Trade Targets for the Dynasty Offseason (Fantasy Football)

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What an incredible championship week!! It had everything: three games on Christmas (christmasfootball.com!) featuring the most random cast of backup QBs, league-winning performances from superstars (Derrick Henry, Bijan, Purdy/CMC), complete duds from superstars (Josh Jacobs, Drake London, the Eagles) late injuries throwing a wrench into every lineup (Kittle, Lamar Jackson) clutch production from waiver wire gems (Malik Willis, Parker Washington, Rhamondre Stevenson), and an 80-point game between the Bears and 49ers on SNF.

I made some great calls (Brock Purdy pre-playoffs, Rhamondre Stevenson for championship week), and I made some not-so-great calls (Michael Carter, selling QJ) heading into the playoffs this year. Overall, I hope this season’s advice has had a largely positive impact on your fantasy season.

Yet another amazing quality of dynasty leagues is that the action literally never stops. We just wrapped the championship in my dynasty leagues, and I’m already shooting offers out before we head into draft season. The NFL playoffs will give us plenty of offseason storylines to gas up some players and leave us with questions on others. Listed below are a few players to keep an extra close eye on in the postseason and the offseason.

Players to Trade For (“Recency Bias” Edition!)

Luther Burden

I’m not patting myself on the back to say that I’ve been on the Burden hype train since well back into his college days at Mizzou (I grew up outside of St. Louis and always like to follow the local stars through college). Most people knew about his college production and potential. Burden was a flag-plant type of guy for me, and I got as many shares as I could afford in my dynasty leagues. I even recommended trading out of the first round of rookie drafts to draft Burden in the second round instead (and pick up future draft capital) in an article way back in June.

To be fair, his season has been an exercise in patience. He couldn’t get on the field ahead of Olamide Zaccheaus early in the year; then Rome Odunze appeared to be the Bears WR who was going to best take advantage of Ben Johnson’s scheme; and then Burden dealt with injuries. But anyone who watched the SNF fireworks this week saw just how special Burden can be. He was absolutely unguardable, his after-the-catch skills are as good as nearly anyone in the league (he ranks third in YAC per reception among WRs), and he boasts a top-12 passer rating when targeted as well. He was absolutely the go-to WR on the Bears, and he delivered big for them.

Obviously, this is still a crowded receiving corps heading into next season (Colston Loveland also showed out on SNF), unless the team decides to part with DJ Moore. But Burden is the future, and I’m easily paying a first-round pick in this year’s draft to acquire him.

Brock Purdy

What I’ve seen out of Brock Purdy down the stretch this season has me all-in on him as a QB1 for a long time to come. His accuracy is insane, he makes plays off-script with the best in the league, and he perfectly operates a system that is among the most dynamic in the league.

It’s easy to look at the offensive weapons on this team (CMC and George Kittle are perhaps the best at their positions in the league right now) and make the case that any competent QB could put up big numbers. And it’s true that Mac Jones looked good in this offense earlier this season as well. But he was no Brock Purdy. Purdy makes this offense truly dominant. In his first full season as a starter, Purdy finished as QB6 in fantasy. Last year, despite only playing in 15 games, he finished as QB14. He has been a top-6 QB in four of his last six games this year.

Detractors may point to the fact that CMC and Kittle are nearing retirement age, so you may only see this exact crew together for another year or two. And it’s true that they will be nearly impossible to replace one-for-one. But Purdy made Jake Tonges look like Gronk on SNF this week, so I think that’s a bit overblown. You have to believe the 49ers will start succession planning, especially in their WR room. With Jauan Jennings and Brandon Aiyuk being oft-injured, difficult-to-manage personalities, I expect the team to continue adding young WRs to this roster in the draft, in order to reload for the future.

Chase Brown

I’m absolutely kicking myself for not getting a deal done for Brown this week. It would have landed me one more dynasty championship, and I’d feel pretty good about the future of my team as well. Brown has been the RB6 overall since Week 8, behind only CMC, Bijan Robinson, Derrick Henry, James Cook, and Jahmyr Gibbs. The season has been a bit of a train wreck for the Bengals, but once they had all their offensive pieces back together, Brown has been the same guy we saw in 2024.

The only question I have for Brown is actually surrounding Joe Burrow. I’m getting some Andrew Luck vibes right now in Cincinnati, and I’m not sure if it’s something or nothing. It seems as though Joe is either unhappy, unmotivated, or just frustrated. But any of those emotions can lead to some unexpected decisions. Is there a chance Burrow walks away from the game? I doubt it, but the fact that I’m even questioning it makes me nervous. Could he request a trade out of Cincinnati? Maybe. What do the Bengals do at QB then? It must be frustrating knowing that your offense is one of the very best in the league (#6 scoring offense when Burrow plays this season, 28.0 PPG), and yet you can’t make the playoffs because your defense surrenders 29.5 points per game (second worst, behind only the Dallas Cowboys).

Back to the point: assuming the team gives Burrow confidence that they are moving in the right direction this offseason, and therefore assuming all the offensive playmakers are back on the roster next season, Chase Brown is set up for fantasy goodness for years to come. He should finish the season with his second straight top-10 RB performance, and he carries a lot of momentum into 2026 from a strong second half of the year.

Players to Trade Away

Kyren Williams

I love Kyren, and I think he’s still got plenty of gas left in the tank. The reports coming out of Los Angeles were that the team wanted to limit his reps this regular season in order to keep him as fresh as possible for the postseason. He will likely run wild this postseason.

