Targets Per Route Run Report: Week 14 (Fantasy Football)

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We’re in the end game now. Every point matters for managers on the cusp of the playoffs, and the NFL season has delivered the final, mega-sized bye week as fantasy regular seasons draw to a close. Baltimore, Denver, Houston, Indianapolis, New England, and Washington are off, leaving us scouring the waiver wire to field a full team.

Targets Per Route Run (TPRR) remains one of the most insightful metrics for understanding player opportunity. It tells us who’s running routes and who’s earning looks when they’re out there. As a refresher, Targets Per Route Run, or TPRR, is a metric that quantifies a player’s efficiency in earning targets. For wide receivers, a target is the most important underlying metric to predict consistent fantasy output, so a player’s ability to earn these targets at a high rate is key. Historically, a 20% TPRR is a good minimum threshold we want to see, and the best of the best consistently see TPRRs north of 30%.

Week 13 Reactions

With no teams on bye, there were a lot of storylines to choose from, so we’ll start at the top. The Chargers under Jim Harbaugh wanted to be run-first but will have to expand their play-calling with JK Dobbins hitting injured reserve. Ladd McConkey is Herbert’s best receiver, and he made the most of his routes in Week 13. The former Bulldog only ran 25 routes, but drew a target on almost half of them. Unreal.

Okay, timeout (sorry, Bears fans; that’s a low blow). Can Caleb Williams now support multiple wide receivers?  Both DJ Moore (34% TPRR) and Keenan Allen (18% TPRR) are coming off putting up big numbers in consecutive weeks. Moore has been more consistent this season, but Allen was Williams’ go-to receiver in Week 12 (30% TPRR). You’re starting both of them, but it’s a coin flip for DFS.

Rumor has it that Jerry Jeudy is still catching balls in Denver. He misses out on the top 25 for Week 13, but Jeudy’s 22% TPRR suggests he’ll continue to see a consistent share of the targets from Jameis Winston when Cedric Tillman (20% TPRR in Week 12) returns.

Week 13 TPRR leaders stat table

Data: pff.com

The Season So Far

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has been on fire lately. He’s the overall WR6 over the last three weeks, but his TPRR has hovered around 15% all season. There will be opportunities for Westbrook-Ikhine if the Titans continue to play from behind (they were down 28-0 in Week 13), but I find his production hard to predict and harder to trust in the weeks ahead.

Jaylen Waddle should be started with so many others on bye, but his inconsistency is alarming. Since Tua Tagovailoa‘s Week 8 return, Waddle has lost out in a major way to Jonnu Smith and De’Von Achane. Waddle looks like the fourth option in that offense. Here’s a breakdown of TPRR in that span since Tua’s return:

TPRR stat table for Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, Jonnu Smith, and De'Von Achane from Week 8 to Week 13

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Amari Cooper has been a huge disappointment since joining the Bills, but there’s reason for hope. The snowy conditions meant Khalil Shakir (17 routes run) was barely eligible for the weekly list, and Cooper only ran 12 routes on the day. He was, however, targeted three times (25% TPRR) and tossed the lateral for Josh Allen‘s historic passing-and-receiving touchdown. If that’s not good juju for the future, I don’t know what is. This is a fool-me-thrice situation, to be sure, but I’m optimistic about Cooper finding his footing when the Bills travel to the more temperate Los Angeles in Week 14.

Finally, let’s check in on the bottom of the list. Despite DeVonta Smith missing the last two weeks, Jahan Dotson has failed to make an impact. And you’d be forgiven for forgetting he was on the Eagles at all.

