Early WR Rankings Countdown: 20-11 + Target Power!
Early wide receiver rankings for 2023! On today’s fantasy football podcast, debates and hot takes as early WR rankings are revealed! New hotness or old reliable? Consistency or big boom potential? Plus, the latest NFL News including a massive contract extension for Jalen Hurts! Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. — Fantasy Football Podcast for April 18th, 2023.
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Introductions and Announcements 00:00
- They mention that they will be ranking the top 20-11 wide receivers in the episode.
- They also discuss how they have new features on the way for the Ultimate Draft Kit, which will be released on June 1st.
- The Dynasty Pass is currently available for purchase on their website.
- They briefly mention that the NFL draft is happening next week and there are rumors about Dalvin Cook.
Jalen Hurts Signs Contract Extension 05:03
- Jalen Hurts, the quarterback for the Philadelphia Eagles, has signed a five-year, $255 million contract extension.
- The hosts discuss how the Eagles were unsure about Hurts last season, but he proved himself and earned the extension.
- They give credit to both Hurts and Jason, one of the hosts, for believing in him.
- They briefly mention that this news is good for dynasty fantasy football players.
Lamar Jackson Offered Contract Extension 06:37
- Lamar Jackson, the quarterback for the Baltimore Ravens, has reportedly been offered a contract extension that includes $200 million guaranteed.
- The hosts discuss how this offer is good for the NFL and quarterbacks because it brings some normalcy to the quarterback market.
- They mention how Jackson has been trying to hold the NFL hostage for fully guaranteed contracts, and this offer is less than what Deshaun Watson received.
- They predict that Jackson will be forced to reevaluate his contract demands now that Jalen Hurts has signed his extension.
- They briefly mention that the Chargers and Bengals have also been making moves.
Keeper League Discussion 08:18
- The League of Record has a unique format where it’s a three-keeper league with a process to choose a franchise selection and then three more from the roster of the last year.
- A keeper lottery happens during a special day in the league right after the NFL draft where only two of the three keepers are chosen at random to be on the team.
- The other one goes back into the draft, which helps randomize the talent at the top of the draft.
- Mike has to lock in who goes into the keeper lottery, and the franchise selection is Christian McCaffrey.
- DeAndre Swift is going back into the draft, and the hosts joke about adding a new twist to choose one player from their roster that they get to kick out of the league for a year.
Dalvin Cook Discussion 11:39
- The Vikings general manager stated that conversations are always ongoing with Dalvin Cook, but it seems like he won’t be staying with the team.
- The odds of him being traded are high if there is any kind of market for him. The Vikings might also cut him as they need the money and don’t want to invest in Dalvin Cook.
- ESPN’s John Keim reported that the Commanders made it clear that they believe in second-year quarterback Sam Howell.
Sam Howell Discussion 12:07
- The hosts discuss the potential of Sam Howell taking over the starting job in 2023 for the Commanders.
- Howell is a good prospect who fell in the draft, and the Commanders are likely to lose a decent amount of games, but he is a quality player.
- Jason is surprised that he doesn’t have Sam Howell on his dynasty team.
Wide Receivers 14:03
- Tyler Lockett is ranked at number 20 overall in the early WR rankings countdown.
- Lockett has been consistently in the top 15 for the last five years and had 84 catches for over a thousand yards and finished at WR13 last year.
- Lockett’s boom games decreased in 2021 with Geno Smith as the quarterback during the year.
- With Russell Wilson, Lockett had 31 great games, and the hosts discuss the definition of a “great game” in their Truth episodes.
- The hosts discuss the performance of Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf from the 2022 season.
- Despite doubts due to the quarterback situation, Lockett and Metcalf had great seasons and outperformed expectations.
- Lockett is expected to be a draft day value in the upcoming season due to his current ADP being lower than Metcalf’s.
- While Metcalf is ranked higher, Lockett may have a higher ceiling and is projected to be a top 15 wide receiver.
- The hosts encourage drafting both players if possible, but note that Metcalf’s higher ADP may make Lockett the better value pick.
