THE MEGALASHOW! Bold Predictions LIVE in LA
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Bold Predictions for the 2023 fantasy football season and lots more! It’s the MEGALASHOW! Andy, Mike, and Jason give spicy hot takes Live at the Palace Theatre in LA! Plus, player and musician comps, Mike’s Trey Lance trade reaction, Josh Jacobs returns, and Live Mailbag! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. — Fantasy Football Podcast for August 28th, 2023.
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- The Fantasy Footballers are live in Los Angeles for the MEGALASHOW.
- The audience applauds and there’s upbeat music playing.
“Welcome to the MEGALASHOW! Bold Predictions LIVE in LA!” 00:00
Opening Remarks and Audience Interaction 00:40
- The hosts interact with the audience, with Jason joking about someone having something planned.
- They use a T-shirt cannon and interact with the audience, asking them who wants the T-shirt.
- They joke about the cost of the T-shirt cannon.
Thanking the Fans and St. Jude 04:47
- The hosts express gratitude to the audience for their support.
- They mention raising $250,000 for St. Jude over the past seven years.
Player Comparison – Gabe Davis 07:36
- They do a player comparison for Gabe Davis and compare him to a band.
Player Comparison – Antonio Gibson 10:09
- They compare Antonio Gibson to a punk rock band.
Player Comparison – Geno Smith 12:39
- Geno Smith is compared to a famous pop star.
Trey Lance Trade Reaction 15:08
- Discussion about Trey Lance‘s trade to the Cowboys for a third-round pick.
- Jerry Jones’s comments about Trey Lance not playing a significant role and not counting on him for help.
- Trey Lance‘s situation in San Francisco would have been better with more playing time.
“Poor guy, if you’re in Dynasty, it’s over.” 17:34
Holding or Trading Trey Lance 17:42
- Uncertainty about whether to hold or trade Trey Lance in dynasty leagues.
- Some suggestions to trade him for a lower pick or move on from him.
- No consensus on the best course of action.
“The honest truth is I have no freaking idea.” 18:44
Salty Reactions on Twitter 19:10
- Mention of the divided reactions on Twitter regarding Trey Lance‘s trade.
- Some people acknowledging that Andy and Mike’s prediction was almost right about the third-round pick.
- Salty debates between supporters and detractors.
“Andy and I were totally right because there were rumors of offers but they were all sixth.” 20:13
Trades and Injuries 20:25
- Dallas offers a conditional fifth-round pick for a fourth-round pick, which was better than other offers.
“Round picks conditionally a fifth that. Dallas came in to win the day by offering a fourth which was better than what everyone was offering.” 20:25
- There is talk about the value of day two picks compared to day three picks in regards to running backs.
“We talk a lot about the difference between a day two pick and a day three pick for running backs.” 20:44
- Jerry Judy suffers a multi-week hamstring injury, which poses a significant risk of re-injury when he returns.
“The actionable advice is that this sucks. It’s really bad to get a multi-week hamstring injury right at the beginning of the year because he’s gonna be doing everything he can he’s gonna force his way back to the field.” 21:53
Jerry Jeudy‘s Injury 21:01
- Jerry Judy’s hamstring injury potentially affects his performance for the whole season, but he could have a good second half.
“I think Jerry Judy can have a really good second half of the season, but I don’t want to pay the price to get there. I’ll pick him up on waivers.” 22:42
- Without Jerry Judy and Tim Patrick, the Broncos’ wide receiver situation is uncertain.
Josh Jacobs Returns 23:45
- Josh Jacobs ends his holdout and returns to the Raiders, making him a valuable fantasy football asset.
- Josh Jacobs is expected to have the same workload as last year and should be a phenomenal value in the second round of drafts.
“He’s on a one-year contract where they’re gonna give him the same workload. I don’t think he’s gonna rush for 1800 yards and be some unbelievable monster, but he’s gonna touch the ball 350 times.” 24:47
Bold prediction for the New York Jets winning the Super Bowl 28:48
- The New York Jets, historically a struggling team, are predicted to win the Super Bowl in 2023.
- Despite not having a winning record in over a decade and having only one head coach with a winning record in their 64-year history, the Jets are expected to have a major turnaround.
“But the New York Jets are going to win the Super Bowl. They’re gonna win it all.”
Increased Passing Volume 36:25
- Teams increased their passing volume and attempted almost two more passes per game on average 36:30.
- Seattle Seahawks increased their pass attempts from 29 to almost 34 per game, a significant increase 36:51.
- The average increase in pass attempts per year is around 50 39:16.
“We’re all too far down on the Atlanta situation and what we’re too cemented in to the idea that well they’re just a run-first team. What if they throw it a little bit more?”
Rookie Wide Receivers’ Performance 37:48
- Drake London saw 117 targets, converting them into 866 receiving yards, which is historically good 37:48.
