NFC South Divisional Podcast Recap for 2023 (Fantasy Football)
It’s time to slide down to the NFC South and continue the Baller’s division-by-division preview through the NFL. As a reminder, this is a general overview of the teams heading into the 2023 season. Andy, Mike, and Jason discuss the offseason changes to remember for each team (i.e. players, rookies, coaches) and how that could affect the fantasy pieces for the upcoming season.
A reminder that we are up to three shows a week now – tune into The Fantasy Footballers Podcast on any and all of your devices!
To take an even deeper dive into fantasy players in the NFC South, make sure to check out the full array of the UDK’s tools available to make your fantasy team a champion!
Let’s Get Divisional – NFC South
The 2022 season was one to forget for the entire NFC South after all four teams finished with a negative point differential. On the bright side, the entire division had a shot to make the playoffs by winning the division up until Week 17.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)
Player Additions: QB Baker Mayfield; RB Chase Edmonds
Player Subtractions: QB Tom Brady; RB Leonard Fournette
Rookies: Round 5 (No. 171): TE Payne Durham; Round 6 (No. 191): WR Trey Palmer
2022 Offensive Ranks
| Pace of Play | PPG | Total Yards | Pass Att. | Pass Yards | Pass TDs | Rush Att. | Rush Yards | Rush TD | |
| 2 | 25 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 32 | 32 | 32 |
Tom Brady’s retirement marks the end of an era for the Buccaneers as they try to move forward following his disappointing final season. The man to take over for Tom Brady at the moment seems to be former number 1 pick, Baker Mayfield. Mayfield’s stops in Cleveland, Carolina, and Los Angeles left much to be desired and it’s no different for fantasy since he’s only been a top-12 QB in 25% of his career starts.
The brightest spot that fantasy managers will find in Tampa Bay still lies at the WR spot with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Evans has posted nine straight seasons of 1,000+ yards, despite some questionable QB play for most of that stretch. Meanwhile, Godwin’s first season recovering from an ACL tear still saw him garner a target on 22% of his routes run. There’s a really good chance that Evans and Godwin are getting the same ADP treatment that Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf got last summer when fantasy managers were too concerned with who will be getting them the ball instead of betting on the known commodity that is their talent.
Tampa Bay’s running game was dismal, to be kind, in 2022. Luckily, there may be some clarity coming to the backfield after the Buccaneers released Leonard Fournette, giving 2nd-year RB Rachaad White the chance to see the bulk of the carries. White didn’t have a monster rookie season, but he did finish as an RB24 or higher in four out of five games from Weeks 10 to 16 and is one of just 11 rookie RBs in the last 10 years to have 50+ receptions. If White is going to become a proper top-24 RB consistently with the volume he’s expected to have, he’ll have to improve on the 2.39 yards after contact he finished with last year.
There is a chance for a TE emergence in Tampa Bay from 2nd-year TE Cade Otton. As a rookie, Otton ran the 6th most routes among TEs and saw the 5th most red zone targets in the league at his position. The Fantasy Hitman has Otton the highest at TE18, foreseeing a path to relevance now that here’s got a clearer way to being the main TE for the Buccaneers.
Vegas Projected Win Total: 6.5
Carolina Panthers (7-10)
Player Additions: RB Miles Sanders; WR Adam Thielen; WR DJ Chark; QB Andy Dalton; TE Hayden Hurst
Player Subtractions: WR DJ Moore; RB D’Onta Foreman
Rookies: Round 1 (No. 1): QB Bryce Young; Round 2 (No. 39): WR Jonathan Mingo
2022 Offensive Ranks
| Pace of Play | PPG | Total Yards | Pass Att. | Pass Yards | Pass TDs | Rush Att. | Rush Yards | Rush TD | |
| 23 | 20 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 28 | 12 | 10 | 11 |
A splash of an offseason leaves the Carolina Panthers in full rebuild mode after they finally got their QB with the NFL draft’s top pick in Bryce Young. Young should be the Panthers’ starter from Week 1, given the amount of capital that Carolina gave up to move to the top spot and select him. Carolina paired Young with former Colts head coach, Frank Reich, who actually threw the 1st TD in Panthers history. Fantasy managers have to keep in mind that since 2010, only four rookie QBs surpassed 4,000 passing yards and only three threw more than 25 TDs, so sustained success for fantasy options this year in Carolina may be limited.
One of the better bets for fantasy managers with the Panthers could be RB Miles Sanders, who joined Carolina as a free agent this summer. Sanders took advantage of being the main RB in Philadelphia in 2022, finishing with the 5th most rushing yards and the 4th most red zone touches in the league. The most exciting thing about Sanders ahead of 2023 is all the talk about increasing work in the passing game. Sanders had 50 receptions as a rookie so he definitely has the ability to be a proper receiving option, but hasn’t surpassed 30 since. If Sanders is worked into the passing game like he’s being hyped, he could be a strong value as the current RB19 in drafts, especially with Chuba Hubbard as the only competition for touches.
As exciting as Sanders could be for fantasy managers, the receiving options in Carolina sit on the opposite end of that spectrum. Since 2004, rookie QBs have failed to sustain even a top-36 WR 70% of the time. The combination of Adam Thielen, DJ Chark, and rookie Jonathan Mingo doesn’t seem like the trio to buck that trend. Thielen and Chark project to be the main WRs to start the year, but Mingo has the physical profile and draft capital that suggests he could be an option to keep your fantasy eye on during the back half of the season.
