02% -9
51 Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA 179 34 18.99% -7
52 Jerry Jeudy DEN 206 39 18.93% -3
53 Elijah Moore CLV 240 45 18.75% -6
54 Terrace Marshall Jr. CAR 140 26 18.57% 0
55 Jordan Addison MIN 270 50 18.52% 0
56 Odell Beckham Jr. BLT 141 26 18.44% -4
57 Michael Gallup DAL 194 35 18.04% -6
58 Kalif Raymond DET 122 22 18.03% 0
59 DeVonta Smith PHI 320 56 17.50% 0
60 Mack Hollins ATL 138 24 17.39% 5
61 Courtland Sutton DEN 259 44 16.99% -4
62 Joshua Palmer LAC 237 38 16.03% -2
63 Tutu Atwell LA 288 46 15.97% 0
64 Braxton Berrios MIA 163 26 15.95% -3
65 Gabe Davis BUF 286 45 15.73% 11
66 Tyler Boyd CIN 267 42 15.73% -4
67 Jonathan Mingo CAR 210 33 15.71% -3
68 Brandin Cooks DAL 173 27 15.61% -2
69 Dontayvion Wicks GB 122 19 15.57% 3
70 Calvin Austin III PIT 156 24 15.38% -2
71 Quentin Johnston LAC 133 20 15.04% 10
72 Rashod Bateman BLT 135 20 14.81% -5
73 K.J. Osborn MIN 314 46 14.65% 12
74 Nick Westbrook-Ikhine TEN 165 24 14.55% -3
75 Nelson Agholor BLT 152 22 14.47% -6
76 Michael Wilson ARZ 243 35 14.40% -2
77 Rashid Shaheed NO 246 35 14.23% -2
78 Jahan Dotson WAS 318 45 14.15% 1
79 Tyler Scott CHI 108 15 13.89% #N/A
80 Jauan Jennings SF 139 19 13.67% -24
81 Justin Watson KC 147 20 13.61% -1
82 Rondale Moore ARZ 225 29 12.89% -5
83 Skyy Moore KC 202 26 12.87% 1
84 Allen Robinson II PIT 210 27 12.86% -14
85 Allen Lazard NYJ 229 29 12.66% 3
86 Josh Reynolds DET 237 30 12.66% -13
87 DeVante Parker NE 199 25 12.56% 0
88 DJ Chark Jr. CAR 232 29 12.50% -2
89 Isaiah Hodgins NYG 145 18 12.41% -11
90 Trey Palmer TB 186 22 11.83% -1
91 Darius Slayton NYG 270 31 11.48% -1
92 Jamal Agnew JAX 105 12 11.43% -9
93 Hunter Renfrow LV 142 16 11.27% 0
94 Alec Pierce IND 290 30 10.34% -2
95 Darnell Mooney CHI 233 24 10.30% -4
96 Van Jefferson ATL 227 23 10.13% 0
97 Brandon Johnson DEN 126 12 9.52% -2
98 Randall Cobb NYJ 129 12 9.30% -1
99 Marquez Valdes-Scantling KC 245 21 8.57% 1
100 Jalin Hyatt NYG 170 14 8.24% -1
101 Donovan Peoples-Jones CLV 218 17 7.80% -3
102 Olamide Zaccheaus PHI 182 10 5.49% -1

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