Targets Per Route Run Report: Week 15 (Fantasy Football)

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Congratulations! If you’re reading this, you still have something to play for. That, or you have an odd way of coping.

Targets Per Route Run (TPRR) remains one of the most insightful metrics for understanding player opportunity. It tells us who’s running routes and who’s earning looks when they’re out there. As a refresher, Targets Per Route Run, or TPRR, is a metric that quantifies a player’s efficiency in earning targets. For wide receivers, a target is the most important underlying metric to predict consistent fantasy output, so a player’s ability to earn these targets at a high rate is key. Historically, a 20% TPRR is a good minimum threshold we want to see, and the best of the best consistently see TPRRs north of 30%.

Week 14 Reactions

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine was a hot waiver name in Week 14 but was only targeted twice on 31 routes. Instead, the targets swung back in a big way for Calvin Ridley (35.5%TPRR). The Titans take on the Bengals next, so someone is likely to cash in with more pass attempts. It isn’t easy to know what Will Levis and Co. will look like in a given week, but I’d rather bet on the more talented Ridley if I had to choose between them.

Amari Cooper tops the list for Week 14 after being targeted on over half of his routes. Cooper’s snap share was only 53% in the shootout with L.A., suggesting that he’s not completely up to speed with either his recovery or the Bills’ offense (or both). Khalil Shakir (21% TPRR) outshone Cooper in the box score again and doesn’t seem to be going anywhere, but the Bills head to Detroit for another high-profile matchup in Week 15. It seems like a great spot for Amari Cooper to nab his first touchdown reception from Josh Allen.

Listen, nobody wants their fantasy season to rely on the Carolina Panthers. I get it. However, it has to be mentioned that 34-year-old Adam Thielen has a 25% TPRR since returning from a hamstring injury. Xavier Legette just missed out on a game-winning touchdown reception in Week 14, but the rookie has a sub-20% TPRR in the same span. If I had to pick, I’d trust the volume I’m seeing from the ageless one.

Week 14 targets per route run leader stat table

Data: pff.com

Playoff Outlook

Green Bay ranks sixth in the NFL in passing touchdowns (24) and first in receptions over 40 yards (13). Jayden Reed has been the top fantasy receiver for the Packers but changed a lot of fantasy leagues with his goose egg and a 7% TPRR against the Lions. While it may not be time to panic, it’s worth noting that Christian Watson‘s snap share is back up to his usual 90%+ in the past two weeks. Reed, on the other hand, does most of his damage as a slot receiver but is mostly limited to three-receiver sets. For a Packers team that ranks second-lowest in Pass Rate over Expectation (-8.1% PRoE), there’s more risk with Reed when you look a little deeper. Short version: I wouldn’t be surprised if Watson outperforms Reed over the next three weeks.

The outlook for rookie Brian Thomas Jr. has been a little dicey with Trevor Lawrence out for the season, but his talent is shining through despite diminished opportunities. Scoring opportunities won’t be as abundant, but Thomas’ volume should be consistent enough to provide a safe floor. And there’s always a chance he could break free and provide a boom week.

Lastly, Puka Nacua (37% TPRR) and Cooper Kupp (30.4%) lead all other receivers in TPRR this season, a feat I haven’t seen since we began tracking TPRR. Given Matthew Stafford‘s long history of hyper-targeting his favorite receivers, this is likely to continue.

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The Full List – Season TPRR Rankings

