The Late-Round WRs Nobody Wants to Draft But Should (Fantasy Football)

Every season, we are looking for late-round WRs who can massively outperform their ADP. Instead of looking at every receiver, I wanted to focus on one specific group: each team’s first receiver drafted by ADP. I looked back at the last five team WR1s drafted each season since 2020 to see if there were any common traits among the ones who became league winners.

About half of the last five teams’ WR1s drafted beat ADP, but going from WR48 to WR44 does not mean much. We are looking for WRs who vastly outperform their ADP, such as going from WR50 to a top-24 WR or better.

Here is what jumped out.

Historical Data

Here is every one of those late-drafted team WR1s since 2020:

The hits averaged 191 Half-PPR points, roughly a WR15 finish. Better yet, we get about two of these breakouts every season.

Here is a cleaner table with just the receivers who hit, their team’s record, passing yardage, passing TDs, and their stats:

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Season	Player	Record	Passing Yds	Passing TDs	Targets	Rec	Yards	TDs
2021	Michael Pittman Jr.	9-8	3361	27	129	88	1082	6
2021	Marquise Brown	8-9	3961	21	145	91	1008	6
2022	Garrett Wilson	7-10	3723	15	147	83	1103	4
2023	Adam Thielen	2-15	2741	13	137	103	1014	4
2023	Nico Collins	10-7	4173	27	109	80	1297	8
2024	Brian Thomas Jr.	4-13	3477	19	133	87	1282	10
2024	Courtland Sutton	10-7	3610	30	135	81	1081	8
2025	Stefon Diggs	14-3	4258	31	102	85	1013	4
2025	Michael Pittman Jr.	8-9	3873	25	111	80	784	7
		Average	3686	23	128	86	1074	6

NFL Draft Capital: Most of these players are first-, second-, or third-round picks in the NFL Draft (makes sense). Talented players get drafted higher. The exceptions, Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs, had already proven they could produce elite fantasy seasons before. Thielen was entering Year 10 at 33 years old on a Panthers team that had a receiving room that would rival the 2026 Miami Dolphins (it was very bad). Thielen had already posted multiple 1,000-yard seasons and several double-digit TD campaigns before landing in Carolina.  His former teammate in Minnesota, Stefon Diggs, was even more successful before resurfacing as a value in 2025, posting seven 1,000-yard seasons out of his last eight.

Team Record: In an ideal world, I would bet on the better team because there is more opportunity for TDs, but there is little correlation. These breakouts came from 14-win teams and two-win teams alike.

Team Passing Yardage and TDs: Surprisingly, these receivers did not need elite passing offenses. Their teams averaged roughly league-average passing production (3,686 yards and 23 passing TDs). Old man Thielen was the lone exception, succeeding on a Panthers offense that barely cracked 2,700 passing yards because he had virtually no competition for targets.

Individual Stats

*It is possible with less than 1,000 receiving yards, but only one has done it recently. You would need a decent amount of TDs with a weak season from WRs to break into the top 24 (AKA 2025 Michael Pittman Jr.) if you are not going to have 1,000 receiving yards.

If you drafted a WR55 who finished as WR24, that is still a huge win, and you should celebrate. Maybe it is not a home run, but you are rounding second base.

ADPs will continue to move throughout August, so in a few cases I am including multiple receivers where the market is still deciding who each team’s WR1 will be.

-Drum roll-

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The receivers going as the last five team WR1s in 2026:

Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

DK Metcalf: Metcalf is coming off one of his worst seasons, the Steelers have the second-hardest strength of schedule for WRs, and the aforementioned Pittman is now a Pittsburgh Steeler. That’s not great news. If there is any shining light on his situation, it is that the coaching staff has changed. The coach who won Super Bowl 31 with Aaron Rodgers, Mike McCarthy, is now the new head coach of the Steelers. They have also added first-time NFL offensive coordinator Brian Angelichio. The new coaching staff has already discussed giving Metcalf more layups and other early involvement to get him going. After going back and watching the tape, I do not think Metcalf was washed, and he looked explosive on quick, short-area targets. His ADP is WR34, which is lower than he has ever finished.

Alec Pierce: Pierce is my favorite bet to become this year’s discount WR1. He got paid in the offseason; there are 111 targets missing with Michael Pittman’s departure, and Daniel Jones is practicing in full and is expected to start in Week 1. Even if Danny Dimes did not suit up, Pierce ended 2025 strong. In his final four games, we saw Pierce finish as the WR4 with 44-year-old Philip Rivers, and he was the WR1 with rookie Riley Leonard under center during his first NFL start. The biggest hurdle is staying off the PUP and earning more targets.

KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston: This is where an unsettled WR room creates opportunity. I listed both WRs because there could be a change in ADP as the month goes on, and quite frankly, I am okay taking a shot on either guy. In Concepcion’s case, it is rare you can draft a first-round WR this late. Or, as Jason would say, a player who was “drafted to be great.” We have seen both outcomes recently. Brian Thomas Jr. (WR46 by ADP in 2024) was a smashing success, while Xavier Legette (WR62 by ADP in 2024) was not. Rookie WR Denzel Boston has had a great training camp, and who doesn’t love taking a chance on a big X receiver drafted in the second round? (It did NOT work out for last year’s early second-round pick and exact same-size receiver Jayden Higgins.)

Denzel Boston Is Looking Like the NFL’s BEST Rookie WR in Training Camp So Far…😳 pic.twitter.com/s4qa5SwUlj

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— Football Performances (@NFLPerformances) August 1, 2026

Jalen Nailor and Tre Tucker: Pick your poison. Through a collective seven years between the two WRs, the highest fantasy finish we have seen in a given season is WR37, and that was last year with Tre Tucker. Remember Tucker’s 8/145/3 game? That ONE game accounted for 27% of his fantasy points. The WR1 position seems like it is up for grabs. Nailor is going earlier, albeit just barely, and they just paid him. Hopefully, preseason can help us make a better-informed decision.

Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Malik Washington: Same situation here. It’s… not great. Right now, Washington sits well ahead of all the other WRs on the Dolphins. Hopefully preseason gives us some clarity here too. You could make an argument for every receiver. I like Washington because he has shown some flashes and I liked his college tape a few years ago, but my confidence level is still at an all-time low for the Miami Dolphins. I originally had rookie WR Chris Bell on this list because they were close in ADP, but recent reports say he is a long way from returning. If you have an IR spot, I don’t mind drafting him with your final pick in hopes of a return later in the season. After those two, it is a crapshoot.

We spend so much time looking for reasons not to draft these players that we sometimes miss what is sitting in front of us. If you are staring at a receiver, wondering if they have league-winning upside, here is the checklist I would run through before clicking draft.

Late-Round WR1 Checklist

• Team’s first WR off the board
• Path to 100+ targets
• Team projects for around league-average passing volume
• Former first, second, or third round draft pick OR proven NFL producer
• Ambiguous target competition
• Cheap enough that failure doesn’t hurt

These WR1s will not hit every year; just look at 2020 when zero did. However, if history repeats itself, one or two of these players will help win fantasy leagues.