- Since 2014, 11 rookie wide receivers have achieved 50 receptions and the yards per route run that Drake London had 37:50.
- Eight out of the 11 wide receivers who achieved this went on to become top 12 wide receivers the following year 38:21.
- The three that did not make it into the top 12 were still very good wide receivers, but faced some challenges such as injuries or low touchdown numbers 38:30.
Travis Etienne‘s Performance and Inefficiencies 44:46
- Travis Etienne‘s usage in 2022 was in a committee.
- He struggled to break tackles and had a low rate of successful runs.
- Etienne was inefficient near the goal line with only three rushing touchdowns on 14 carries inside the five-yard line.
- His competition on the depth chart was not formidable.
“Despite his explosive plays, Etienne struggled to break tackles and was inefficient near the goal line.”
Introduction of Tank Bigsby and Committee Approach 45:31
- Tank Bixby is a talented player who will be involved in the offense.
- The team is likely to run a committee approach, with both Etienne and Bixby getting opportunities.
- Etienne will still receive goal line opportunities and work in the passing game, but Bixby will also have a significant role.
“Tank Bixby is a talented player who will be involved in the offense, and both Etienne and Bixby will get opportunities in a committee approach.”
Tank Bigsby‘s Potential and Value 47:02
- Tank Bixby is projected to be a top 20 running back.
- He will have enough usage, talent, and opportunities to make an impact.
- Bixby can be acquired as the 44th running back, making him a valuable draft pick.
“Tank Bixby is projected to be a top 20 running back and provides great value as the RB44.”
Comparison to Past Rookie Running Back Performances 47:06
- Historically, multiple rookie running backs have finished in the top 24 each season.
- In some years, there have been as many as five rookie running backs in the top 24.
- Tank Bixby has the potential to join this group of impactful rookie running backs.
“Historically, multiple rookie running backs have finished in the top 24, and Tank Bixby has the potential to be one of them.”
Ja’Marr Chase‘s impressive stats 52:34
- Jamar Chase is currently leading in targets.
- He is on pace for a touchdown every 11.9 targets, which is a very impressive rate.
- In the last two years, he has scored 22 touchdowns.
“Jamar Chase literally, he’s on pace for a touchdown every 11.9 targets and that’s 15 every 180.”
Ja’Marr Chase and his college teammates 53:01
- Jamar Chase’s former college teammates from Ole Miss are mentioned.
- When a player has been an alpha in year four with over eight targets in a game, they have a high chance of maintaining that performance.
- If a player maintains that performance in year five and has a height of over six foot one, they have a path to scoring 15 touchdowns in a season.
- Jamar Chase is in a good position to reach this milestone based on his previous performance.
“When you were a true Alpha in year four and you do it again the next year and you’re over six one your path to 15 touchdowns is actually it’s pretty simple because anybody who does that two straight years you’re four year five eight plus targets you average 12 touchdowns right you average 12 touchdowns.”
DK Metcalf and AJ Brown‘s touchdown potential 53:56
- DK Metcalf had the most End Zone targets in the NFL last year.
- However, he only scored six touchdowns on those targets.
- The expectation is that this ratio will improve for him, and he is compared to Dez Bryant in terms of End Zone targets.
- AJ Brown is also mentioned for his impressive touchdown rate.
- Both receivers have the potential for 15-plus touchdowns this year.
“DK Metcalf led the NFL with 21 End Zone targets last year… that’s going to swing the other direction. He is the Dez Bryant of this generation, the End Zone targets… and AJ Brown is really close to what Jamar Chase did. He averages a touchdown every 12.6 targets.”
JK Dobbins‘ potential as a top 10 running back 55:32
- The bold prediction is made that JK Dobbins will finish as a top 10 running back.
- It is mentioned that JK Dobbins missed the beginning of the previous year but performed well when he returned from injury.
- The argument is made that even though Lamar Jackson is a running quarterback, the running backs on his team still have the potential to score a significant number of touchdowns.
- The comparison is made to other running backs who finished in the top 15 in previous years.
- JK Dobbins has the opportunity to reach double-digit touchdowns and achieve top 10 status.
“Here’s the deal… JK Dobbins top 10 fantasy running back… gets on the field week three for about four games he averages 3.5 yards per carry… gets a clean-up surgery and he comes back… he was the running back 14 averaging seven yards per carry… double digits, that’s what we need from JK Dobbins.”
Running backs with six yards per carry in a season 01:00:27
- Mentioned running backs with a season average of six yards per carry.
- Barry Sanders, Adrian Peterson, O.J Simpson, Jamal Charles, CJ Spiller, Mercury Morris, JK Dobbins.
“Six yards per carry is an impressive feat achieved by some notable running backs like Barry Sanders and Adrian Peterson.”
