2026 NFL Draft Betting Guide: Betz’s Final Mock (Fantasy Football)
The 2026 NFL Draft is just a couple of days away! The first round kicks off on Thursday, April 23, and things are starting to crystallize in terms of what Round 1 might look like after the first 32 names are called. Because betting on the NFL Draft is an information-based market, it can be extremely valuable to source Big Boards and mock drafts from the top NFL Draft scouts and companies around the industry. While that is one piece of the equation, the betting market can also be an indicator of the top 32 picks each year, so I do use it as part of my process.
In this mock draft, I used betting odds from various sportsbooks as well as information from around the league to try to figure out what the first round might look like on Thursday night. If you are interested in our process and official plays, be sure to check out our 2026 NFL Draft Props article and listen to The Fantasy Footballers DFS and Betting Podcast, which is out every Friday. Without further ado, here is my lone mock for 2026.
*Odds accurate at time of publishing*
1. Las Vegas Raiders – QB Fernando Mendoza
Betting Market: Number 1 Overall Pick: Mendoza (-20000)
Analysis: This pick has been locked in for a couple of months now as the Raiders are set to take their QB of the future.
2. New York Jets – EDGE Arvell Reese
Betting Market: Reese to be Second Overall Pick (-105)
Analysis: The market has flip-flopped back and forth between Reese and David Bailey in recent weeks, and even leading up to draft night, there are analysts who are split on the Jets’ decision #2 overall. For me, I’m siding with the player who has more theoretical upside for a Jets defense desperate for playmakers.
3. Arizona Cardinals – OT Francis Mauigoa
Betting Market: First Offensive Linemen: Francis Mauigoa (-190)
Analysis: Everyone knows the Cardinals would like to trade down, but for the sake of simplicity, I’m keeping Arizona at #3 and giving them an OT in Francis Mauignoa. Based on Kyle’s database, Mauigoa had a top-30 visit with the Cardinals, notable as he has not met with many other teams inside the top 10. Arizona is clearly trying to figure out their QB position in the next year+ (Ty Simpson?), so they need to ensure they have their OL in place in order to drop a rookie into that system, especially at RT. Jeremiyah Love is gaining a ton of steam, but I’m not buying it, given the state of the team and Monti Ossenfort’s tendencies as a GM.
Cardinals GM Monti Ossenfort has only drafted premium positions in Round 1-2 as a GM or Director of Player Personnel since 2020:
OT, CB, CB, OT, WR, CB, OT, EDGE, WR, EDGE, CB, DT, CB
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) April 21, 2026
4. Tennessee Titans – EDGE David Bailey
Betting Market: Bailey to be the Fourth Pick (+410), Bailey to be a top-5 pick (-2000)
Analysis: Love has been penciled in for me at this pick for a while, but if David Bailey does fall to four, I don’t think Robert Saleh can help himself. They spent resources on the defensive line in free agency and via trades, but Saleh has always liked a stable of pass rushers. Bailey would add another weapon to Saleh’s defense.
5. New York Giants – RB Jeremiyah Love
Betting Market: Jeremiyah Love Draft Position O/U 4.5
Analysis: The Giants now have two picks inside the top 10 after their trade with the Bengals. It remains to be seen how they plan to attack the top 10. They have done work on the WRs, some linemen, and, of course, they’re in the Caleb Downs/Sonny Styles market. In this exercise, with Love falling into their lap, they snag the RB1 in this class, who is widely considered a top-3 talent regardless of position. There was a ton of smoke on the Giants being connected to the top free agent backs (Walker, Etienne), so it is realistic to think that they’re in on Love if he falls.
6. Cleveland Browns – OT Spencer Fano
Betting Market: Spencer Fano Draft Position O/U: 9.5
Analysis: The thought process with the Browns all along has been a WR and an OT with their first two picks (6 and 24), as the vast majority of their top-30 visits have been with these two positions. The tricky part is trying to figure out which position they attack first. Most analysts suggest we could see a run on offensive linemen in the teens, so if the Browns want to ensure they get a tackle, they may need to pull the trigger sooner rather than later. They are also rumored to move back in Round 1, but for this exercise, I am not including many trades, so they stick and pick the OT out of Utah.