Targets Per Route Run – Through Week 14 (Min 195 routes)
Rank Player Team Routes Targets TPRR + /-
1 Puka Nacua LA 202 74 36.6% #N/A
2 Cooper Kupp LA 289 88 30.4% -1
3 Josh Downs IND 252 74 29.4% 0
4 Nico Collins HST 246 71 28.9% 0
5 Malik Nabers NYG 429 121 28.2% -3
6 Diontae Johnson BLT 231 62 26.8% 0
7 CeeDee Lamb DAL 474 125 26.4% -2
8 Jauan Jennings SF 299 77 25.8% 3
9 Drake London ATL 428 109 25.5% 6
10 Khalil Shakir BUF 307 78 25.4% 6
11 Dontayvion Wicks GB 217 55 25.3% -1
12 Garrett Wilson NYJ 501 126 25.1% 0
13 Chris Godwin TB 244 60 24.6% 5
14 A.J. Brown PHI 265 65 24.5% -1
15 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 396 97 24.5% -7
16 George Pickens PIT 358 87 24.3% -7
17 Davante Adams NYJ 375 91 24.3% 2
18 Tutu Atwell LA 204 49 24.0% -4
19 Justin Jefferson MIN 443 106 23.9% -2
20 Tee Higgins CIN 300 71 23.7% -13
21 Ja’Marr Chase CIN 530 124 23.4% 6
22 Ladd McConkey LAC 343 80 23.3% 8
23 Amari Cooper BUF 331 77 23.3% 18
24 Mike Evans TB 281 65 23.1% 2
25 Courtland Sutton DEN 443 102 23.0% 0
26 Stefon Diggs HST 270 62 23.0% -4
27 Zay Flowers BLT 398 90 22.6% -6
28 Tyreek Hill MIA 423 95 22.5% 0
29 DeAndre Hopkins KC 288 64 22.2% 3
30 Brian Thomas Jr. JAX 375 82 21.9% 12
31 D.K. Metcalf SEA 413 90 21.8% 6
32 Calvin Ridley TEN 423 92 21.7% -3
33 Michael Pittman Jr. IND 345 75 21.7% 2
34 Marvin Harrison Jr. ARZ 391 84 21.5% 1
35 Christian Kirk JAX 220 47 21.4% -4
36 Jakobi Meyers LV 431 91 21.1% 8
37 Brandon Aiyuk SF 215 45 20.9% 1
38 Terry McLaurin WAS 393 82 20.9% 2
39 Wan’Dale Robinson NYG 460 95 20.7% -16
40 Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA 485 99 20.4% -6
41 Keenan Allen CHI 398 81 20.4% -8
42 Darnell Mooney ATL 443 89 20.1% -3
43 Devaughn Vele DEN 220 44 20.0% 3
44 DeVonta Smith PHI 302 60 19.9% 2
45 Deebo Samuel SF 319 63 19.7% -2
46 Jayden Reed GB 301 59 19.6% 2
47 Demario Douglas NE 342 67 19.6% -2
48 Quentin Johnston LAC 272 53 19.5% 2
49 DJ Moore CHI 519 101 19.5% 8
50 Noah Brown WAS 278 54 19.4% -1
51 Troy Franklin DEN 197 38 19.3% 0
52 Jameson Williams DET 323 62 19.2% 3
53 Romeo Doubs GB 280 52 18.6% 0
54 Christian Watson GB 233 43 18.5% 0
55 Jordan Addison MIN 342 63 18.4% 5
56 Tank Dell HST 398 72 18.1% -4
57 Xavier Legette CAR 361 64 17.7% 1
58 David Moore CAR 255 45 17.6% -2
59 Elijah Moore CLV 459 79 17.2% 5
60 Jerry Jeudy CLV 552 94 17.0% 5
61 Jaylen Waddle MIA 424 72 17.0% 1
62 Gabe Davis JAX 252 42 16.7% 1
63 Lil’Jordan Humphrey DEN 242 40 16.5% -4
64 Jonathan Mingo DAL 226 37 16.4% 9
65 Keon Coleman BUF 221 36 16.3% 1
66 Cedric Tillman CLV 278 45 16.2% 2
67 Calvin Austin III PIT 255 41 16.1% 4
68 Rome Odunze CHI 485 77 15.9% 1
69 Xavier Worthy KC 405 63 15.6% 3
69 Greg Dortch ARZ 225 35 15.6%
71 Sterling Shepard TB 278 43 15.5% 14
72 Tim Patrick DET 220 34 15.5% 6
73 Joshua Palmer LAC 313 48 15.3% 3
74 Allen Lazard NYJ 288 44 15.3% -13
75 Ray-Ray McCloud III ATL 437 66 15.1% 6
76 Michael Wilson ARZ 387 58 15.0% -6
77 Darius Slayton NYG 423 63 14.9% -3
78 Alec Pierce IND 358 53 14.8% 5
79 Rashod Bateman BLT 358 51 14.2% -4
80 Jalen Brooks DAL 200 28 14.0% 2
81 Tyler Boyd TEN 343 47 13.7% -1
82 Nelson Agholor BLT 199 27 13.6% -5
83 Parker Washington JAX 236 32 13.6% #N/A
84 Tyler Lockett SEA 436 59 13.5% -5
85 Jalen McMillan TB 254 34 13.4% 6
86 Kendrick Bourne NE 203 27 13.3% -2
87 Nick Westbrook-Ikhine TEN 295 38 12.9% 0
88 Ja’Lynn Polk NE 234 30 12.8% 0
89 Demarcus Robinson LA 399 51 12.8% -3
90 Kayshon Boutte NE 346 43 12.4% 2
91 Jalen Tolbert DAL 480 59 12.3% -1
92 Tre Tucker LV 492 59 12.0% -3
93 Mack Hollins BUF 314 37 11.8% 2
94 DJ Turner LV 238 28 11.8% 0
95 Mason Tipton NO 218 24 11.0% 1
96 Jalen Nailor MIN 279 30 10.8% -3
97 Andrei Iosivas CIN 425 45 10.6% 2
98 Van Jefferson PIT 285 30 10.5% -1
98 Luke McCaffrey WAS 209 22 10.5% 0
100 Mike Williams PIT 273 27 9.9% 0
101 Justin Watson KC 321 25 7.8% 1
102 Jahan Dotson PHI 294 20 6.8% 1

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