NFL Team Performance Trends Week 9 (Fantasy Football)
In this article, I’ll be diving into NFL team performance trends going into Week 8. The stats displayed in this article all refer to the graphics at the end. For general reference, EPA stands for expected points added; the term is used frequently in the article and measures the expected points generated by a given play. Essentially, it is a measure of how efficient (good or bad) a player or team is.
Let’s jump into the stats.
Offensive Takeaways
The Chargers and Packers are two teams getting hot and going into easier Week 9 matchups. As shown in their EPA per week trend lines in the third chart below, in the last 3-4 weeks, both squads have risen above the league average in offense efficiency. The Chargers face the Titans, who boast a -0.08 EPA/play on defense, while the Packers face the Panthers, who have a -0.05 EPA/defensively, leaving the door open for big fantasy performances from players like Kimani Vidal, Ladd McConkey, Josh Jacobs, and Christian Watson.
The Chiefs are rolling. With their EPA/play up to 0.14 on offense, they now rank as the 4th best team in offensive efficiency overall. They face Buffalo in Week 9, who have only been forgiving to RBs this season, allowing 0.96 points per touch to RBs in the past 5 weeks (see chart 2). This could be an opportunity for a Kareem Hunt plug-and-play, as Isiah Pacheco is banged up with an MCL sprain.
The Texans have been hot and cold all season and are coming off a strong performance in Week 8, as seen in their high trend line in chart 3. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, they face the Broncos in Week 9, who hold a 0.02 EPA/defensively on the season, showing their defensive prowess. Be wary of going full-send on your Texans players this week.
The Raiders have been on a steady decline in offensive efficiency, but have a good chance to turn things around in Week 9, as they face the Jaguars, who have been a weaker defensive team this season (-0.02 EPA/play). They have had a strong run defense, allowing just 0.84 points per touch to RBs in the last 5 weeks, but have been weaker against all other key positions. Look for this Raiders air game to bounce back in Week 9.
The Vikings have been all but impressive offensively this season, but have a favorable air matchup against the Lions in Week 9. Detroit allowed 3.13 points per touch to WRs the past 5 weeks, giving Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison the go-to breakout (per usual).
Defensive Takeaways
The Texans’ defense has been incredible this season, leading the league in defensive efficiency at 0.13 EPA/play. They have only allowed 0.28 points per touch to QBs on the season, so Bo Nix could struggle this week against Houston.
The Vikings’ defense has been one of the worst against QB/WR duos in their last five matchups, allowing 0.66 points per touch to QBs and 3.66 points per touch to WRs.
Cincinnati has allowed 1.14 points per touch to RBs on the season, leaving the door wide open for a huge performance for D’Andre Swift, and even Kyle Monangai if you’re in a pinch.
The Broncos and Bengals are the worst against TEs in the past five weeks, allowing over 3.5 points per touch each. Colston Loveland and Dalton Schultz are set for big games in Week 9.
While Oronde Gadsden has lit up the TE world, he faces the Titans in Week 9, who have been surprisingly strong against the position this season, only allowing 2.26 points per touch in the past five games. Be wary of Gadsden’s continued boom performances for Week 9.
While the Giants’ offense is in trouble with no Cam Skattebo and facing a strong 49ers defense who has only allowed 0.46 points per touch to QBs, there is a weak spot in the defense when looking at their run stop. They have allowed 0.98 points per touch to RBs in the last five weeks, giving room for Tyrone Tracy to shine in Week 9.