7. Washington Commanders – LB Sonny Styles
Betting Market: Sonny Styles Draft Position O/U: 5.5
Analysis: This would be a dream scenario for Dan Quinn after his defense has been among the worst in football over the last two seasons. Styles could very well be long gone before this pick (Titans, Giants), but if he falls to seven, I do expect him to be the pick. His perfect 10/10 RAS score fits the drafting tendencies of GM Adam Peters, who has prioritized top athletes in his drafts. Styles was also part of the Top Golf crew this year, so he is obviously on the short list.
8. New Orleans Saints – WR Jordyn Tyson
Betting Market: Tyson to be a top-10 pick (-320)
Analysis: The late steam on Tyson is out of control at this point, but all signs point to Tyson being taken in the top 10 Thursday night, with the betting markets suggesting Tyson is now very likely to go inside the top 10. Reportedly, the Saints have cleared Tyson on his medicals, and if they want to find out if Tyler Shough can be the guy in the long term, they have to find a second playmaker across from Chris Olave.
9. Kansas City Chiefs – WR Carnell Tate
Betting Market: Carnell Tate Draft Position OU: 7.5
Analysis: KC is a bit of a wild card with this pick. They have been linked to Spencer Fano and CB Mansoor Delane, while EDGE Rueben Bain Jr. makes a lot of sense as well. That said, Rashee Rice is in a contract year and has plenty of off-the-field issues, Xavier Worthy hasn’t really stepped up, and Travis Kelce is likely done after this season. The Chiefs have met with both Tate and Makai Lemon, so they are definitely interested in the top WRs in this year’s class.
10. New York Giants – S Caleb Downs
Betting Market: Caleb Downs Draft Position O/U: 9.5
Analysis: ESPN’s Jordan Raanan has Downs as one of the Giants’ top targets. That’s not necessarily new news, as they’ve been heavily linked to the Ohio State defenders throughout the spring. I could easily see Downs going to the Giants at fifth overall, but in this exercise, they get to have their cake and eat it too, getting one of the best players in this draft on each side of the ball.
11. Miami Dolphins – CB Mansoor Delane
Betting Market: Mansoor Delane Draft Position O/U: 9.5
Analysis: The Dolphins are another team that’s tricky to peg down for draft night, given that they have holes all over the roster. This new staff comes from Green Bay, and historically, the Packers are a team that drafts highly athletic players based on their pre-draft testing. Delane tested extremely well (4.38 in the 40), and new HC Jeff Hafley has a defensive backs background. Furthermore, new GM Jon-Eric Sullivan said earlier this off-season that “The whole back end is competing for their jobs.” Delane is clearly CB1 in this class, given the knee injury concerns with Jermod McCoy.
12. Dallas Cowboys – EDGE Rueben Bain Jr.
Betting Market: Rueben Bain Draft Position O/U: 9.5
Analysis: The Cowboys have been heavily linked to the Ohio State defenders, but in this exercise, I am not really projecting many trades. I doubt Downs or Styles make it to 12, so if they want one of those two, they are likely trading up. It’s no secret that the Cowboys need to upgrade their defense. With Bain slipping outside the top 10, Dallas is right here to scoop up the value and get one of the better edge rushers in the class.
13. Los Angeles Rams – WR Makai Lemon
Betting Market: Makai Lemon O/U: 15.5
Analysis: This is the chalk pick for the Rams, so I hate to follow the crowd here, but Lemon’s game is a great fit for Sean McVay’s offense, and this team is pushing all of their chips in for the 2026 season as they try to win another Super Bowl with Matthew Stafford. They know their window is closing, so I see them adding an impact player on offense (perhaps OL if not WR?) after they sent their second first-round pick to the Chiefs for CB Trent McDuffie.
14. Baltimore Ravens – OL Vega Ioane
Betting Market: Vega Ioane Draft Position O/U: 13.5
Analysis: The Ravens do a great job year over year in the draft of just hanging around, letting the board fall, and then taking the best player available while scooping up value. They desperately need to upgrade their OL after losing Tyler Linderbaum in free agency, and Vega is easily the cleanest interior offensive lineman in the draft.
