Targets Per Route Run Report: Week 4 (Fantasy Football)

Welcome back to the weekly TPRR report as we’re looking ahead to Week 4 in the NFL. Each week, I’ll highlight three to five players or teams that stand out positively, and I’ll do the same on the negative side of the spectrum. Starting in Week 5, we’ll shift to evaluating players based on their performance up to that point in the season.

This weekly series will give you actionable insights for the week ahead based on Targets Per Route Run (TPRR). TPRR is ultimately a measure of efficiency, calculated by dividing a player’s targets by their routes run and expressing it as a percentage. To learn more about TPRR and why it’s a useful tool, check out the 2023 season preview.

Week 3 was explosive, and you don’t need this article to tell you about Keenan Allen, Tyreek Hill, or Davante Adams. Let me just tell you that the numbers back it up. They’re great, and your trade offers for them should be summarily rejected. With that settled, let’s dive into Week 3.

Week 3 Recap

Here’s a look at the top 25 players in TPRR with a minimum of 15 routes run (the complete list of eligible players is at the end of this article for reference).

Source: pff.com; Monday Night Football stats unavailable at the time of writing

The Good

1. Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers (23.7% TPRR)

This old man, he played one… Despite the consensus that Adam Thielen was #washed during the offseason, he’s jumped up the rankings each week and exploded in Week 3. Look, nobody wants to embrace this, but the truth doesn’t care about your feelings. Rookie Jonathan Mingo could miss Week 4’s tasty matchup against Minnesota due to concussion protocol. Terrace Marshall stepped into Mingo’s role in the second half, and D.J. Chark had a solid fantasy day after a 45-yard touchdown. Both are viable options depending on league size and situation, but Thielen looks like the best bet to secure targets from Bryce Young.

2. Tank Dell, Houston Texans (26.9% TPRR)

C.J. Stroud continues to get it done, and Tank Dell looks like the WR1 in this offense.  The Texans dominated Jacksonville, leading to a downtick in passing plays, and yet we saw Stroud’s apparent preference for Dell over Nico Collins (12.5% TPRR). Robert Woods is still the target leader, but Dell looks poised to overtake him at home against Pittsburgh.

3. Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers (25.6% TPRR)

Green Bay takes on Detroit on Thursday Night Football in Week 4. As of the time of this writing, Christian Watson is still a non-participant for the Packers. Aaron Jones‘ imminent return should impact the offensive scheme around Jordan Love, but the Detroit Lions are tough to run against. Doubs performed as the top option for Jordan Love in Week 3, and he should get double-digit targets on a short week regardless of Aaron Jones‘ availability.

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The Not So Good

1. Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars (17.9% TPRR)

Here we are again. The Jaguars’ offense was…not great, and it’s the second week in a row that Calvin Ridley has failed to reach 20% TPRR. The good news for Ridley managers is that none of the other Jacksonville receivers did either. The bad news is that Ridley couldn’t capitalize on the targets he did receive, dropping four of his seven targets from Trevor Lawrence. Fantasy managers should know where things stand after a home-away-from-home game in London against Ridley’s old team, the Atlanta Falcons.

2. CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys (15.9% TPRR)

Lamb’s first three weeks have been a bit of a roller coaster, and the Cowboys struggled in Week 3 with their offensive line decimated by injuries. CeeDee isn’t seeing #deeztargets at a high enough rate, with Dak Prescott spreading the targets evenly between Lamb, Brandin Cooks, Jake Ferguson, and Michael Gallup against the Cardinals. As the overall WR19, you’re starting him in Week 4, but my expectations are lowered against a tough Patriots defense, especially if the Dallas OL isn’t at full strength.

3. K.J. Osborn, Minnesota Vikings (5.8% TPRR)

I don’t mean to pick on K.J. Osborn, as he may not have been on anyone’s radar. But he’s a perfect example of “fool’s gold” for fantasy, and I wanted to highlight Osborn as an example of why we look beyond the final stat line when projecting performance. Yes, he scored a touchdown in Week 3. Yes, the Vikings throw the ball a lot. Yes, he’s out-snapping Jordan Addison. However, Osborn’s role in the offense continues to diminish as Addison’s rises. Despite running eight more routes, K.J. Osborn only saw three targets to Addison’s eight. There’s no gold in those hills. Leave him on the waiver wire.

The full list: