Analyzing Wide Receiver Performances for Week 13 (Fantasy Football)

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In Week 12, we saw Zay Flowers throw some bouquets, kick some penalties, and score some touchdowns. We saw Josh Allen lose yet another overtime game in which his defense gave up numerous points. There was also some bad football on Thanksgiving as well as the first-ever Black Friday game where we saw a Hail Mary pick-six. There are loads of interesting tidbits from the week per usual, so let’s get into it and take a look at some of the advanced statistics from last week to help us make sound fantasy decisions moving forward. We will look at aDOT, TPRR, and YPRR, and an update to my PRS (Predictive Receiver Score).

Average Depth of Target (aDOT)

Overperformer: Zay Flowers (Baltimore Ravens)

aDOT: 6 yards
Result: 5 receptions, 25 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 11 (half-PPR)

Zay had a chance to show off his skills with the ball in his hands on Sunday night. He may have scored on a rushing touchdown late in the game to really propel his fantasy day, but he also scored the first touchdown of the night with a short red zone target from Lamar Jackson. This landed him in the studs category on Monday’s show. Action Jackson and the Ravens did not score nearly as many points as the box score would have suggested, and the Ravens’ offense has been running the ball so well that the passing game has suffered a bit. Zay has seen his aDOT decrease over the past few weeks and the deep/intermediate targets are becoming rare for the young wideout. He will need to produce with high volume and explosive YAC plays as the offense continues to find ways to get him the ball down the field.

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Underperformer: Jalin Hyatt (New York Giants)

aDOT: 20.8 yards
Result: 5 receptions, 109 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 13.4 (half-PPR)

Tommy DeVito seems to have taken the criticism after his first start to heart because that man has rattled off two wins in a row for his New York Giants. Jalin Hyatt decided to get in on the fun this week with six targets, and they were DEEP. Hyatt has an aDOT this year of 24.4, which is almost three full yards more than the next closest receiver that has at least 15 routes run a game. It has been a boom or bust type of formula for Hyatt thus far in his career and he was good this week. With six targets of this type of deep variety, Hyatt can always explode for your squad or leave you with a big ole goose egg.

Targets per Route Run (TPRR)

For a deeper dive into TPRR, check out AJ Passman’s Targets Per Route Run Report for Week 13.

Overperformer: Jahan Dotson (Washington Commanders)

TPRR: 13.3%
Result: 5 receptions, 52 receiving yards, 0 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 7.7 (half-PPR)

The Commanders are allowing their opponents to score so quickly that a lot of their box scores look similar to the one they produced on Thanksgiving. They run so many plays and are almost always behind, so they are passing at an astronomical rate right now. Sam Howell has 50 more passing attempts than any other QB in the NFL. This sounds like a recipe for Jahan Dotson, a player whom a lot of analysts loved prior to the season’s start, to explode and have a giant year. That may be why it is all that much more tilting for us to watch Jahan not produce in such a favorable environment for fantasy production. This year, if he doesn’t score a touchdown in a game, he’s been extremely replaceable in your lineup.

Underperformer: Deebo Samuel (San Francisco 49ers)

TPRR: 33.3%
Result: 7 receptions, 79 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 11.4 (half-PPR)

Deebo was not an underperformer for your fantasy football team this week. But when I started this series I did say I was analyzing wide receivers and Deebo gets a lot of his value from the halfback spot on the field. So with that said, when I write about Deebo being an underperformer, that is me saying that his fantasy points from receiving in comparison to his TPRR number were shorter than I normally see in my database. Deebo will continue to rely upon his rushing prowess to accumulate big fantasy games, but as we come down the stretch, I suspect the 49ers will continue to see-saw the opportunities given to their stud players while one or two get left out week by week (except CMC of course, he always gets his).

Yards per Route Run (YPRR)

Overperformer: Justin Watson (Kansas City Chiefs)

YPRR: 0.13
Result: 1 receptions, 3 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 6.8 (half-PPR)

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This is honestly impressive. Make one catch and then absolutely get in the Raider defender’s face! Justin Watson is on the field a lot for the Chiefs and runs a decent amount of routes, but there is no fantasy value here with Watson. We saw Rashee Rice break out last week and finally get going as the number one WR for the Chiefs. I suspect that Patrick Mahomes will continue to go to Rice as long as he catches the ball and continues to gain his trust. Justin Watson will be there from week to week to make a clutch play or two, but there is no expectation on my end for him to be relevant at all going forward.

Underperformer: Drake London (Atlanta Falcons)

YPRR: 4.33
Result: 5 receptions, 91 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 11.6 (half-PPR)

I sit here and smile as a Bijan Robinson manager. Thank you Arthur Smith for capitulating and giving the ball to one of your best players! That being said, Desmond Ridder also did a great job of getting his best pass catcher the ball as Drake London saw seven targets on 21 attempts. He made the most of those targets and almost eclipsed the 100-yard mark on five receptions. If Drake hadn’t run only 21 routes he could have had a really big day for fantasy, but alas, the formula for the Falcons is to run the ball and play good defense. That means Drake should have a decent floor going forward, but he won’t have much of a chance for explosive games without multi-touchdowns.

Applying Predictive Receiver Score (PRS) to Predict Fantasy Points Moving Forward

If you would like to see how I came up with my PRS calculation or the correlation numbers behind it, take a look at my first article in this series.

Here are the Top 24 Wide Receivers in PRS Through Week 12:

Player PRS Predicted FP/G Actual FP/G Over/Under Predicted
Tyreek Hill 113.68 22.73 21.48 -1.25
Brandon Aiyuk 79.98 15.58 14.06 -1.52
Justin Jefferson 79.62 15.5 18.62 3.12
CeeDee Lamb 78.19 15.2 16.51 1.31
Amon-Ra St. Brown 75.39 14.61 17.03 2.42
Keenan Allen 75.26 14.58 18.35 3.78
A.J. Brown 73.87 14.28 16.68 2.4
Rashee Rice 71.34 13.75 9.52 -4.23
Nico Collins 69.92 13.45 13.5 0.05
Mike Evans 69.75 13.41 15.09 1.68
Puka Nacua 69.09 13.27 13.35 0.08
Noah Brown 68.19 13.08 12.08 -1
Jaylen Waddle 66.91 12.81 11.31 -1.5
Stefon Diggs 64.96 12.39 15.53 3.14
DJ Moore 64.49 12.29 14.3 2.01
Tank Dell 63.5 12.08 13.64 1.56
DeAndre Hopkins 62.49 11.87 10.58 -1.29
Kalif Raymond 61.35 11.63 5.11 -6.52
Davante Adams 60.8 11.51 11.66 0.15
Ja’Marr Chase 60.42 11.43 14.99 3.56
Deebo Samuel 59 11.13 7.82 -3.31
Chris Olave 56.96 10.7 11.51 0.81
Demario Douglas 55.95 10.48 5.9 -4.58
Michael Pittman Jr. 54.75 10.23 12.22 1.99

It is incredible that DeAndre Hopkins continues to pop up into the top 24 in PRS when his QB play and team game scripts are so bad for fantasy production most times. Rashee Rice continues to make me feel good about this calculation as he ascends, Mike Evans is just as inevitable as Thanos at this point, and Demario Douglas stays in the top 24 week after week even with this horrible Patriots offense and the terrible QB play that he has to be on the receiving end of.

We are coming down the stretch and the fantasy playoffs are on the horizon. Make sure to plan out your streams, and if you can, grab some stash players if you are guaranteed a playoff spot. It is always exciting this time of year for fantasy football. Good luck to you, and may the fantasy odds be ever in your favor!

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