Fantasy Football Target Trends for Week 11
Welcome to the target trends article for Week 11! The fantasy playoffs are within sight, and target trends are more important than ever when searching for viable fantasy options. As usual, this article will start with the overall target trends for the season.
Despite his lowest single-game target total of the season (5) on Monday night, Diggs became the first player to hit triple-digit targets this season. His 10.2 targets/game, however, ranks fifth behind Ja’Marr Chase (11.0), Keenan Allen (10.8), Tyreek Hill (10.8), and Puka Nacua (10.7). Davante Adams (9.8) and Michael Pittman Jr. (9.8) are the next closest.
T.J. Hockenson is pulling away from the tight end field with 95 targets. That’s 23 more than the next closest at the position, Travis Kelce. He has also overtaken Kelce for the per-game lead with 9.5 targets/game. Evan Engram ranks third with 68 targets.
Alvin Kamara continues leading all running backs with 56 targets, exactly 8.0 per game. He’s the only running back with over 50 targets so far this season. There are only four running backs with 40 or more targets; Christian McCaffrey (47), Josh Jacobs (45), Rhamondre Stevenson (45), and Bijan Robinson (43).
I’ll continue leading off this article with season-long target leaders, but for now, let’s check out this week’s target trends heading into Week 11.
T.J. Hockenson: 15 targets, 11 rec
Hockenson has been a true target hog without Justin Jefferson. He’s averaged 11.2 targets/game in the five games without Jefferson. That ramps up to a ridiculous 13.5 targets/game since Joshua Dobbs took over at quarterback in Minnesota. He’s now on pace for 161 targets on the season, which would surpass the record of 156 set by Zach Ertz in 2018.
Dell has been the hot hand in Houston lately, earning 25 targets over the last two weeks. The only players with more over that span are CeeDee Lamb (30), T.J. Hockenson (27), and Garrett Wilson (27). It’s been enough to raise his team target share from 16% over the first eight weeks up to his current 21% share on the season. As for Brown, he’s seen at least a 21% target share in three of the last four games and is on pace for a career-high 102 targets on the season. The target distribution, however, could change with the pending returns of Nico Collins and Robert Woods.
Lamb, a.k.a. the best player in all of fantasy football over the past three weeks, has seen 44(!) targets over his last three games. For perspective, that pace over 17 games would equate to 249 targets. That may be unsustainable, but with his league-best rest-of-season schedule for WRs, Lamb could be a league winner. As for Cooks, this was the first time he saw double-digit targets all season and his most since Week 3. Meanwhile, on the other side of the field in Week 10, the Giants targeted ten different players, though none saw more than four.
Keenan Allen – 14 targets, 11 rec
Allen is no stranger to targets; he’s been targeted 14 times or more in 16 separate games over his career. His 97 targets on the season are more than Joshua Palmer (39), Quentin Johnson (28), and the injured Mike Williams (26) combined. He should continue to see one of the strongest target shares in the NFL over the rest of the season.
Garrett Wilson: 14 targets, 9 rec
Wilson leads the NFL with a 33% team target share on the season. The only player with more targets than Wilson over the last three weeks is CeeDee Lamb. He’s on pace for 179 targets on the season, which would easily surpass the 147 that went his way as a rookie last year. Now imagine if he had a first-ballot Hall of Famer targeting him instead of Zach Wilson.
Davante Adams: 13 targets, 6 rec
With Garrett Wilson and an injured (but quickly recovering) Aaron Rodgers on the other sideline Sunday night, Adams saw his most targets since Week 4. He still sports a massive 32% team target share, despite averaging just 7.0 targets/game from Weeks 5-9. That market share should hold strong, though the targets from Aidan O’Connell may leave something to be desired.
Michale Pittman: 12 targets, 8 rec
Pittman is continuing his rock-solid season. He’s been targeted at least 11 times in six of ten games this season and leads the Colts with a 30.4% team target share. The next closest on the team is rookie Josh Downs, with a 19% share. Pitty City heads into the bye week on pace for 167 targets, which would crush his career high of 141 from last season.
Tyler Boyd: 12 targets, 8 rec
With Tee Higgins out and Ja’Marr Chase fighting through a back injury, Boyd led the way for Cincy. He saw double-digit targets for the first time all season in the shootout with Houston. Higgins is likely to miss again with the Bengals playing Thursday on a short week, so Boyd is a viable option, albeit in a tough matchup with Baltimore.
The target distribution in Jacksonville has been interesting to monitor all season. Kirk is pulling away with 71 targets, while Ridley feels disappointing after a season-low three targets puts him at just 61. Evan Engram has been the most consistent, with at least seven targets in eight consecutive games.
Mike Evans: 10 targets, 6 rec
It’s shaping up to be another studly season for Evans, the current fantasy WR9 overall. He’s on pace for 132 targets, which would be his most since 2018. Who would’ve thought that Baker Mayfield would be as (or more?) effective for Evans than Tom Brady?
Christian McCaffrey: 10 targets, 6 rec
Sure, two of CMC’s targets came from Sam Darnold in garbage time as San Fransisco force-fed him in an effort to keep his TD streak alive. Still, his ten targets were nearly as many as Brandon Aiyuk (3), Deebo Samuel (4), and George Kittle (4) combined. Week 10 was one of the rare games where all of the 49ers’ offensive weapons were productive for fantasy.
Demario Douglas: 9 targets, 6 rec
Pop has seen at least seven targets in three consecutive games, including his season-high nine against the Colts in Germany. His 23 targets over the last three weeks lead the Patriots, ahead of Rhamondre Stevenson (15), Hunter Henry (14), and JuJu Smith-Schuster (9).
McBride was the most-targeted Cardinal in Kyler Murray’s season debut. He’s averaged 9.3 targets/game since Zach Ertz went on IR, which is in the same ballpark as Travis Kelce and T.J. Hockenson’s season-long pace. Hollywood Brown, on the other hand, saw a disappointing four targets from Murray in Week 10.
Diontae Johnson: 4 targets, 1 rec
The Steelers didn’t need a target hog in Week 10 as Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren combined for 183 rushing yards on 31 attempts. Johnson’s four targets tied for the team lead with George Pickens, Connor Heyward, Najee Harris, and Jaylen Warren. Still, it was disappointing for Diontae, who had seen 29 total targets over his previous three games.
Mark Andrews: 4 targets, 2 rec
Andrews is averaging just 6.6 targets/game, his lowest rate since 2020. The four targets that went his way in Week 10 were a new season-low and the fewest he’s seen since Week 6 of 2020. His 23% team target share is still third among all tight ends, but it’s only second on Baltimore behind rookie wideout Zay Flowers (24.5%)
Jahan Dotson: 2 targets, 0 rec
Dotson was finally starting to feel reliable after getting targeted 26 times over the previous three weeks. Unfortunately, the bottom fell out in Week 10. Sam Howell targeted 11 different players against the Seahawks, and nearly all of them, including Byron Pringle and Alex Armah, caught more passes than Dotson. He’s seen eight or more targets in four games this season but also four or fewer in three games.