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – EDGE Ahkeem Mesidor
Betting Market: Position of Bucs’ First Draft Pick: Defensive Line/EDGE (+100)
Analysis: The Bucs are a tricky team. This could be an offensive lineman, an edge rusher, or a corner. Mesidor has a wide range of outcomes given his age and injury history, but this is a win-now team in a weak NFC South. They could take on some risk while going for another division title and giving Todd Bowles’ defense another option. This is a common pairing with Kenyon Sadiq in mocks, and while that could be the pick, they did just re-sign Cade Otton in free agency, and they’re doing a lot of homework on TEs that are projected to be Day 2 or Day 3 selections.
16. New York Jets – CB Chris Johnson
Betting Market: Chris Johnson to be a First-Round Pick (-230)
Analysis: The chalk pick here is WR Omar Cooper Jr., and while I could see him being the pick or one of the ‘Big 3’ if they slide, corner is also a sneaky need for this team. Chris Johnson has been a riser late in the process, and he has met with New York. Perhaps they can get him in early Round 2 or trade back and select him, but for this exercise, I have them getting their guy despite it being earlier than consensus.
17. Detroit Lions – OL Kadyn Proctor
Betting Market: Position of Lions First Pick: Offensive Line (-210)
Analysis: Daniel Jeremiah has noted that Proctor is unlikely to fall past Detroit at 17. They have a massive need along the offensive line, and he’s 19th in the Consensus Big Board, so this is right about his range. However, if there is a run on OL early in this draft, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Proctor go a bit earlier than this.
18. Minnesota Vikings – TE Kenyon Sadiq
Betting Market: Kenyon Sadiq Draft Position O/U: 15.5
Analysis: The market is almost like 90+% confident that this pick will be S Dillon Thieneman, and while that obviously does make sense, any time the market is this confident in a player-team match in the late teens, I do start to question it. For my mock, I’m going in a different direction with the Vikings taking the Oregon TE. He only officially had top-30 visits with the Chiefs, Eagles, Browns, and…Vikings. With Kwesi gone, we’re in a very unique situation with Minnesota in 2026. T.J. Hockenson agreed to a restructured deal to stick around this season, but he only has void years remaining in 2027 and 2028. In other words, he is unlikely to be a Viking after this season.
19. Carolina Panthers – WR KC Concepcion
Betting Market: KC Concepcion Draft Position O/U: 24.5
Analysis: The Panthers are a potential fit for Dillon Thieneman, or perhaps they go offensive line, but this is an offense that is still trying to find playmakers to complement last year’s first rounder, Tetairoa McMillan. Cameron Wolfe highlights potential options for the Panthers at the WR position here:
Panthers strong free agency puts them in position to select BPA. GM Dan Morgan doesn’t rule out taking a 1st round pass catcher for 3rd straight year.
A look at #Panthers draft options at that spot for a team on the brink of contention: pic.twitter.com/F3Jj7iJlJd
— Cameron Wolfe (@CameronWolfe) April 15, 2026
20. Dallas Cowboys – S Dillon Thieneman
Betting Market: Dillon Thieneman Draft Position O/U: 18.5
Analysis: This is a nice situation for the Cowboys; they get to address their D Line while also improving their secondary. Thieneman is the chalk pick for the Vikings, but if they pass and he gets by Carolina, Dallas could easily scoop him up. Early in the process, he even got some buzz to be the 12th pick, but this is more in line with his Big Board Ranking and his expected draft position.
21. Pittsburgh Steelers – OT Monroe Freeling
Betting Market: Monroe Freeling Draft Position O/U 17.5
Analysis: This could very well be a WR or a Sadiq landing spot, but with the news of Broderick Jones’ injury concerns, the Steelers could look to move up into the teens in order to secure one of the top offensive linemen in this class. In the betting world, Pittsburgh is -120 to select an offensive lineman with their first pick.
22. Los Angeles Chargers – EDGE Malachi Lawrence
Betting Market: Malachi Lawrence to be a First-Round Pick (-195)
Analysis: LA lost Odafe Oweh in free agency, and Khalil Mack is leaving his prime. They need some help on the edge, and Lawrence has been a riser late in the process. In the betting markets, LAC is -125 to take an EDGE rusher with their first pick.
