NFL Team Performance Trends Week 13 (Fantasy Football)
In this article, I’ll be diving into NFL team performance trends going into Week 13. The stats displayed in this article all refer to the graphics at the end. For general reference, EPA stands for expected points added; the term is used frequently in the article and measures the expected points generated by a given play. Essentially, it is a measure of how efficient (good or bad) a player or team is.
Let’s jump into the stats.
Offensive Takeaways
Please reference the EPA trend chart below for the following takeaways: it shows team offensive and defensive EPA per play on a week-to-week basis. It helps us understand which teams are hot and cold.
The Cardinals have been slowly declining in offensive efficiency, with their EPA/play dropping below 0.0 for the 3rd week in a row. They face the Bucs in Week 13, who have a fairly neutral -0.01 EPA/play on defense this season. This may be a good time to unload assets like Trey Benson, who returns from injury soon, or Marvin Harrison Jr., as their offense declines.
The Panthers are trending down in terms of offense. In three of the past five weeks, they have had a negative EPA/play offensively, and they face a stout Rams defense this week, so avoid your Carolina players if you can.
The Chargers’ offense has been plummeting in efficiency, but luckily for them, they face a shaky Raiders defense in Week 13, and stud RB Omarion Hampton could return. Look for a strong performance specifically from the LAC WRs, as the Raiders have allowed 2.73 points per touch to WRs in the past five weeks.
The Vikings’ offense is also plummeting. This is an opportunity to buy low on players like Justin Jefferson and Aaron Jones, as they have had negative EPA/play offensively four of their past five weeks. They have a difficult Week 13 matchup against the Seahawks, then face the Commanders, Cowboys, and Giants in their next three.
Defensive Takeaways
Looking for breakout TEs? The worst defenses against the TE position in the past five weeks are the Bengals, allowing 3.16 points per touch, and the Lions, allowing 3.14. They play the Ravens and the Packers, respectively, so look for Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely to all have solid weeks. The Commanders have allowed 2.96 points per touch to the position, meaning if you are in a pinch, Evan Engram could fill in for a good week.
The Patriots face the Giants in Week 13, and boy, are the New England WRs in for a treat. The Giants have allowed 3.28 points per touch to WRs in the past 5 weeks, making Pop Douglas, Stefon Diggs, and Kayshon Boutte all viable starts this week. On the reverse, the Patriots have allowed a high 3.14 points per touch to WRs themselves, making Darius Slayton and Wandale Robinson strong starts for Week 13 as well.
The Bucs continue to struggle against the run, allowing 1.13 points per touch to RBs in their last five games. They face the Cardinals in Week 13, so whoever gets the start, whether it be Bam Knight or Trey Benson, should be a viable flex option this week.
The Falcons have greatly struggled against WRs in recent weeks, allowing over three points per touch to the position. They face the Jets in Week 13, making John Metchie a viable fantasy option at flex in deeper leagues.
Two red-hot defensive units are the Ravens and 49ers, based on the trend chart above. Their defensive EPA has steadily risen above 0.0 in recent weeks, and they both have favorable matchups against the Bengals and Browns, respectively, in Week 13. Look to stream these options if you can.