Mike Williams‘ Disappointing 2022 Season 18:00
- The hosts discuss Mike Williams‘ 2022 season, which was seen as a disappointment.
- Williams had the opportunity to shine due to injury to other Chargers receivers, but failed to live up to expectations.
- Williams’ inconsistency and volatility make him a risky pick, but his potential to be the Chargers’ number one receiver could make him a post-type sleeper.
- However, the hosts caution that Williams has only finished in the top 20 once in his career and is unlikely to do so again.
Potential Impact of Jordan Addison on Mike Williams‘ Targets 18:51
- The hosts discuss the potential impact of wide receiver Jordan Addison on Mike Williams‘ target share.
- Rumors suggest that Addison could demand a lot of targets, potentially limiting Williams’ production.
- The hosts note that Williams’ best ball ADP may be higher than his expected draft position due to his potential upside, but caution that his inconsistency and volatility make him a risky pick.
Mike Williams and his ADP 20:40
- Mike Williams had 11.2 points per game last year.
- He missed 4 games and had a 13 point wide receiver 10 season.
- Williams can be a top 10 wide receiver in 4 out of 12 games.
- Williams is a boom-bust player and can be a flex player.
- It will be interesting to see how the fantasy community will draft Williams in redraft.
Deebo Samuel‘s potential 22:09
- Deebo Samuel is 27 years old and is currently ranked at 16 in early WR rankings.
- He has fewer opportunities to shine with the addition of Christian McCaffrey and Iuk.
- Deebo had a great 2020 season but only averaged 10.8 fantasy points per game last year.
- He is an elite physical athlete and can make elite plays.
- Deebo’s ADP is high and Iuk can be just as good at a cheaper cost.
- Deebo is probably a fringe wide receiver one type of player.
Brandon Aiyuk‘s performance 25:22
- Brandon Iuk had an outstanding 2021 season with 77 catches and 1400 receiving yards.
- Iuk’s 2021 season was sandwiched between a 7 game 11.8 yards per catch 2020 season and a 56 catch 630 yard 2022 season.
- Iuk’s rushing production decreased from 59 attempts to 42 attempts, but he still performed well.
- Iuk is cheaper than Debo and can be just as good.
- Iuk’s baseline is around 11 yards per catch.
Keenan Allen 27:13
- Keenan Allen is a WR for the Los Angeles Chargers.
- Keenan Allen missed most of the first half of the 2022 season due to injury.
- In the second half of the season, Keenan Allen was the WR4 from week 11 on.
- Keenan Allen will be 31 years old when the 2023 season starts.
- The offense Keenan Allen played in was not great and had some issues.
- Keenan Allen is a possession receiver and his routes are still sharp.
- Keenan Allen has not had a top 10 fantasy finish since 2019.
Keenan Allen‘s Upside 28:10
- The Fantasy Footballers are adding an upside meter to the ultimate draft kit.
- Keenan Allen‘s upside meter is expected to be higher than his ranking of 17.
- Keenan Allen is a safe player but still has upside potential.
- Keenan Allen had a consistent blast of performances in the second half of 2022.
- Keenan Allen‘s injuries are concerning for an older player.
- Keenan Allen‘s consistency and talent make him a good player for a good offense.
Keenan Allen‘s ADP 30:31
- Keenan Allen‘s basketball average draft position (ADP) is much lower than any of the ranks given by the video hosts.
- The video hosts think that Keenan Allen is not even a WR2 in basketball ADP.
- The video hosts believe that Keenan Allen should finish as a WR2 or better in 2023.
Keenan Allen‘s Archetype 30:20
- Keenan Allen is a possession receiver archetype.
- Larry Fitzgerald is an example of a possession receiver archetype.
- Larry Fitzgerald was able to produce at a high level when he was 33-34 years old.
- Adam Thielen is another example of a possession receiver archetype.
- Adam Thielen‘s production has been consistent despite his age.
- Keenan Allen‘s archetype should work for him going forward.
Devonta Smith 32:25
- Devante Smith is a WR for the Philadelphia Eagles.
- Devante Smith had a great season in 2022 with 136 targets, 95 receptions, 1,196 yards, and 7 touchdowns.