But in the process of limiting his reps, we have all seen just how good Blake Corum could be in this offense. It’s hard to tell these backs apart, especially since they wear numbers 22 and 23 on the field. But every time I think “dang, Kyren has some serious burst today,” I see the player roll over on the ground, and it’s number 22 – Blake Corum.

I’m not sure if Corum takes control of this backfield in the future, because what the team has been doing has been really working. But that’s still a problem for me, because we are seeing less (albeit more efficient) work for Williams this year than the last couple. Kyren is a very consistent RB (the Ballers rate him as a B in consistency), but I just don’t think things get any better than they were this year, and I’m nervous that they could get worse. I’m thanking him for his service and selling high on a steady top-12 RB.

Brian Thomas Jr.

This year has been brutal for BTJ owners. And I’m not normally a proponent of selling low, so I wouldn’t just dump him for pennies on the dollar. But 60-70 cents on the dollar? Maybe so. My biggest concern with BTJ actually boils down to his connection (or lack thereof) with Trevor Lawrence. There were sharps who pointed out this offseason that much of BTJ’s sensational rookie stats were accumulated while Mac Jones was under Center for the Jags (the final six weeks of the 2024 season). I filed that away, but didn’t write off BTJ altogether because of it, because that timeframe also coincides with many rookie year ramp-up periods. When he struggled early this season, we all gave him grace and chalked it up to maybe a wrist injury, or maybe struggling to adapt to the new Liam Coen offense, or maybe increased target competition with Travis Hunter.

Then the Jags went and signed Jakobi Meyers – and he had success – and then they extended him. And Parker Washington is still popping off as a PPR Merchant. Even with Travis Hunter out for the season, BTJ still struggled to return the dominant numbers he produced in 2024. Now that we have a full season of statistics to look back on, a couple of numbers have me completely shaken. For starters, BTJ caught more than four passes in a game only twice this year. Four receptions?? He eclipsed that number 10 times in 2024. You’ve gotta earn targets in order to get receptions, right? Well, BTJ also earned more than seven targets only twice this year. He had 8+ targets nine times last year. Next, let’s look at his catch rate: Thomas has caught 52% of his targets this season, compared to 65% in 2024. Trevor Lawrence is having the best year of his career, and these two simply can’t get on the same page. How about yardage? Thomas hasn’t recorded a single 100-yard game this season. He had four last season, and three in the final six weeks (the Mac Jones era). In fact, he has only eclipsed 60 yards in four of his 13 games this season (31%), compared to 12 of his 17 games in 2024 (70%). And finally, he’s not scoring TDs; Thomas has just two TDs in 2025, compared to 10 in 2024. Looking back, the only times BTJ was a top-25 WR in 2024 with Trevor Lawrence at QB were games when he caught TDs.

These are all just the basic stats; the advanced stats only further highlight the same issues. Yards per route run are down from 2.55 to 1.60, his red zone target share dropped from 25.4% to 11.7%, Targets per route run are down from 26% to 22%, and his Target Rate is down from 26.5% to 20.5%. I could go on and on, but the point is this year has been a bust for BTJ, and I’m nervous that our ceiling outcome in the future will be somewhere between his 2024 and 2025 production. This from a guy we talked up as a potential top-5 dynasty WR in the preseason.

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He’s so young (still just 23 years old), and he’s tied to what looks like a really nice offensive system, with a rejuvenated QB. Things should be pointing up for Thomas. But I’m nervous that he’s just not going to be a consistent fantasy producer for us, and I’m taking offers to ship him away this offseason.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Bill)

We all know that Bill can make a snowman out of fire… But can he be an RB1 in the NFL? Well, he has four TDs in the last three games and has two top-13 finishes in that span. Bill’s game log is a pretty wild ride, as his YPC numbers are almost entirely under 3.5 or over 6.5 (he only landed in between these numbers on four occasions). When he hits, he slams (four top-13 RB finishes); but when he fails, he fails miserably (eight finishes as RB40 or worse). This level of inconsistency will drive you nuts as a fantasy manager. JCM had all year to seize this backfield for himself, with weak competition in the form of Chris Rodriguez (CROD!) and Jeremy McNichols, but he couldn’t hold them off for more than a game at a time.

Two factors here concern me most: his lack of pass-catching and the team’s long-term plan for him. Bill has only 13 targets in 16 games, with a receiving stat line of 9/68/0 TDs. Not ideal. It wasn’t part of his collegiate production profile either, as he only caught 40 passes across five seasons (not including his lost 6th year). Derrick Henry aside, almost every fantasy-relevant RB has to catch at least a couple of passes per game. It seems inevitable that the Commanders will prioritize RB depth this offseason, whether they try to chase Breece Hall or Travis Etienne in free agency or address it in the draft. The buzz is that the Commanders have always viewed Bill as a complementary back, and the team would like to pair him with more of a thumper. So if he’s going to be potentially losing red zone work to a thumper, and he’s not much of a pass-catcher… what exactly is Bill’s real value in this backfield? He’s a home run threat with limited opportunities. And let’s not forget that Bill was a 7th-round draft pick himself, adding to the speculation that this year may have been the most we will ever see him featured.

Hit Me Up!

This is the last trade article of the fantasy season, but I’ll be active in my leagues all offseason as well! Hit me up anytime on X @kempertrull with whatever you are thinking about in your leagues. Thanks a million for checking out my articles this season! Happy New Year to all!

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