Targets Per Route Run Report: Week 3 (Fantasy Football)

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Welcome back to the TPRR report. As a refresher, Targets Per Route Run, or TPRR, is a metric that quantifies a player’s efficiency in earning targets. For wide receivers, a target is the most important underlying metric to predict consistent fantasy output, so a player’s ability to earn those targets at a high rate is key. Historically, a 20% TPRR is a good minimum threshold we want to see, and the best of the best consistently have TPRRs upwards of 30%. Or, if you’re Malik Nabers, you have a 63% TPRR in the second week of your NFL career. No biggie.

If you’ve read other smart, in-depth fantasy articles already, you’ve been told not to overreact to a small sample size. (If you’re on Twitter, you’ve been encouraged to freak out early and often).  We’re going to keep it simple, let the data do the talking, and set a bar for the weeks to come. Let’s dive into some of Week 2’s biggest positive and negative outliers and how team situations could influence their fantasy outlook moving forward. Note: As I’m writing, I’m watching my Falcons try to steal the win from Philly on Monday Night Football, so those stats aren’t yet available for this article. #riseup

Week 2 targets per route run stat table

Targets per Route Run, data courtesy of pff.com *Monday Night Football stats not available.

Week 2 Reactions

The Rookies Show Out: Malik Nabers & Marvin Harrison Jr.

Well, if you were worried whether the hype was real around Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison, Jr., worry no more. MHJ had over 100 yards in the first quarter en route to demolishing the Rams, and Nabers said, “Give me all the pie” with a 66% target share from Daniel Jones. Of course, this sort of volume can’t happen every week, but both players showed what they’re capable of.

Redemption…Loading?  Jaxon Smith-Njigba & Quentin Johnston

Speaking of rookies looking to turn the corner, both QJ and JSN showed signs of fantasy life in Week 2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (36.4% TPRR) is matching Tyler Lockett in routes run per game but has twice as many targets through two weeks (19 to eight). The jury is still out on Quentin Johnston after an abysmal rookie season, but he’s connected to Justin Herbert in an offense in need of playmakers at receiver. My money is on first-year receiver Ladd McConkey out of Georgia, but the Chargers’ low passing volume (-11% Pass Rate over Expectation, 30th in the NFL) limits the ceiling of both.

Team Focus: New Orleans Saints

The Saints are arguably the biggest surprise over the first two weeks, but what can TPRR tell us about what we should expect week-to-week? Derek Carr is on pace for 42 passing touchdowns but boasts only one 30-TD season in his career, way back in 2015. The Saints’ run/pass split sits at 37%/62%, by far the lowest in the league. Chris Olave (37.5% TPRR) and Rashid Shaheed (23.5%) are seeing targets at a high efficiency, but the routes run are a concern. This should balance out a little as the season progresses, but the Saints’ offense wants to run through Alvin Kamara, who, in addition to getting 15 rushing attempts per game, boasts a higher TPRR of 33% and the same number of targets as Olave.

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Other Notes

  • This is Chris Godwin healthy. If he can stay on the field, I’d be surprised if he didn’t keep this up, though Mike Evans will have his weeks in the spotlight.
  • Garrett Wilson‘s efficiency (18% TPRR) took a hit this week, mostly due to Breece Hall seeing eight targets on 21 routes (38% TPRR). This volatility is what I’d expect with Aaron Rodgers, limiting Wilson to a WR2 season.
  • Green Bay receivers ran roughly half as many routes with Malik Willis filling in for Jordan Love. A crowded receiving corps just had its pie chopped in half.
  • With Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua out for the next couple of weeks, it’s tempting to jump on Tyler Johnson or Demarcus Robinson. After filling in admirably for Puka in Week 1, Tyler Johnson saw only three targets and a 12% TPRR in Week 2, the same as Robinson. It’s hard to know who, if anyone, will be the beneficiary of those vacated targets. More often than not, it’s a boon for the starting RB more than any one receiver.  Kyren Williams‘ TPRR jumped from 8% to 25%.
  • Brandon Aiyuk (13% TPRR) is not earning targets right now. Let’s hope he’s getting up to speed after all the trade talk in the offseason, but it’s something to keep an eye on.

The full list:

