Targets Per Route Run Report: Week 7 (Fantasy Football)

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@ajpassman

Welcome back to the TPRR report. The bye weeks are in full swing, with the Cowboys and Bears getting the week off. As a refresher, Targets Per Route Run, or TPRR, is a metric that quantifies a player’s efficiency in earning targets. For wide receivers, a target is the most important underlying metric to predict consistent fantasy output, so a player’s ability to earn these targets at a high rate is key. Historically, a 20% TPRR is a good minimum threshold we want to see, and the best of the best consistently see TPRRs north of 30%.

Let’s take a look at this week’s leaders. As always, TPRR is part of the story. The number of routes run for each player is an important indicator of game script and a team’s propensity to throw.

Week 6 Targets Per Route Run stat table

Week 6 Reactions

Pulse Check on CeeDee Lamb

Somebody call Madame Toussaint because the Cowboys got waxed by the Lions at home. Dak Prescott has had a couple of “subpar” weeks in a row, so CeeDee Lamb‘s stat lines haven’t been as consistently stratospheric as 2023’s. Lamb tops the list this week, though, with a 38% TPRR, and he’s someone you may be able to get in a trade for a manager desperate for a bye-week win. Timing is everything. The Cowboys face the 49ers off their bye, then have plus matchups almost every week thereafter. Sign me up. Kavontae Turpin makes the top 25 for the second week running, but he’s still a part-time player. Most of Turpin’s action came with Cooper Rush under center. Jalen Tolbert followed up a solid effort in Week 5 with a measly 10% TPRR in Week 6. It’s hard to take much away from the blowout, but his underlying performance isn’t one that justifies a roster spot during the bye week.

Demario Douglas

Is Drake Maye…good? Well, no. Not yet, anyway. However, Maye produced a fantasy-relevant day after a poor start (three-and-out, then an INT on the next drive) and a lost fumble. There’s considerable risk with jumping in on the Patriots’ offense, but Demario Douglas (32% TPRR) is a sneaky pick for a bye-week filler or DFS pick in Week 6. The Jaguars’ defense is giving up the most receiving yards in the league, and Jacksonville just made another rookie, Caleb Williams, look like a league MVP.

Ups and Downs

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Josh Downs (31% TPRR) has seen nine or more targets in the three games Joe Flacco has been the Colts’ quarterback and is the season leader in TPRR among qualified receivers (full list below). Use that in trade conversations to sell high on Downs. Hopefully, this trend continues with Anthony Richardson under center, but the passing pie is most likely going to shrink in Indy.

Last Dance, Part 2?

Davante Adams has been hovering around a 20% TPRR in 2024, but that’s not necessarily predictive of what he’ll do on the Jets. Adams’ arrival extinguishes any flicker of hope you may have had for Mike Williams (11% TPRR), and it seems that Adams is supposed to be Allen Lazard on steroids for Aaron Rodgers. As we heard ad nauseam on Monday Night Football, Rodgers is big on trust with his receivers. Garrett Wilson‘s target share should take a hit, and I’d expect all Jets to lose out in the red zone if everything goes according to plan in New York (because when has it ever not?).

A Rising Tide Lifts All Bills

The Bills traded to get Amari Cooper out of Cleveland, possibly saving the fantasy seasons of many a manager. Before the trade, Buffalo simply did not have enough talent on the outside, which allowed opposing defenses to focus on the middle of the field and cause more problems for Josh Allen. Keon Coleman hasn’t cracked a 20% TPRR this season. Khalil Shakir, who is recovering from an ankle injury, has seen his target rate drop every game since Week 2, but his position in the slot could see a boost from the balance Cooper brings to the offensive scheme. The Bills made this trade to give the overall offense a boost. If it works, everyone might be happy (except for Deshaun Watson, but I think we’re all comfortable with that trade-off).