- The video hosts have Devante Smith ranked at 18.
- Mike does not like the green jerseys that the Philadelphia Eagles wear.
Devonta Smith‘s 2022 Fantasy Outlook 33:01
- The hosts discuss whether Devonte Smith’s breakout in 2021 was a fluke or whether he can sustain his performance in 2022.
- The concern is that Smith’s production was largely driven by the Eagles’ weak schedule in 2021.
Devonta Smith‘s Upside and Risk 33:18
- The hosts debate where to rank Devonte Smith in their early 2022 WR rankings.
- While Smith finished as the WR10 in 2021, they are hesitant to rank him that high for 2022 due to potential regression and concerns about the Eagles’ offense.
Devonta Smith‘s Ceiling and Floor 33:21
- The hosts consider where to rank Devonte Smith in their 2022 WR rankings based on his projected average fantasy finish over the next five years.
- They tentatively suggest that he could be ranked around WR10 again, but acknowledge that his floor is lower because of the potential for a decline in his production.
Devonta Smith vs AJ Brown 33:30
- The hosts discuss the relative fantasy value of Devonte Smith and AJ Brown.
- They believe that Brown is the true WR1 on the Titans, which could limit Smith’s upside in the Eagles’ offense.
Dallas Goedert‘s Impact on Devonta Smith‘s Fantasy Value 33:33
- The hosts debate how Dallas Goedert‘s presence in the Eagles’ offense affects Devonte Smith’s fantasy value.
- They note that Smith’s breakout in 2021 coincided with Goedert’s injury, which could suggest that Smith’s production could decline with Goedert back in the lineup.
Jalen Hurts‘ Fantasy Value 34:05
- The hosts discuss Jalen Hurts‘ potential to sustain his 2021 fantasy production in 2022.
- They acknowledge that Hurts is unlikely to put up Patrick Mahomes-like numbers consistently, but still has value as a fantasy QB.
DeAndre Hopkins‘ Potential Landing Spots 38:13
- The hosts discuss DeAndre Hopkins‘ recent Instagram post where he responded to questions about where he would like to play next.
- Hopkins showed interest in playing for the Bills and the Chiefs, but did not seem excited about the Patriots or Jets.
- The hosts note that Hopkins’ final fantasy ranking for 2022 will depend on where he lands in the offseason.
Amon-Ra St. Brown 39:32
- Almondra St. Brown had a fantastic season in 2022, finishing as the WR8 with 106 receptions, 1161 yards, and six touchdowns.
- He was not a consistent WR2 as he finished inside the top 24 only six times.
- The Fantasy Footballers are optimistic about his future and believe that he has the talent to demand 140+ targets and catch 100 passes in a season.
- They do not see Jameson Williams, another Lions receiver, precluding Almondra from getting near 100 receptions again.
- Jared Goff is expected to be the Lions quarterback and the team is unlikely to trade up for another quarterback in the draft.
Tee Higgins 45:21
- T. Higgins is a 24-year-old receiver for the Bengals who is yet to receive a contract extension.
- The Fantasy Footballers have him ranked just outside the top 12 receivers.
- His contract extension is likely to be resolved after the Bengals resolve the Joe Mixon and Joe Burrow situations.
Tee Higgins’ 2022 season and 2023 expectations 45:43
- Ja’Marr Chase is the Bengals’ top receiver, but T Higgins also had a good season in 2021 with 109 targets.
- However, he finished as the WR17, which was a bit worse than expected.
- He had a solid season, but some expected him to be closer to a WR1.
- It’s possible that Higgins will have a similar season in 2022, but it’s also possible that he could improve if he gets more targets.
Tee Higgins’ potential and draft value 47:31
- T Higgins has a lot of potential and could have some big games even when Jamar Chase is on the field.
- However, he is being drafted appropriately, so he may not be a great value pick in fantasy drafts.
- Some people may be willing to spend a high draft pick on him, but others may prefer to look for a bargain elsewhere.
Chris Olave‘s rookie season and 2022 expectations 49:52
- Chris Olave had a good rookie season in 2022 and lived up to the hype as the 11th overall pick in the draft.
