NFL Team Performance Trends Week 12 (Fantasy Football)
In this article, I’ll be diving into NFL team performance trends going into Week 11. The stats displayed in this article all refer to the graphics at the end. For general reference, EPA stands for expected points added; the term is used frequently in the article and measures the expected points generated by a given play. Essentially, it is a measure of how efficient (good or bad) a player or team is.
Let’s get into the stats.
Offensive Takeaways
The Chargers’ offense is running into the ground. Looking at the third chart, which shows EPA trends, their offensive production has plummeted below 0 in multiple weeks. As they go into their bye week, it could be time to trade away some of your LAC players before the deadline.
The 49ers are heating up offensively. George Kittle is healthy and performing at a top level, and Brock Purdy is also back in the lineup. They face the Panthers’ defense who has a -0.04 EPA/play defensively on the season, giving them a strong matchup for Week 12.
The Bengals had a terrible week offensively in Week 11, dropping far below the league average of 0.0 EPA/play. They play a fierce and red-hot Patriots defense in Week 12, who have a 0.03 EPA/play on defense this season, making your Bengals options in fantasy less valuable. Look to stray away from guys like Chase Brown and Joe Flacco this week; the only position group the Patriots allow more points per touch on average than the rest of the league (in the past 5 weeks) is WRs, based on the second table below.
The Falcons and Saints are colliding at what might be the best time for New Orleans. Based on Chart 3, their offensive efficiency is heading up, while the Falcons’ defense has been performing worse than average. Tyler Shough could be a viable QB streaming option this week, and Alvin Kamara could surprise with a strong performance.
The Eagles’ offense is trending down; they have performed under league average for two consecutive weeks in offensive efficiency. The good thing for them is they take on the Cowboys in Week 12, who have one of the worst defenses in the league at -0.11 EPA/play. While you might be down on your Eagles, give them a start for Week 12.
Defensive Takeaways
Looking for the best TE options for Week 12? Look no further. Hunter Henry is the obvious choice, as Cincinnati has allowed a league-high 3.63 points per touch to TEs in their last five games. Outside of Henry, the top-tier TEs have the easiest matchups – Brock Bowers takes on the Browns, who allow 3.08 points per touch to TEs, Kelce takes on the Colts, who also allow 3.08 points per touch, and McBride faces the Jaguars, who are allowing 2.92 points per touch. Look for massive performances from these guys – the week of the TE!
Minnesota is really struggling to stop WRs – in the last five weeks, they have allowed 3.19 points per touch to WRs. They face the Packers in Week 12, leaving the door open for another huge performance from Christian Watson, and potentially FLEX performances from Matthew Golden and Romeo Doubs.
Two teams that cannot seem to stop the run in the last five weeks are the Bills and the Buccaneers, who have given up 1.06 and 1.33 points per touch to the position, respectively. The Bills have the Texans, and the Bucs have the Rams, making Woody Marks and Kyren Williams (as always) great options, and even giving Blake Corum the opportunity to produce a bit more fantasy-wise.