Vegas Projected Win Total: 7.5
New Orleans Saints (7-10)
Player Additions: QB Derek Carr; RB Jamaal Williams; TE Foster Moreau
Player Subtractions: QB Andy Dalton; RB Mark Ingram; WR Jarvis Landry
Rookies: Round 3 (No. 71): RB Kendre Miller; Round 4 (No. 127): QB Jake Haener; Round 6 (No. 195): WR A.T. Perry
2022 Offensive Ranks
| Pace of Play | PPG | Total Yards | Pass Att. | Pass Yards | Pass TDs | Rush Att. | Rush Yards | Rush TD | |
| 20 | 22 | 19 | 26 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 19 | 22 |
Possibly the best team from top to bottom in the NFC South, the New Orleans Saints seem to have positioned themselves in the right spot to make a return to the playoffs in 2023. The biggest position of weakness in 2022 for the Saints had to be their play at QB, and they made a significant upgrade at the position by signing Derek Carr this offseason. Carr may not have the fantasy numbers that fantasy managers are looking for, but he has shown the ability to sustain high-end fantasy receiving options: Davante Adams WR3 in 2022, Hunter Renfrow WR11 in 2021, and Darren Waller TE2 in 2020. While Carr may be a streaming option or a strong QB2 in SuperFlex leagues, what he signifies is stability for an offense that is littered with high-end fantasy pieces.
Maybe we’re just spoiled, but Alvin Kamara’s RB18 season in 2022 felt like a disappointment. What’s important to remember is Kamara has never finished lower than that RB18 spot and is still the best back in New Orleans. If fantasy managers can get clarity on whether or not there will be some sort of suspension for Kamara before their drafts, he could be a strong value currently going in the 7th round. Behind Kamara, there are legitimate options to fill in if he misses time or to be that second punch that the Saints are known to utilize alongside him. Jamaal Williams is coming off his 17-TD season in Detroit, and while that may have been an outlier of a season, it did show he’s capable of making the most of opportunities when they’re presented. Meanwhile, rookie Kendre Miller could be an interesting option down the stretch of the season since he’s still recovering from MCL surgery.
The receiving options in New Orleans might be the most exciting fantasy parts managers will have to consider this draft season. Chris Olave was great as a rookie, seeing a target per route run higher than any other receiver in the league except Tyreek Hill. What we have to remember is that Olave was doing this with Andy Dalton at QB for most of the season, so there should be an expected step forward with Carr under center. On top of that, Carr has a history of using his best-receiving targets. If Michael Thomas can get onto the field consistently, the Saints will have a handful of dangerous weapons that could propel them to a division title.
New Orleans has one of the most interesting TE rooms in the league, led by Juwan Johnson, who finished as a top-eight TE five different weeks last season. When you add in Taysom Hill (2022’s TE5) and free agent addition Foster Moreau, there are plenty of legitimate options at TE for the Saints. The worry might be that there are too many options to make one of them have stand-alone relevance.
Vegas Projected Win Total: 9.5
Atlanta Falcons (7-10)
Player Additions: QB Taylor Heinicke; WR Mack Hollins; WR Scott Miller; WR KhaDarel Hodge; TE Jonnu Smith
Player Subtractions: QB Marcus Mariota; WR Olamide Zaccheaus
Rookies: Round 1 (No. 8): RB Bijan Robinson
2022 Offensive Ranks
| Pace of Play | PPG | Total Yards | Pass Att. | Pass Yards | Pass TDs | Rush Att. | Rush Yards | Rush TD | |
| 22 | 15 | 24 | 31 | 31 | 24 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
The eyes of the fantasy world will be on Atlanta due to their heavy draft investment into RB Bijan Robinson. Robinson enters the league as one of the best RB prospects in some time after a great final collegiate season where he produced 37% of Texas’ yards and set the PFF record for forced missed tackles with 104. For fantasy purposes, Robinson walks into a Falcons offense that ran the ball more than any other team in 2022, which should provide a safe floor for fantasy managers who are investing early draft picks in him. Since 2010, 1st round rookie RBs that play 14 or more games average 1,408 yards and nearly nine TDs.
Outside of Robinson, Atlanta’s passing attack is suspect at best. There’s no doubt that there is gold in them there hills with talents like Drake London and Kyle Pitts, but if the Falcons can’t get better play from the QB position, there will be a ceiling on how much they’ll be able to contribute for fantasy managers. The small sample size we saw from Desmond Ridder in 2022 was encouraging with his nearly 29 passing attempts per game compared to just over 23 attempts per game with Marcus Mariota.
The only two receiving options for fantasy managers to really consider are WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts. As a rookie, Drake London was impressive despite Atlanta’s lackluster passing attack. London is one of just four rookie WRs with a 26% or higher target share who averaged at least two yards per route run. The other WRs on that list: Odell Beckham Jr., Chris Olave, and Justin Jefferson. Pitts meanwhile has struggled to live up to the hype that comes with going 4th overall as a TE. Over his last 10 games played, Pitts saw a 27% target share so there’s plenty to still be optimistic about. Mike and Jason have Pitts at TE3 and TE4 respectively, and argue that the ceiling is still worth taking the shot on in the 5th or 6th round.
Vegas Projected Win Total: 8.5 (bet up from 7.5)
Ballers Predictions
| Andy | Jason | Mike |
| Atlanta | New Orleans | Atlanta |
| New Orleans | Atlanta | New Orleans |
| Carolina | Carolina | Tampa Bay |
| Tampa Bay | Tampa Bay | Carolina |