Analyzing Wide Receiver Performances for Week 4 (Fantasy Football)

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Week 3 is behind us, so let us look at the week that was, and see what we can gather from the results of another crazy week in the NFL. In this week’s edition of the wide receiver deep dive we will take a look at our three major stats aDOT, TPRR, and YPRR, and as promised I will share my PRS scores for the top 12 wide receivers so far this season. Let’s get into it!

Average Depth of Target (aDOT)

Overperformer: Keenan Allen (Los Angeles Chargers)

aDOT: 6.2 yards
Result: 18 receptions, 215 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 30.5 (half-PPR)

Keenan Allen is so good. The fantasy community gets so excited about the new hotness much too often and forgets to appreciate how good some of these older players are. Keenan is one of those guys. Keenan certainly overproduced in receiving yards considering the short targets he got, but if he is going to keep getting peppered with targets it may not matter. KA was so involved in this game that he even hit Mike Williams for a deep passing touchdown earlier in the game before Mike Williams went down with a season-ending ACL tear. With Mike Will going down to injury, Keenan should continue to see a massive target share, so he may continue to overperform a smaller aDOT.

Underperformer: DeAndre Hopkins (Tennessee Titans)

aDOT: 16.5 yards
Result: 3 receptions, 48 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 6.3 (half-PPR)

As someone who had a Titans wide receiver as a “My Guy,” I am worried that Ryan Tannehill is going to continuously have me writing about the Tennessee Titans wideouts all year in the underperformer sections. When there are nine early games, one game must be played from my laptop. This game did not start as the laptop game, but after about two Tennessee drives it hit the laptop quickly. The Cleveland defense is ferocious, but Tennessee looks very bad right now. DHop was getting targets down the field but I doubt he will be doing much with them for the next few weeks. Until the Titans’ offensive line can protect Tannehill, there is little chance I will want to play DHop or Treylon Burks unless it is an extremely favorable matchup.

Targets per Route Run (TPRR)

For a deeper dive into TPRR, check out AJ Passman’s Targets Per Route Run Report for Week 4.

Overperformer: DJ Chark Jr. (Carolina Panthers)

TPRR: 0.161
Result: 4 receptions, 86 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 16.6 (half-PPR)

DJ Chark Jr. ran an insane 62 routes on Sunday in Seattle! That was the most of any player in Week 3, as we saw a high-flying game between the Panthers and Seahawks. If he continues to run 50+ routes per game then he can surely keep producing for fantasy. That route number should come down over the coming games, but it may not this week as he will face the Vikings’ defense that has been Swiss cheese thus far. Mike’s Steel Underpants stream of the week is Andy Dalton against the Vikings’ defense so he should see another week of high routes run in a high-scoring affair. But look for this TPRR number to come back to bite him sooner rather than later.

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Underperformer: Rashee Rice (Kansas City Chiefs)

TPRR: 0.333
Result: 5 receptions, 59 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 8.4 (half-PPR)

On a day where Swifties everywhere were watching Donna Kelce’s press box, Rashee Rice was having himself a nice day on the field of play and would’ve had a 14+ fantasy point day if not for the dreaded replay that had him down at the one-yard line. Rice has been steadily earning the trust of Patrick Mahomes and he is getting targets when he is on the field. This game got out of hand by halftime, so the need to sling the ball around was not there for Mahomes and company. In more neutral game scripts the Chiefs will be inclined to do a bit more passing, and as Rice gets a more prominent role in the offense, his fantasy production should start to increase as well.

Yards per Route Run (YPRR)

Overperformer: Gabe Davis (Buffalo Bills)

YPRR: 1.09
Result: 1 reception, 35 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 10 (half-PPR)

We won’t need a calculator to figure out that 1.09 yards per route run does not make for a great outing. Let’s just say, it could’ve been a much better day. Gabe had fantasy managers hoping for a big day after his 35-yard touchdown catch in the 1st quarter. But alas, managers were left with one big play to start their day and then they did not see another catch of any kind from Gabe. Gabe Davis remains a boom-or-bust play week to week, but when your quarterback is Josh Allen, you can bet that he will get his chances each week.

Underperformer: Tyreek Hill (Miami Dolphins)

YPRR: 7.48
Result: 9 receptions, 157 receiving yards, 1 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 26.2

Huh? How can Tyreek Hill be listed as an underperformer? He went crazy this week! Well, unfortunately, Tyreek Hill did go crazy and so did the Dolphins. So ridiculously crazy in fact that Tyreek was not really needed after the first half. Tyreek could have easily had a 40-point fantasy game on Sunday if they had any reason to keep him out there. This Dolphins’ offense is putting up historic numbers and the advanced metrics Tyreek has been producing point to even more fantasy production to come.

Applying PRS to Predict Fantasy Points Moving Forward

I don’t have any buy-low or sell-high candidates this week as the games were wild with a lot of scoring. These kinds of weeks tend to lead to overreactions or managers that try to take advantage of a big-scoring output game by trading them away for a more known commodity. As the PRS model continues to be tuned, I do want to point out one thing I have seen. Kalif Raymond should get more playing time for Detroit. Raymond is seeing a 16.1 aDOT, 2.81 YPRR, and 0.233 TPRR. He has been extremely efficient when on the field and the Lions just paid him all that money this offseason. Not quite sure what I am seeing there that Detroit is not, but Raymond is passing the advanced stats test and the eye test. With that said let’s reveal the top 12 in PRS through Week 3!

Top-12 Wide Receivers in PRS Through Week 3

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Player PRS Predicted FP/G Actual FP/G Over/Under Predicted
Tyreek Hill 133.9 27.03 25.90 -1.13
Mike Evans 100.8 20.01 18.73 -1.27
Brandon Aiyuk 97.1 19.22 17.35 -1.87
Davante Adams 96.8 19.16 20.90 1.74
Keenan Allen 89 17.49 22.73 5.24
Justin Jefferson 84.8 16.61 21.77 5.16
Jakobi Meyers 82.1 16.04 18.30 2.26
Kalif Raymond 81.7 15.95 7.20 -8.75
Chris Olave 80.7 15.72 13.73 -1.99
Amon-Ra St. Brown 78.4 15.24 14.67 -0.57
Puka Nacua 78.2 15.2 16.27 1.07
Tank Dell 74 14.32 14.87 0.55

Tank Dell with his first appearance of the year! That will do it for this week’s edition of the deep dive. Good luck to everyone this coming week and may the fantasy gods be ever in your favor!

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