The Full List – Season TPRR Rankings

Targets Per Route Run – Through Week 13 (Min 180 routes)
Rank Player Team Routes Targets TPRR + /-
1 Cooper Kupp LA 266 80 30.1% 0
2 Malik Nabers NYG 377 112 29.7% 0
3 Josh Downs IND 252 74 29.4% 0
4 Nico Collins HST 246 71 28.9% 0
5 Diontae Johnson BLT 231 62 26.8% 1
6 CeeDee Lamb DAL 440 118 26.8% -1
7 Drake London ATL 390 103 26.4% 8
8 Khalil Shakir BUF 273 71 26.0% 8
9 Tee Higgins CIN 258 66 25.6% -2
10 A.J. Brown PHI 239 61 25.5% 3
11 Garrett Wilson NYJ 458 116 25.3% 1
12 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 360 91 25.3% -4
13 Jauan Jennings SF 274 69 25.2% -2
14 Dontayvion Wicks GB 199 50 25.1% -4
15 Tutu Atwell LA 185 46 24.9% -1
16 Chris Godwin TB 244 60 24.6% 2
17 George Pickens PIT 358 87 24.3% -8
18 Justin Jefferson MIN 408 99 24.3% -1
19 Davante Adams NYJ 334 81 24.3% 0
20 Mike Evans TB 252 60 23.8% 6
21 Ladd McConkey LAC 343 80 23.3% 9
22 Courtland Sutton DEN 443 102 23.0% 3
23 Stefon Diggs HST 270 62 23.0% -1
24 Chris Olave NO 188 43 22.9% 0
25 Zay Flowers BLT 398 90 22.6% -4
26 Ja’Marr Chase CIN 485 106 21.9% 1
27 Michael Pittman Jr. IND 345 75 21.7% 8
28 D.K. Metcalf SEA 387 84 21.7% 9
29 Marvin Harrison Jr. ARZ 351 76 21.7% 6
30 Tyreek Hill MIA 376 81 21.5% -2
31 DeAndre Hopkins KC 260 56 21.5% 1
32 Christian Kirk JAX 220 47 21.4% -1
33 Wan’Dale Robinson NYG 405 86 21.2% -10
34 Brian Thomas Jr. JAX 342 72 21.1% 8
35 Jakobi Meyers LV 391 82 21.0% 9
36 Brandon Aiyuk SF 215 45 20.9% 2
37 Terry McLaurin WAS 393 82 20.9% 3
38 Deebo Samuel SF 293 61 20.8% 5
39 Keenan Allen CHI 367 76 20.7% -6
40 Calvin Ridley TEN 392 81 20.7% -11
41 Amari Cooper BUF 305 63 20.7% 0
42 Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA 456 94 20.6% -8
43 Darnell Mooney ATL 407 83 20.4% -4
44 Jayden Reed GB 286 58 20.3% 4
45 DeVonta Smith PHI 275 55 20.0% 1
45 Devaughn Vele DEN 220 44 20.0% 1
47 Demario Douglas NE 342 67 19.6% -2
48 Noah Brown WAS 278 54 19.4% 1
49 Troy Franklin DEN 197 38 19.3% 2
50 DJ Moore CHI 487 93 19.1% 7
51 Quentin Johnston LAC 242 46 19.0% -1
52 Romeo Doubs GB 280 52 18.6% 1
53 Jameson Williams DET 291 54 18.6% 2
54 David Moore CAR 221 40 18.1% 2
55 Tank Dell HST 398 72 18.1% -3
56 Elijah Moore CLV 422 75 17.8% 8
57 Christian Watson GB 211 37 17.5% -3
58 Xavier Legette CAR 324 56 17.3% 0
59 Jerry Jeudy CLV 511 88 17.2% 6
60 Jordan Addison MIN 312 53 17.0% 0
61 Allen Lazard NYJ 255 43 16.9% 0
62 Gabe Davis JAX 252 42 16.7% 1
62 Greg Dortch ARZ 204 34 16.7% 5
64 Lil’Jordan Humphrey DEN 242 40 16.5% -5
65 Jonathan Mingo DAL 220 36 16.4% 8
66 Keon Coleman BUF 221 36 16.3% 0
67 Cedric Tillman CLV 278 45 16.2% 1
68 Calvin Austin III PIT 240 38 15.8% 3
69 Rome Odunze CHI 455 72 15.8% 0
70 Michael Wilson ARZ 349 55 15.8% 0
71 Xavier Worthy KC 370 58 15.7% 1
72 Jaylen Waddle MIA 383 60 15.7% -10
73 Darius Slayton NYG 375 57 15.2% 1
74 Alec Pierce IND 358 53 14.8% 9
75 Parker Washington JAX 205 30 14.6% #N/A
76 Sterling Shepard TB 255 37 14.5% 9
77 Rashod Bateman BLT 358 51 14.2% -2
78 Tyler Lockett SEA 409 58 14.2% 1
79 Jalen Brooks DAL 200 28 14.0% 3
80 Tim Patrick DET 193 27 14.0% -2
81 Joshua Palmer LAC 279 39 14.0% -5
82 Ray-Ray McCloud III ATL 404 56 13.9% -1
83 Tyler Boyd TEN 318 44 13.8% -3
84 Nick Westbrook-Ikhine TEN 264 36 13.6% 3
85 Nelson Agholor BLT 199 27 13.6% -8
86 Kendrick Bourne NE 203 27 13.3% -2
87 Demarcus Robinson LA 379 50 13.2% -1
88 Ja’Lynn Polk NE 234 30 12.8%
89 Jalen Tolbert DAL 457 57 12.5% 1
90 Kayshon Boutte NE 346 43 12.4% 2
91 Jalen McMillan TB 225 27 12.0% 0
92 Tre Tucker LV 454 54 11.9% -3
93 DJ Turner LV 238 28 11.8% 1
94 Jalen Nailor MIN 260 30 11.5% -1
95 Mason Tipton NO 218 24 11.0% 1
96 Van Jefferson PIT 264 29 11.0% 1
97 Mack Hollins BUF 285 31 10.9% -2
98 Luke McCaffrey WAS 209 22 10.5% 0
99 Andrei Iosivas CIN 394 40 10.2% 0
100 Mike Williams PIT 260 23 8.8% 0
101 Xavier Hutchinson HST 187 16 8.6% 0
102 Justin Watson KC 303 25 8.3% 0
103 Jahan Dotson PHI 277 18 6.5% 0

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