- He ranked top five among all rookie WRs in yards per route run and targets per route run.
- He has a lot of talent and could play at an elite level in the NFL for a long time.
- However, it’s unclear how much he will be able to succeed with Derek Carr as his QB.
- Carr is better than Dalton, but the offense may not be well-suited to Olave’s strengths.
Olave’s potential and future outlook 51:04
- Despite the uncertainty surrounding the Raiders offense, Olave is a stud and has undeniable talent.
- He could potentially be a top-five WR in the future.
- His 2.42 yards per route run in 2021 was very impressive and shows that he has the potential to be a dominant receiver in the league.
Chris Olave‘s Upside 51:51
- Chris Olave’s is a second-year wide receiver who is expected to perform better this season.
- In his first 10 games, his Pace was 86 receptions on 140 plus targets, 1300 yards, and five touchdowns.
- Last year, he became the go-to guy for his team, and he was successful in delivering.
- If he gets at least a slight upgrade in the quarterback position, he is expected to be an absolute monster.
Second-year Wide Receivers 52:07
- In fantasy football, second-year wide receivers are targeted because they usually make the jump in their second season.
- Speculating on second-year wide receivers is necessary, and some players like Michael Pittman took some time to get established in their second year.
Derek Carr and Garrett Wilson vs Olave 53:22
- Derek Carr is an upgrade over Andy Dalton, and he is expected to have a great season.
- The conversation of Garrett Wilson vs Olave is a close one, and both players have different strengths.
- Olave is better at winning down the field, and Dalton didn’t give him enough chances to do that.
- Wilson is a close contender and has a lot of potential.
DK Metcalf‘s Production 54:12
- DK Metcalf is an excellent wide receiver, and all three of the hosts agree that he is a great player.
- However, his production is not as high as expected, and he finished as the 18th wide receiver in the last season.
- Metcalf scored only six touchdowns last year, which is low considering he led the NFL in end zone targets.
- Although Metcalf is an excellent player and is bust-proof, he is not worth his draft pick, and there are players like Olave, Higgins, and Saint Brown who are better options.
- Metcalf’s production is expected to increase this season, and he may end up with more touchdowns than Tyler Lockett.
DK Metcalf‘s Performance and Targets 57:52
- DK Metcalf was a top 10 wide receiver last year.
- He had 10 top wide receiver targets.
- Red zone targets are 1.7 times as valuable as targets between the 20s, while targets inside the 10 are more than twice as valuable.
- Metcalf had 24 end zone targets, which are 2.5 times more valuable than any other targets between the 20s.
- Despite having 24 end zone targets, DK’s touchdown count was not an outlier as it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect him to score 13-14 touchdowns.
- There is a balance to be had with confidence in Geno Smith to come back under contract and perform again, Tyler Lockett‘s involvement in the offense, and Kenneth Walker‘s emergence.
- DK Metcalf can be pricey, so it’s important to consider whether it’s worth giving up the chance at a discount on Tyler Lockett to take him.
Having Two Top 20 Wide Receivers 58:41
- DK Metcalf was the 18th receiver, while Tyler Lockett was the 17th receiver last season.
- Consistency is something to consider when picking both of them for a fantasy football team.
- Two good wide receivers mean that the team will have a lot of value, but it may not be desirable to have both of them on the same team.
- The consistency zipper is when two players are consistently performing well together, and it’s something that the hosts have been noticing with DK and Tyler.
Comparing Quarterbacks 01:00:24
- Geno Smith threw for just under 4,300 yards and had 30 passing touchdowns last year.
- Jalen Hurts‘ average would have been just under 4,200 passing yards and 25 passing touchdowns if he hadn’t missed some games.
- Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Kyler Murray are quarterbacks that can provide enough value to their teams.
- It’s uncertain whether Geno Smith will be able to provide enough value for both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
- It’s important to consider the quarterback when choosing which receivers to draft on a fantasy football team.
- The hosts will be counting down the top 10 wide receivers in their next episode.
- Listeners can join their fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow them on Twitter at the FF ballers.