The Full List – Season TPRR Leaders 

Targets Per Route Run – Through Week 6 (Min 75 routes)
Rank Player Team Routes Targets TPRR + /-
1 Josh Downs IND 106 36 34.0% 1
2 Malik Nabers NYG 152 51 33.6% 1
3 Rashee Rice KC 91 29 31.9% 1
4 Adonai Mitchell IND 77 24 31.2% 1
5 Justin Jefferson MIN 150 44 29.3% 1
6 Diontae Johnson CAR 196 54 27.6% 4
7 Dontayvion Wicks GB 114 31 27.2% 8
8 Nico Collins HST 162 44 27.2% 3
9 Wan’Dale Robinson NYG 199 54 27.1% -1
10 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 155 42 27.1% -3
11 Ladd McConkey LAC 115 31 27.0% -2
12 Tyreek Hill MIA 145 39 26.9% 1
13 Garrett Wilson NYJ 245 65 26.5% 1
14 George Pickens PIT 160 42 26.3% 3
15 Drake London ATL 207 54 26.1% 4
16 Tee Higgins CIN 137 35 25.5% -4
17 Chris Godwin TB 200 51 25.5% 6
18 Olamide Zaccheaus WAS 80 20 25.0% 9
19 Jauan Jennings SF 147 36 24.5% 3
20 Jordan Whittington LA 95 23 24.2% 1
21 DeAndre Hopkins TEN 83 20 24.1% 7
22 CeeDee Lamb DAL 220 52 23.6% 22
23 Zay Flowers BLT 188 44 23.4% 9
24 Rashid Shaheed NO 171 40 23.4% -8
25 DeVonta Smith PHI 137 32 23.4% -7
26 Terry McLaurin WAS 186 43 23.1% -2
27 Marvin Harrison Jr. ARZ 157 36 22.9% 2
28 Brian Thomas Jr. JAX 179 40 22.3% -3
29 Courtland Sutton DEN 204 45 22.1% -3
30 Tutu Atwell LA 109 24 22.0% 1
31 Jayden Reed GB 155 34 21.9% 7
32 Michael Pittman Jr. IND 178 39 21.9% -12
33 Noah Brown WAS 83 18 21.7% #N/A
34 Stefon Diggs HST 217 47 21.7% 2
35 Amari Cooper CLV 232 50 21.6% 5
36 Christian Kirk JAX 181 39 21.5% -6
37 D.K. Metcalf SEA 256 54 21.1% 11
38 Mike Evans TB 186 39 21.0% 4
39 Deebo Samuel SF 153 32 20.9% -6
40 Chris Olave NO 139 29 20.9% 6
41 Curtis Samuel BUF 77 16 20.8% 14
42 Davante Adams LV 126 26 20.6% 3
43 Quentin Johnston LAC 107 22 20.6% -9
44 Jakobi Meyers LV 182 37 20.3% 3
45 Khalil Shakir BUF 104 21 20.2% -11
46 Darnell Mooney ATL 213 43 20.2% -7
47 DJ Moore CHI 224 45 20.1% -6
48 Keenan Allen CHI 112 22 19.6% -11
49 Brandon Aiyuk SF 199 39 19.6% -6
50 Demario Douglas NE 160 31 19.4% 10
51 Jaylen Waddle MIA 146 28 19.2% -2
52 Jordan Addison MIN 80 15 18.8% 1
53 Ja’Marr Chase CIN 219 41 18.7% -3
54 Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA 258 48 18.6% -2
55 Greg Dortch ARZ 137 25 18.2% -5
56 Jameson Williams DET 154 28 18.2% -2
57 Tyler Johnson LA 83 15 18.1% 0
58 Tank Dell HST 173 31 17.9% 10
59 Gabe Davis JAX 189 33 17.5% 6
60 Michael Wilson ARZ 175 30 17.1% -4
61 Darius Slayton NYG 216 37 17.1% 14
62 Allen Lazard NYJ 230 39 17.0% -3
63 Calvin Ridley TEN 144 24 16.7% 9
64 Xavier Legette CAR 139 23 16.5% -6
65 Tyler Lockett SEA 225 37 16.4% -4
66 Nelson Agholor BLT 87 14 16.1% 13
67 DeAndre Carter CHI 75 12 16.0% -1
68 Ray-Ray McCloud III ATL 202 32 15.8% -4
69 Jerry Jeudy CLV 222 35 15.8% -7
70 Jonathan Mingo CAR 149 23 15.4% -7
71 Tyler Boyd TEN 133 20 15.0% 0
72 Rashod Bateman BLT 174 26 14.9% 1
73 Romeo Doubs GB 154 23 14.9% -3
74 Keon Coleman BUF 134 20 14.9% 4
75 Josh Reynolds DEN 128 19 14.8% 2
76 Calvin Austin III PIT 116 17 14.7% 17
77 Jalen Tolbert DAL 221 32 14.5% -10
78 Jalen Brooks DAL 98 14 14.3% 12
79 Christian Watson GB 85 12 14.1% #N/A
80 Ja’Lynn Polk NE 156 22 14.1% -6
81 Brandin Cooks DAL 135 19 14.1% 1
82 Joshua Palmer LAC 87 12 13.8% -13
82 JuJu Smith-Schuster KC 87 12 13.8% 2
82 K.J. Osborn NE 87 12 13.8% 2
85 Rome Odunze CHI 212 29 13.7% #N/A
86 Xavier Worthy KC 141 19 13.5% 1
87 Mack Hollins BUF 139 18 12.9% -3
88 Alec Pierce IND 173 22 12.7% 0
89 Lil’Jordan Humphrey DEN 126 16 12.7% 0
90 Demarcus Robinson LA 177 22 12.4% 1
91 Tre Tucker LV 204 25 12.3% -11
92 Elijah Moore CLV 195 23 11.8% 0
93 Andrei Iosivas CIN 187 22 11.8% 2
94 Mason Tipton NO 86 10 11.6% -11
95 Mike Williams NYJ 154 17 11.0% 3
96 Sterling Shepard TB 93 10 10.8% #N/A
97 Luke McCaffrey WAS 116 12 10.3% -1
97 DJ Turner LV 87 9 10.3% 3
99 Dyami Brown WAS 88 9 10.2% -2
100 Jalen Nailor MIN 108 11 10.2% -1
101 Treylon Burks TEN 79 8 10.1% 0
102 Kayshon Boutte NE 75 7 9.3% #N/A
103 Van Jefferson PIT 134 12 9.0% -9
104 Jalen McMillan TB 92 7 7.6% 2
105 Jahan Dotson PHI 146 11 7.5% 2
106 Justin Watson KC 107 8 7.5% -1
107 Jalin Hyatt NYG 97 7 7.2% #N/A
108 Braxton Berrios MIA 78 4 5.1% 0

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