Targets Per Route Run – Season Leaders (Min 20 routes)
Rank Player Team Routes Targets TPRR + /-
1 Cooper Kupp LA 70 27 38.6% 0
2 Chris Godwin TB 51 16 31.4% 15
3 Malik Nabers NYG 77 24 31.2% 61
4 Keenan Allen CHI 26 8 30.8% 8
5 Ladd McConkey LAC 37 11 29.7% 3
6 Rashee Rice KC 51 15 29.4% -4
7 Justin Jefferson MIN 49 14 28.6% 12
8 Deebo Samuel SF 67 19 28.4% -3
9 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 85 24 28.2% 33
10 Dontayvion Wicks GB 25 7 28.0% 32
11 Tyreek Hill MIA 66 18 27.3% -6
12 Garrett Wilson NYJ 64 17 26.6% -9
13 Nico Collins HST 68 18 26.5% 13
14 Greg Dortch ARZ 38 10 26.3% -2
15 Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA 69 18 26.1% 72
16 Michael Pittman Jr. IND 54 14 25.9% -11
17 Wan’Dale Robinson NYG 58 15 25.9% -2
18 Devaughn Vele DEN 31 8 25.8% 7
19 Quentin Johnston LAC 43 11 25.6% 18
20 Rashid Shaheed NO 36 9 25.0% 2
21 CeeDee Lamb DAL 66 16 24.2% -10
22 D.K. Metcalf SEA 72 17 23.6% 33
23 K.J. Osborn NE 34 8 23.5% #N/A
24 George Pickens PIT 43 10 23.3% -16
25 Allen Lazard NYJ 56 13 23.2% -9
26 A.J. Brown PHI 39 9 23.1% 3
27 Jameson Williams DET 83 19 22.9% -7
28 Diontae Johnson CAR 53 12 22.6% 4
29 Davante Adams LV 81 18 22.2% 26
30 DJ Moore CHI 77 17 22.1% 1
31 Zay Flowers BLT 85 18 21.2% 21
32 Mike Evans TB 52 11 21.2% 1
33 Khalil Shakir BUF 38 8 21.1% 28
34 Adonai Mitchell IND 43 9 20.9% -16
35 Olamide Zaccheaus WAS 29 6 20.7% 17
36 DeVonta Smith PHI 39 8 20.5% 2
36 Jonathan Mingo CAR 39 8 20.5% -12
36 Chris Olave NO 39 8 20.5% 48
39 Alec Pierce IND 54 11 20.4% 18
40 Calvin Ridley TEN 67 13 19.4% -1
41 Robbie Chosen MIA 21 4 19.0% #N/A
41 Tim Patrick DET 21 4 19.0% #N/A
43 Jayden Reed GB 43 8 18.6% -10
44 Xavier Legette CAR 38 7 18.4% -30
45 Marvin Harrison Jr. ARZ 60 11 18.3% 41
46 Terry McLaurin WAS 66 12 18.2% 20
47 Josh Reynolds DEN 72 13 18.1% -3
48 Jauan Jennings SF 50 9 18.0% -26
49 Stefon Diggs HST 67 12 17.9% 0
50 Jerry Jeudy CLV 79 14 17.7% -4
51 Courtland Sutton DEN 85 15 17.6% -21
51 Romeo Doubs GB 51 9 17.6% -2
53 Gabe Davis JAX 58 10 17.2% 15
53 Tyler Johnson LA 58 10 17.2% -18
55 Tyler Boyd TEN 64 11 17.2% -6
56 Elijah Moore CLV 83 14 16.9% 15
57 Amari Cooper CLV 89 15 16.9% 10
58 Tank Dell HST 66 11 16.7% -23
58 Jalen Brooks DAL 30 5 16.7% #N/A
60 Brian Thomas Jr. JAX 50 8 16.0% -21
61 Trenton Irwin CIN 44 7 15.9% 19
62 Ja’Marr Chase CIN 71 11 15.5% -21
63 Xavier Worthy KC 46 7 15.2% 5
64 DeAndre Carter CHI 40 6 15.0% #N/A
65 Joshua Palmer LAC 41 6 14.6% -6
66 Jaylen Waddle MIA 62 9 14.5% -12
66 Tyler Lockett SEA 62 9 14.5% -62
68 Calvin Austin III PIT 29 4 13.8% #N/A
69 Jalen Tolbert DAL 66 9 13.6% 26
70 Brandin Cooks DAL 67 9 13.4% -42
71 Demarcus Robinson LA 75 10 13.3% -13
71 Keon Coleman BUF 45 6 13.3% -26
73 Andrei Iosivas CIN 69 9 13.0% -12
73 Brandon Aiyuk SF 69 9 13.0% -14
75 Christian Kirk JAX 54 7 13.0% -29
76 Christian Watson GB 39 5 12.8% -28
77 Adam Thielen CAR 56 7 12.5% -12
78 Darius Slayton NYG 67 8 11.9% -1
79 Van Jefferson PIT 43 5 11.6% 1
79 Jalen Nailor MIN 43 5 11.6% #N/A
81 Grant DuBose MIA 26 3 11.5% #N/A
82 Rashod Bateman BLT 80 9 11.3% -10
83 Lil’Jordan Humphrey DEN 45 5 11.1% #N/A
83 Nelson Agholor BLT 36 4 11.1% 6
83 DeAndre Hopkins TEN 27 3 11.1% #N/A
86 Jakobi Meyers LV 74 8 10.8% -1
87 Darnell Mooney ATL 28 3 10.7% -13
87 Drake London ATL 28 3 10.7% -13
89 Ja’Lynn Polk NE 40 4 10.0% 3
90 Rome Odunze CHI 73 7 9.6% -16
91 Jalen McMillan TB 54 5 9.3% -14
92 Justin Watson KC 34 3 8.8% -3
93 Kalif Raymond DET 47 4 8.5% #N/A
93 Luke McCaffrey WAS 47 4 8.5% -25
95 Tre Tucker LV 62 5 8.1% -15
96 Dyami Brown WAS 38 3 7.9% #N/A
97 Tyquan Thornton NE 40 3 7.5% -36
98 Michael Wilson ARZ 54 4 7.4% -7
99 Treylon Burks TEN 44 3 6.8% -11
100 Braxton Berrios MIA 45 3 6.7% -28
101 Cedric Tillman CLV 32 2 6.3% -8
102 Mack Hollins BUF 36 2 5.6% -25
103 Brandon Powell MIN 37 2 5.4% #N/A
104 Demario Douglas NE 45 2 4.4% -24
105 Jahan Dotson PHI 24 1 4.2% -11
106 Mike Williams NYJ 30 1 3.3% #N/A

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