The Path to a WR1 Season: Brian Thomas Jr. (Fantasy Football)
In 2024, all of us with Brian Thomas Jr. were skipping through the fields of flowers, thinking, “He’s doing this in his rookie year? EUREKA! I struck fantasy gold!” It was incredible. BTJ was drafted in the 10th round, and he finished as the WR4. He even won multiple Footie Awards that season, too (They are still in the mail).
Editor’s Note: This profile is part of our annual Path to a Fantasy WR1 Season series. For our methodology and an outline of the process, make sure you read the 2026 Path to WR1 Series Primer. Find out the full statistical projections for the Footballers Consensus WR1s in the Ultimate Draft Kit.
2025 Season Recap
Fast forward to 2025, BTJ was being drafted in the early second round of fantasy drafts, and that turned out to be one of the worst possible picks you could have made. His disappointing sophomore season was riddled with injuries, drops galore, and a Jacksonville Jaguars receiving room that took a step forward, even with Travis Hunter playing limited snaps.
Going into Year 3, not much has changed, but what can change for Brian Thomas Jr. to return to WR1 dominance with another season under Liam Coen? DUUUVAL!
Brian Thomas Jr. Career Stats:
| Year | GP | Rank | PTS | PPG | TGT | REC | YDS | TD |
| 2024 | 17 | 4 | 240.5 | 14.1 | 133 | 87 | 1282 | 10 |
| 2025 | 14 | 44 | 114.8 | 8.2 | 91 | 48 | 707 | 2 |
The Path in 2026
Since 2000, here is the list of first-round rookie WRs who had 1000+ receiving yards:
| Rank | Player | Yds | Rec | TD |
| 1 | Ja’Marr Chase | 1455 | 81 | 13 |
| 2 | Justin Jefferson | 1400 | 88 | 7 |
| 3 | Odell Beckham Jr. | 1305 | 91 | 12 |
| 4 | Brian Thomas | 1282 | 87 | 10 |
| 5 | Malik Nabers | 1204 | 109 | 7 |
| 6 | Michael Clayton | 1193 | 80 | 7 |
| 7 | Garrett Wilson | 1103 | 83 | 4 |
| 8 | Amari Cooper | 1070 | 72 | 6 |
| 9 | A.J. Green | 1057 | 65 | 7 |
| 10 | Mike Evans | 1051 | 68 | 12 |
| 11 | Chris Olave | 1042 | 72 | 4 |
| 12 | Jaylen Waddle | 1015 | 104 | 6 |
| 13 | Tetairoa McMillan | 1014 | 70 | 7 |
| 14 | Kelvin Benjamin | 1008 | 73 | 9 |
1,000 yards is not a magical number, but it does show that reaching this milestone is an exclusive club of mostly great players. BTJ wasn’t just on the list; he finished fourth. Brian Thomas Jr. had a rollercoaster of a second season, and that is exactly why he was a nominee for the Poopiest Pants Award. Chasing a WR1 finish is much easier than chasing THE WR1 overall, so let’s take a look at the WR12 benchmark and work from there.
| Year | Player | Receptions | Rec Yards | Rec TDs | PPR PPG | Fantasy Finish |
| 2025 | Jameson Williams | 65 | 1117 | 7 | 12.9 | WR12 |
| 2024 | Jerry Jeudy | 90 | 1229 | 4 | 14.2 | WR12 |
| 2023 | Nico Collins | 80 | 1297 | 8 | 17.4 | WR12 |
| 2022 | Christian Kirk | 84 | 1108 | 8 | 14.2 | WR12 |
| 2021 | Mike Williams | 76 | 1146 | 9 | 15.4 | WR12 |
| 2020 | AJ Brown | 70 | 1075 | 11 | 17.7 | WR12 |
| Average: | 77.5 | 1162 | 7.8 | 15.3 |
That average of 78 receptions for 1160 receiving yards and seven TDs is well within the range of what BTJ is capable of because… he has already done it. He just needs a few things to go his way.
Target Competition
Going into the 2025 season, we saw the Jaguars draft WR/DB Travis Hunter with the second-overall pick. Thinking he would play some offense and some defense, there wasn’t much competition still for BTJ. Turns out, we were wrong. Parker Washington emerged, Brenton Strange played well enough to garner a top 10 TE contract over the offseason, Jakobi Meyers arrived halfway through the season, and Travis Hunter was looking promising before injury.
In 2026, not much has changed… or has it? Sometimes, before the season, we overestimate our ability to accurately predict how the offense will flow, and before you know it, a player (or two) has clearly separated themselves from the rest. From time to time, there just might be a change in offensive philosophy, too.
Since 2022, the Jaguars have run 11 personnel above league average, according to Sumersports data. What if they move towards heavier personnel, as Jaguars GM James Gladstone somewhat alluded to? As the team’s best X receiver, that is potentially good news for Brian Thomas Jr.