Outlook for JK Dobbins in the Baltimore Ravens offense 01:01:19
- Highlighted the significant drop in targets for running backs with the arrival of JK Dobbins.
- Pointed out that a previous Ravens running back (Devonta Freeman) had 42 targets in a season.
- Speculated that Dobbins could potentially see an increase in targets.
“JK Dobbins could unlock some upside in the passing game, considering that previous Ravens running backs have seen as many as 42 targets in a season.”
JK Dobbins as a top 10 running back 01:03:06
- Discussed the possibility of JK Dobbins finishing as a top 10 running back.
- Cited his talent, being on a great offense, and potential increased passing game involvement.
- Acknowledged that it’s a bold prediction but within the realm of outcomes.
“I believe JK Dobbins has the potential to finish as a top 10 running back due to his talent, the strength of the Ravens offense, and the possibility of increased involvement in the passing game.”
Justin Herbert‘s potential for a 50-touchdown season 01:05:30
- Mentioned the rarity of quarterbacks achieving 50 total touchdowns in a season (Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers).
- Speculated that Justin Herbert could reach this milestone due to his talent, previous touchdown numbers, and a blend of favorable and unfavorable factors.
- Noted Herbert’s record-breaking 31-touchdown rookie season.
“Justin Herbert has the potential to reach 50 total touchdowns in a season, a feat achieved only by a select few quarterbacks, thanks to his talent, past touchdown numbers, and a mix of favorable and unfavorable circumstances.”
David Montgomery‘s upside and value 01:15:02
- David Montgomery has similar upside as Jamal Williams, who was an RB1 last year for the Detroit Lions.
- Montgomery is an even better running back playing the same position, and he is being drafted in the seventh round.
- He has good goal-line running ability and is a well-rounded and talented back.
- Luck also plays a role in having the opportunities to perform well.
“David Montgomery […] has the same upside because he is an even better running back playing the same position and he’s in the seventh round.”
Evaluating David Montgomery as a Fantasy Football Draft Pick 01:16:43
- Montgomery has been a volume running back for Fantasy purposes, but he has been inefficient.
- The presence of Jamir Gibbs, who was drafted highly, raises questions about Montgomery’s goal-line opportunities.
- Montgomery’s history with goal-line carries has not been impressive.
“Montgomery is a very interesting draft pick who I think is like, I like his ADP, but I’m not going to go crazy for him.”
Importance of Upside and Touchdown Potential in Drafts 01:17:21
- The author initially liked Montgomery’s upside, but has cooled on him over time.
- The author emphasizes the need for players with high upside and the potential to break out.
- Montgomery’s history of scoring touchdowns inside the five-yard line is not great.
“The touchdowns for David Montgomery inside the five, he’s never really been great…”
Players to Reach For in Fantasy Football Drafts 01:19:06
- The hosts discuss players they would be willing to reach for in drafts.
- Andy mentions Khalil Herbert as a starting running back who can be drafted earlier if needed.
- Dalton Kincaid is Jason’s pick, as he believes in his potential as a number two target.
“For me, it’s Khalil Herbert…He’s a starting running back and if you went really wide receiver heavy and you’re in the seventh, you’re like, no, I gotta start making sure I have guys who will get touches, draft Khalil.”
Jason’s Surprising Change of Opinion on Dameon Pierce 01:20:33
- Jason talks about a player he wasn’t initially high on, but has changed his opinion of.
- Damien Pierce is someone Jason is now willing to draft in the 4th round due to his talent and opportunity.
- He mentions the potential for Pierce to finish as an RB1.
“There is a player I was not in on in the offseason, and I have completely changed…Right now, it’s Damien Pierce…he looks absolutely not replaced, he’s the guy.”
Keeper League Strategies and Valuing Future Players 01:21:41
- The hosts discuss keeper league strategies, specifically in a three-team keeper league.
- They emphasize that in such leagues, focusing on youth or current players doesn’t matter.
- The unpredictability of keeper leagues and emergence of new talent make it more important to draft the best players.
“You don’t care at all in a three-professional advice keeper league… Draft Derrick Henry and don’t worry about his next season… Draft the best players.”
Drafting Multiple Rookies as Foundational Pieces 01:24:42
- The person asking the question is wondering if it’s a good strategy to draft multiple rookies as foundational pieces of their fantasy football roster.
- They specifically mention Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs as examples.
- The hosts reassure the person that this strategy doesn’t scare them and that it can be a successful approach.
- The hosts explain that rookies with high draft capital and opportunities like Bijan and Jamir have a good chance of performing well.
- They also mention the upside and potential for elite years that rookies can bring to a fantasy team.
“Rookie draft picks are usually where success is found, and if they don’t hit, you can always move on.” 01:26:36