2026 Risk Baked Into ADP: QBs (Fantasy Football)
Welcome back to the 2026 edition of the Risk Bakery. We already covered the RBs, and now it is time to look at the most important position in football: QBs.
QB risk comes in many forms. It can be an aging pocket passer coming off an unsustainable season, a young player changing systems, a veteran changing teams, or even a starter who might not actually be the starter. All of those concerns are valid. But in a one-QB fantasy league, the cost of being wrong becomes much smaller once these players fall into the later rounds.
We saw that perfectly last season. Matthew Stafford and Trevor Lawrence both appeared in this series as late-round options. Their risk was well-baked into their ADP. Stafford was the QB22 and finished as the QB2, and Lawrence was the QB19 and finished as the QB4. Now they are both back in the bakery because apparently one elite season was not enough to convince fantasy managers.
That does not mean every late-round QB is a value. It means we should look for players whose potential reward is much greater than what we are risking at their current price. And of course, do not forget to check out the Fantasy Footballers UDK+, complete with rankings, projections, and a Risk Meter for every player. The oven is ready. Let’s see what’s cooking.
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Trevor Lawrence – Jacksonville Jaguars
ADP
Overall
2025 Finish
QB10
82
QB4
Trevor Lawrence is back in the Risk Bakery. Last year, he entered as the QB19 and walked out as the QB4. Apparently, leading all QBs in both total fantasy points and fantasy points per game during the second half of the season was still not enough to convince everyone.
To be fair, there are legitimate reasons to expect regression. Lawrence scored nine rushing TDs last season after never scoring more than five in any previous year. Those nine scores represent almost 40% of his career rushing TDs, so projecting another nine would be irresponsible. He also completed only 60.9% of his passes, threw 12 INTs, and had five finishes outside the top 12 during his first seven games. The full season was much less consistent than the final numbers suggest.
His second-half explosion was also helped by a ridiculous 44.3-point performance against the Jets, when he threw five TDs and added another one on the ground. But that game did not create the breakout. Lawrence was already the QB6 from Weeks 10 through 14, and over his final seven games he averaged 265 passing yards, 2.6 passing TDs, and 26.6 fantasy points. Liam Coen unlocked something real in this offense.
There is still room for Lawrence to improve as a passer, too. Jacksonville tied for the highest drop rate in the league, leaving nearly 400 potential passing yards on the field. Brian Thomas Jr. is coming off a disappointing season, Travis Hunter was slowed by injury, and the target hierarchy behind them remains unclear. That uncertainty creates risk, but it also gives this passing game plenty of room to grow in Year 2 under Coen.
Lawrence will probably lose some rushing TDs. His second-half pace will probably come back to earth. He does not need to repeat either one to beat a QB10 price. He only needs the offense Coen unlocked to keep functioning.
Lawrence is my favorite late-round QB in 2026. His floor is a back-end QB1, while the player who led the position during the second half of last season has a very real top-five ceiling. If his ADP rises inside the top eight at the position, we may need to revisit how much of the risk is still discounted. For now, at QB10, it is more than baked into the price.
2025 Trevor Lawrence. pic.twitter.com/qpkcclgECb
— Football Performances (@NFLPerformances) August 2, 2026
Jaxson Dart – New York Giants
ADP
Overall
2025 Finish
QB11
89
QB14
Jaxson Dart is one of the most expensive QBs on this list, and probably the one with the most difficult risk to evaluate. He finished as the QB16 despite starting only 12 games, but a big part of his fantasy production came from playing like a dude who did not fully understand that defenders were allowed to hit him. Dart rushed for 487 yards and nine TDs, went through multiple concussion evaluations, and now has a new coaching staff openly asking him to make smarter decisions when he scrambles. That is good for his health, but potentially bad for fantasy.
There are also questions around his two best weapons. Malik Nabers tore his ACL during Dart’s first start and still does not have a clear return date. RB Cam Skattebo missed a large part of the second half of the season. On top of that, Brian Daboll is gone, and Dart now has to learn a new offense under John Harbaugh and Matt Nagy. Add some obvious rushing TD regression, and there are plenty of reasons to hesitate before drafting him as a QB1.
But here is the important part: Dart already produced like one without those weapons. He averaged more than 20 fantasy points per start, finished inside the top 10 in seven of his 12 starts, and delivered eight top-12 performances. Almost all of that happened after Nabers was lost for the season, while Skattebo was also unavailable for much of the stretch run. Dart did not need a perfect environment to create fantasy points because his legs consistently raised both his floor and ceiling.
At QB9, we are not getting a massive discount, but we are still drafting him close to his floor. If Nabers and Skattebo return healthy and Dart retains most of his rushing production, his ceiling is not QB9 – it is inside the top five. The new staff may ask him to protect himself, but nobody is turning a player with 487 rushing yards and nine rushing TDs into a pocket statue. The risk is real, but at his current price, it is baked in.
Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images
Matthew Stafford – Los Angeles Rams
ADP
Overall
2025 Finish
QB15
105
QB3
Matthew Stafford won the MVP, threw 46 TD passes, finished as the QB3, and is now being drafted outside the top 12. Fantasy managers have apparently decided that 38 is not an age. It is a warning label.
The concerns are easy to understand. Stafford provided one rushing yard all season, so every fantasy point has to come through the air. His 46 TDs were a career high, as was his 7.7% TD rate. That number is also far above his career rate of 4.8%, making regression almost inevitable. He is entering his 18th season, and we do not have to look very hard to find reasons why last year could have been the final great season of his career.
But there is a big difference between expecting regression and expecting a collapse. Stafford could lose 10 or even 12 passing TDs and still comfortably outperform QB15. He attempted 597 passes with a 9.5-yard average depth of target, third best in the league. That production came from an aggressive passing offense designed by Sean McVay, not from a few lucky broken plays. Some consider him an inconsistent fantasy starter, but if you look at the Fantasy Footballers’ Consistency Chart, you will find out that he was the second-most consistent QB in 2025, with only one bust game and nine weeks inside the top six.
The environment has not changed. Stafford still has Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, and one of the best offensive play-callers in football. The Rams led the league in points per drive, TD rate per drive, and percentage of possessions that reached the red zone. Even with obvious TD regression, this should remain one of the best scoring environments in football.
Nobody should project another 46 TDs. Fortunately, his ADP does not require anything close to that. We are getting the reigning MVP in one of the league’s best offenses in the ninth round. Age and regression are serious risks, but at QB15, the market has already done more than enough baking.
Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Kyler Murray – Minnesota Vikings
ADP
Overall
2025 Finish
QB17
125
QB38
Few players carry more narrative baggage than Kyler Murray. He has not become the superstar many expected after the electric start to his career. A foot injury limited him to five games last season, and now he is changing teams for the first time. He also does not technically have the starting job. Murray continues to split first-team reps with J.J. McCarthy, so there is a real possibility that fantasy managers draft a QB who eventually ends up on the bench.
That is a lot of risk and uncertainty. It is also why a QB who had never finished below QB12 in fantasy points per game before last season is now available as the QB17. Having said that, ff Murray wins the job, it is difficult to imagine a better landing spot. Kevin O’Connell helped Kirk Cousins throw for 4,547 yards in 2022 and produce 18 TDs in only eight games the following season. Then he helped Sam Darnold reach 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns in 2024. Murray now gets Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings, and T.J. Hockenson, probably the best group of weapons he has ever had.
He also brings a fantasy element none of O’Connell’s previous QBs had. Murray has averaged at least 30 rushing yards per game in every season of his career, and before 2025 he had never finished lower than QB12 on a per-game basis. Even a diminished version of his old rushing ability creates a floor that most QBs drafted in this range cannot match.
Right now, the videos coming from training camp show an amazing chemistry between Kyler Murray and Justin Jefferson. But that does not mean the competition with McCarthy should be dismissed. That competition is actually the main reason Murray is in Minnesota. But at QB17, we are not paying for the player fantasy managers hoped he would become in 2020. We are paying for a late-round QB who still has elite mobility and now plays inside an offense that has repeatedly elevated its starter. If he wins the job and is merely a functional version of himself, he can beat this price. If O’Connell helps revive him the way he did Darnold, Murray has legitimate QB1 upside. The risk of eventually losing the QB competition is already baked into the cost.
Tyler Shough – New Orleans Saints
ADP
Overall
2025 Finish
QB21
139
QB26
Tyler Shough is exactly the kind of late-round QB fantasy managers love to explain away. He started only nine games. His best performances came late in the season. The schedule was friendly. He threw only 10 TD passes on 327 attempts, and one explosive finish does not guarantee a second-year breakout. Maybe it was just a fun December run from an older rookie playing without any pressure.
But Shough did much more than survive. He completed 67.6% of his passes for 2,384 yards, produced a 91.3 passer rating, and went 5-4 as the starter. He led all rookie QBs in passing yards per game, completion percentage, passer rating, and wins. He also finished the season playing his best football, helping New Orleans win four of its final five games and delivering 333 passing yards and two TDs in Week 17.
The lack of passing TD is actually part of the appeal. A 3.06% passing TD rate is not an inflated number we should expect to crash; it is an obvious place for improvement. Shough also added 186 rushing yards and three scores, giving him just enough mobility to avoid being completely dependent on passing volume.
New Orleans has since given him more help. Chris Olave is coming off a 100-catch, 1,163-yard season, and the Saints added first-round WR Jordyn Tyson and veteran RB Travis Etienne. Shough now enters his second year in Kellen Moore’s offense with a better supporting cast and no competition for the starting job.
Perhaps his strong finish was helped by the schedule. Perhaps he is simply a competent NFL starter rather than the next great breakout QB. At QB21, who cares? Shough is essentially free in one-QB leagues, and the cost of finding out is minimal. His rookie season finish already showed enough to make the risk fully baked into his ADP.