James Gladstone explains the thought process behind the #Jaguars drafting Nate Boerkircher 56th overall. pic.twitter.com/D4a2sctyaO
— Action Sports Jax (@ActionSportsJax) April 25, 2026
Injuries
Cam Newton said it best: “If I’m thinking about a particular injury, then I’m already a step behind.” And my goodness, did Brian Thomas Jr. deal with a lot of injuries in 2025. He kicked off the season with a wrist injury in Week 1, then had a shoulder injury in Week 7, and an ankle injury in Week 9. I am not a doctor, nor am I a professional athlete, but as an athlete who tried to play through injuries, I was never quite myself, and I do not believe BTJ was either. I genuinely believe injuries were the biggest factor in his disappointing 2025 season.
Utilization and Dropped Balls
How Brian Thomas Jr. was utilized was yet another factor. The deeper the ball, the harder it is to catch. It is going to be harder to catch a pass if it’s contested, too. Part of that is on BTJ to get open, but part of it is on how he is being deployed on the field. Most of this is obvious, but it helps paint the picture once we get into those stats. According to PFF data, the most interesting story is the change in how Brian Thomas Jr. was used:
- Contested Catches: 32.9% of BTJ’s targets were contested catches, good enough for the fifth-highest in 2025. In 2024, BTJ’s contested catch rate was 12%.
- aDOT: Brian Thomas Jr. saw an aDOT of 14.8. In 2024, BTJ’s aDOT was at 11.9.
- Dropped Ball Percentage: Among players with 70+ targets, BTJ ranked fourth in dropped ball percentage with 14.3%. In 2024, BTJ’s drop ball percentage was 6.5%.
Drops are one of the noisiest stats and aren’t exactly sticky year to year. Historically, we have seen great receivers have seasons early in their career with a double-digit drop ball percentage. On average, over the past three seasons, half of the top 12 WRs had a double-digit drop ball percentage in one of their first three seasons.
| Year | Player | Drop % | Year of Career |
| 2025 | Puka Nacua | 11% | 1 |
| 2025 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 11% | 1 |
| 2025 | Ja’Marr Chase | 10% | 1 |
| 2025 | George Pickens | 13% | 3 |
| 2025 | Davante Adams | 17% | 2 |
| 2025 | Jameson Williams | 17% | 2 |
| 2025 | Courtland Sutton | 18% | 1 |
| 2024 | Ja’Marr Chase | 10% | 1 |
| 2024 | Brian Thomas Jr. | 14% | 2 |
| 2024 | Terry McLaurin | 11% | 1 |
| 2024 | Malik Nabers* | 10% | 2 |
| 2024 | CeeDee Lamb | 11% | 1 |
| 2024 | Mike Evans | 17% | 1 |
| 2023 | CeeDee Lamb | 11% | 1 |
| 2023 | Puka Nacua | 11% | 1 |
| 2023 | Mike Evans | 17% | 1 |
| 2023 | AJ Brown | 11% | 3 |
| 2023 | Deebo Samuel | 15% | 1 |
*Malik Nabers only had 35 targets
Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
Year 3 Breakouts
We have seen plenty of first-round WRs take their biggest leaps going into Year 3.
Since 2010, here is a list of the highest-scoring first-round WRs in PPR/PPG in Year 3.
| Rank | Player | PPR/PPG | Best Season? |
| 1 | Justin Jefferson | 21.69 | ✔ |
| 2 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 21.17 | ✔ |
| 3 | DeAndre Hopkins | 20.69 | ✖ |
| 4 | A.J. Green | 19.16 | ✔ |
| 5 | Mike Evans | 19.01 | ✔ |
| 6 | Calvin Ridley | 18.77 | ✔ |
| 7 | Dez Bryant | 18.73 | ✖ |
| 8 | Odell Beckham Jr. | 18.54 | ✖ |
| 9 | Demaryius Thomas | 18.21 | ✖ |
| 10 | CeeDee Lamb | 17.74 | ✖ |
For half of them, it was the best season of their career. That does not mean BTJ is going to magically have an awesome third season, but it gives optimism and shows that careers are not always linear.
Have a day, BTJ@Dream_Finders | #DUUUVAL https://t.co/SDSRkHiSwH pic.twitter.com/W5HsG3Z3Vn
— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) June 10, 2026
Final Thoughts
In situations in which there is a good team with ambiguity amongst the pass catchers, there is value to be had. I do not see a single player in the Jaguars’ receiving room with higher upside than Brian Thomas Jr. Remember: Last Season ≠ This Season. That is where plenty of fantasy managers tend to mess up.
I know we are talking about the Path to a WR1 finish, but Brian Thomas Jr. is just too good of a player and value to ignore. When using the ADP Comparison Tool in the UDK+, you will see BTJ has a much higher ADP on Underdog, where people are drafting Best Ball drafts using real money to take players with high upside. BTJ is going near the big three rookie WRs in Carnell Tate, Jordyn Tyson, and Makai Lemon in drafts. Seems an awful lot like the boat vs. the mystery box analogy we often bring up from Family Guy. The biggest predictor of future success is previous success, and BTJ has already shown that he can do it on the NFL field. Brian Thomas Jr. just needs to fix the drops, get healthy, and be the alpha WR that we know he is capable of being.