Analyzing the 2026 Rookie RB Class for Redraft
In a previous article, I evaluated how we should approach rookie RBs in redraft leagues. Last season, I applied that framework to the 2025 rookie class, and the results were mostly on script: the two first-round picks (Ashton Jeanty and Omarion Hampton) finished as fantasy-relevant backs, the Day 2 names (Quinshon Judkins, TreVeyon Henderson, RJ Harvey) clustered in the RB2 range, and most of the late-ADP guys finished where they were projected – outside the RB top 50. The model held, and as expected, ADP was a strong signal for future fantasy success.
Let’s re-run this process for 2026. First, let’s refresh ourselves on how we should be approaching rookie RBs in redraft.
Refreshed Framework
The graphic below shows rookie RB end-of-season PPR finishes plotted against their starting-season ADP among RBs, now updated through the 2025 class. The relationship is the same one we have seen for years: rookies with high ADPs (top ~70) have very high hit rates, while rookies with lower ADPs are more likely to be random hits or misses.
A few takeaways before we get to this year’s names:
- Every rookie RB who finished as a top-15 PPR back over the last six years was drafted inside the top 30 at the position.
- Rookies going outside the RB40 range hit on a top-24 finish less than 10% of the time. Bucky Irving (RB14 finish from RB58 ADP in 2024) is an example of one of these outliers.
- The 2025 class fits cleanly inside the trend. Jeanty (ADP RB9 → RB16), Hampton (RB18 → RB14 PPG before injury), Judkins (RB28 → RB26), Henderson (RB26 → RB21), and Harvey (RB32 → RB23) all finished within a few spots of where they were drafted. Kaleb Johnson and Bhayshul Tuten were also priced as misses.
In other words: trust ADP, especially for highly touted backs. Do not reach. Do not fade aggressively. The market is usually right on rookie RBs, and the cases where it is wrong are not predictable in advance. Now let’s go through this year’s class.
The 2026 Rookie RB Class
1. Jeremiyah Love — Arizona Cardinals
Current ADP: ~RB24, late Round 2 / early Round 3
Love is the centerpiece of this class and the only rookie RB who belongs in the conversation as a true difference-maker in 2026. The Cardinals took him third overall – the highest a RB has been drafted since Saquon Barkley in 2018 — and they did not pay that kind of capital to ease him in.
The only hesitation is the Cardinal’s deep depth chart. Tyler Allgeier signed a two-year deal in free agency, James Conner is still in town, and Trey Benson remains on the roster. While it may be a crowded room, history is on Love’s side – first-round RBs over the last five years have all gotten close to bell cow usage as rookies, regardless of who was already on the depth chart.
For redraft, treat Love as a high-end RB2 with RB1 upside. The ADP is fair. You are not getting a discount, but you are not paying a premium either, and that is what we want from rookies as a rule.
Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
2. Jadarian Price — Seattle Seahawks
Current ADP: ~RB61, Round 6
Price is the most interesting redraft rookie outside of Love, and his ADP reflects a market that doesn’t quite know what to do with him. He went late in Round 1 to Seattle, joining a backfield where Zach Charbonnet is recovering from a knee injury, and Kenneth Walker III is gone. That is the cleanest path-to-touches situation of any rookie not named Love.
If Charbonnet isn’t ready Week 1 – and the early signals suggest he won’t be – Price is the lead back on a team that historically leans on the run. He is a powerful, high-end athletic profile that produced excellent per-touch metrics at Notre Dame even while sharing a backfield with Love.
The variance here is wide. If Charbonnet returns to form midseason, Price becomes a 1A/1B with a soft ceiling. If he doesn’t, Price could be the best rookie value of the year. At his current ADP, you are paying the discount – exactly the way to play uncertain backfields.
Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images
3. Jonah Coleman — Denver Broncos
Current ADP: ~RB151, Round 12
Coleman was drafted by the Denver Broncos in the fourth round. Here, he fits in behind J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey in what will prove to be another crowded backfield. It is unlikely Coleman will be able to make a splash in this backfield in his first season, and his ADP reflects that. Historical trends suggest he will likely be irrelevant in the 2026 season.
Unfortunately, this year’s RB draft class is slim – only these three RBs have really gained attention. With that, good luck drafting!