Week 6 BALLER Model: Best Bets to Cover the Spread (Fantasy Football)
This article series covers BALLER*, a machine-learning betting model that predicts which team will cover the spread in each NFL game.
Through five weeks, it has gone 19/41 (46.3%) on its selected ‘Best Picks’ (‘Best Picks’ are determined through a combination of model confidence and outside football intuition). The model looks to bounce back after two particularly bad weeks in a row.
This is not an official Fantasy Footballers betting model* but hopefully a useful tool to make your decisions for fantasy and leans on certain spreads and who could cover. For the full array of betting material, find season-long and weekly props in the DFS Pass and tune in every week to the DFS & Betting Podcast.
In this article, I will break down the model’s best picks for Week 6 (six games) — let’s dive in!
Week 6 BALLER’s Best Bets
Keep in mind a couple of key points with this model:
- This is the first week the model will not use data from last season to make predictions. We can expect the model to be more accurate moving forward.
- It focuses on the spread of the home team.
- It is applied primarily on which team can cover the spread, NOT “use this xSpread” the model spits out.
Washington Commanders (+2.5):
The Commanders have put up over 21 points per game to the Falcons 16, and head into Sunday as 2.5-point underdogs. BALLER projects them to be seven-point favorites, meaning we’ll pick them to cover.
New England Patriots (+3.0):
There is no question the Patriots’ offense has struggled the past two weeks, but against a Raiders team that averages less than one turnover and nearly 100 yards in penalties per game, they have a prime opportunity to turn the ship around and cover in Week 6.
Arizona Cardinals (+7.0):
The Cardinals come into this game as seven-point underdogs, despite the two teams averaging the same Expected Points Added (EPA) per game. Look for them to give the Rams some trouble and cover the spread.
New Orleans Saints (-1.5):
The Saints looked strong on all sides of the ball last week, shutting out the Patriots 34-0. If they can replicate their play against Houston, the -1.5-point spread should be easy for them to cover.
New York Jets (+7.0):
Coming off a big win against Denver, the Jets host the Eagles as seven-point underdogs in Week 6. The Jets were playing pass-first football up until last week, when they unleashed the power of Breece Hall, reaping great benefits for the offense. If they can continue this play against the Eagles they should be able to cover this large spread.
Los Angeles Chargers (+2.0):
The Cowboys’ miserable play in Week 5 leaves NFL fans wondering how strong the team truly is. Their average -10 EPA per game might give some insight as to what the analytics say. Look for the Chargers to cover this two-point spread.
As always, feel free to reach out on Twitter if you have any questions about the model!
Comments
Very funny
Come now @analytacist, hoping this model is locked in now. Need to scratch back some winnings after last week for sure. I really liked the picks last week, but ended 0-5…
Fading all these picks lol