23. Philadelphia Eagles – OT Max Iheanachor
Betting Market: Position of Eagles’ First Pick: Offensive Line (-210)
Analysis: With A.J. Brown very likely headed to New England, it’s possible the Eagles take a WR early in the draft, but Howie loves to invest in the trenches before it’s a problem. Lane Johnson isn’t getting any younger, and Landon Dickerson retirement rumors were swirling, given how beaten up he’s been over the last couple of seasons, in particular 2025.
24. Cleveland Browns – WR Denzel Boston
Betting Market: Denzel Boston Draft Position O/U: 28.5
Analysis: The Browns got their offensive lineman early in the draft, and now they get to address their WR room with Washington’s Denzel Boston. Cleveland has met with essentially all the top WR prospects, so it’s very obvious they are targeting this position early in this draft.
25. Chicago Bears – EDGE Keldric Faulk
Betting Market: Keldric Faulk Draft Position O/U: 22.5
Analysis: The Bears have been heavily linked to the safety position and the edge rushers. I also wouldn’t rule out offensive line here, but Faulk is the highest-rated edge rusher left on the board and fills a major need for a Bears team looking for an edge rusher opposite Montez Sweat.
26. Buffalo Bills – DT Peter Woods
Betting Market: Position of Eagles’ First Pick: Defensive Line/Edge (+110)
Analysis: The Bills’ rush defense was non-existent last season. Woods would fill a need along the defensive line and potentially provide a boost in rush defense. Linebacker is also a sneaky pick here.
27. San Francisco 49ers – WR Omar Cooper Jr.
Betting Market: Omar Cooper Draft Position O/U: 21.5
Analysis: I love the fit with Cooper in Kyle Shanahan’s offense. His schemes are always focused on the ability to create after the catch, and that’s Cooper’s game. Mike Evans‘ contract is really a year-to-year situation, while Brandon Aiyuk won’t be a 49er ever again. Of the first round wideouts, SF had official top-30 visits with Cooper Jr. and KC Concepcion.
28. Houston Texans – OT Blake Miller
Betting Market: Position of Texans’ First Pick: Offensive Line (-155)
Analysis: A couple of weeks ago, Peter Schrager noted that he would be “shocked” if the Texans don’t address offensive line in this draft. The line has been a work in progress for years, and that continues in 2026. I also wouldn’t be surprised if this is an interior defensive lineman.
29. Kansas City Chiefs – CB Jermod McCoy
Betting Market: Jermod McCoy Draft Position O/U: 28.5
Analysis: I have no idea if the Chiefs have cleared McCoy on his medicals, but perhaps they take on some risk here for a player who’s got the talent to be a top-10 player in this draft if he were healthy. The Chiefs need to find some replacements in the secondary after they sent Trent McDuffie to LA via trade.
30. Miami Dolphins – OT Caleb Lomu
Betting Market: Caleb Lomu to be a 1st Round Pick (-390)
Analysis: The Dolphins have done their homework on the offensive linemen in this class, and they are a common pairing with Spencer Fano. Obviously with this exercise, Fano is long gone, so they grab his teammate from Utah in Caleb Lomu. Per Rapsheet, Lomu has met with the Eagles, Panthers, Texans, Bears, Browns, and Dolphins (among others), which are the teams picking in this range.
31. New England Patriots – EDGE T.J. Parker
Betting Market: Position of Patriots’ First Pick: Defensive Line/Edge (-110)
Analysis: The Patriots have done plenty of work on the offensive linemen in this class, and they have also spent time with edge rushers and WRs. Given that they are likely to acquire A.J. Brown, I’m leaning away from pass catcher with this pick. New England just lost K’Lavon Chaisson in free agency.
32. Arizona Cardinals (Via Trade) – QB Ty Simpson
Betting Market: Ty Simpson to be a First-Round pick (-290)
Analysis: The Cardinals have been linked to Ty Simpson throughout the process, yet the Jets are sitting right there and have also shown interest. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have been vocal about trying to trade back and get more picks, so this could be a natural trade partner if the Cardinals do want to leapfrog New York and/or secure Simpson’s fifth-year option.
Players Who Just Missed the Cut:
- S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren
- RB Jadarian Price
- CB Avieon Terrell
- CB Colton Hood
- EDGE Zion Young
- EDGE Cashius Howell