NFL Team Performance Trends Week 15 (Fantasy Football)

In this article, I will be diving into NFL team performance trends going into Week 15. The stats displayed in this article all refer to the graphics at the end. For general reference, EPA stands for expected points added; the term is used frequently in the article and measures the expected points generated by a given play. Essentially, it is a measure of how efficient (good or bad) a player or team is.

It’s playoff season! Let’s dive into the data.

Team Performance Trends

The following takeaways mainly refer to the EPA trendline chart shown below, which shows how each team is trending both offensively and defensively week to week.

Not only are the Colts trending down in offensive efficiency, but they have just lost their QB, Daniel Jones, to a season-ending Achilles injury. Look for this trend to continue through the playoffs, and try to avoid starts like Alec Pierce, Michael Pittman, and Josh Downs.

On the flip side, the Seahawks face the Colts in Week 15 and are red-hot defensively. The last time they had a defensive performance below the average EPA/play (0.0) was Week 5! Look for them to take full advantage of the Colts’ bleeding offense and to have a monster game in fantasy. They have allowed below 0.7 points per touch to RBs in the last five weeks as well, meaning Jonathan Taylor, while they likely will rely on him, will have difficulty racking up points.

The Chiefs are falling off offensively. They have plummeted below the league average (0.0) for offensive EPA/play, meaning they are playing inefficient football. The fantasy points in KC are dwindling, and it likely won’t get better against a stout Chargers defense who has a 0.03 EPA/play defensively on the season.

The Bills are now the league leader in offensive EPA/play, with 0.13 EPA/play on the season, per the third visual below. They face New England in Week 15 in what surely will be a close one. NE has allowed 2.87 points per touch to WRs, the most of any position group. Look for another playable performance from Khalil Shakir in Week 15.

The Vikings seem to be trending up on both sides of the ball, looking at the chart below. They face Dallas in Week 15, who have struggled defensively all season; in recent weeks, they have really struggled against RBs, allowing 1.14 points per touch to the position, 2nd most in the league. Look to start Aaron Jones in Week 15 and expect big numbers from him.

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Positional Trends

If you are in search of a TE streaming option this week, look towards Theo Johnson or Isaiah Likely. The Giants face the Commanders, who have allowed 2.98 points per touch the past five weeks to TEs, a league high, while the Ravens face the Bengals, who have allowed 2.84 points per touch to TEs in the last 5 weeks.

Detroit has continued to struggle against WRs, allowing 3.06 points per touch to the position in the last five weeks. Davante Adams and Puka Nacua are in for monster weeks, as is Matthew Stafford.

Tampa Bay has had difficulty against QBs in recent weeks, but it is likely a product of facing mobile passers. As they square up against the Falcons, Kirk Cousins shouldn’t be a major threat to the Tampa defense. Don’t be fooled by the Bucs’ weakness in this regard, and avoid streaming Kirk Cousins.

If you have been riding the rollercoaster that is Colston Loveland, Week 15 will likely be a downward drop. The Bears face the Browns in Week 15, who are more middle of the pack against TEs in recent weeks, allowing just 2.27 points per touch. As he has averaged around 3.5 catches a game in recent weeks, he likely won’t produce great numbers for the first week of the playoffs.