Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 5
Welcome back to another edition of the Dynasty Report!
Every week, this article will highlight the most impactful storylines from a dynasty perspective, as changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s value beyond this year. To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:
- Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL
- Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape
- Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects
And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and one of the Ballers!
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard
To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position.
For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) is a metric closely tied to volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between their actual production and expected fantasy value. This metric will generally fluctuate and regress to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on each week.
- Opportunity Share represents the percentage of targets and rush attempts a player accounts for on their team.
If you want me to include other metrics or have any questions on the data below, let me know on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
Rookie Stats and Observations from Week 4:
- In his first full game as their RB1, Cam Skattebo dominated in usage value. He finished with an impressive 43.5% opportunity share and 18.4 Expected Fantasy Points, ranking right behind Bijan Robinson and Josh Jacobs at RB5. Even when Tyrone Tracy returns, this might be Skattebo’s backfield to lose, cementing his value as a top 15 option every week.
- We finally saw Ashton Jeanty‘s breakout, as he achieved career-highs in opportunity share (45.1%), Expected Fantasy Points (15.9), and Fantasy Points Over Expected (+16.6) in Week 4. While this was partly due to a Bears defense that has struggled to defend RBs, it was encouraging to see Jeanty finally emerge after three quiet performances to start the year.
- One of the biggest surprises this week was the performance and usage of Woody Marks, who led the Texans’ backfield in opportunity share (34.9%), usage value (15.9 Expected Points), and fantasy production (25.9). Keep in mind that the Texans led the entire game, which could have led to a more run-heavy game plan that allowed them to rest Nick Chubb. Regardless, I fully expect his role to expand, which will only improve his dynasty stock going forward.
- For the first time in his rookie year, Emeka Egbuka finished as a WR1 in usage value with 15.5 Expected Fantasy Points, a 25.6% target share, and 46.4% air yards share. I fully expect his upward trajectory to continue, as the passing offense will likely revolve around him and Chris Godwin for the foreseeable future.
Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
- Elic Ayomanor continues to stand out as he set career-highs in both target share (30.4%) and air yards share (52.3%) against the Texans. While the Titans’ offense has struggled significantly to start the year, Ayomanor remains a bright spot for dynasty managers.
- Travis Hunter has failed to exceed a 20% target share over the last three weeks, as he remains outside of the top 30 in usage value at the WR position. At this rate, Hunter should be considered a volatile flex option until we see his usage improve.
- With the recent injury to Ja’Tavion Sanders, Mitchell Evans experienced an uptick in volume this past week. He set a career-high in route participation (47%) and target share (12.5%), while still trailing behind Tommy Tremble on the depth chart. However, despite scoring a TD, his usage still ranked well outside TE1 range (TE25), implying that he remains a risky option in most dynasty formats.
- On the other hand, Mason Taylor stands out as a potential breakout candidate with a 25.9% Target Share and 8.8 Expected Fantasy Points. His usage is trending in the right direction as he is quickly becoming the Jets’ second option in the passing game behind Garrett Wilson.
- In his first start of the season, Jaxson Dart flashed significant upside as he finished the week as a borderline QB1 in both production and usage. His rushing opportunities are what set him apart, accounting for 55% of his Expected Fantasy Points and allowing him to finish as a top-12 QB despite the limited passing volume. Assuming he continues to run the ball at a high rate, Dart will hold QB1 upside in the right matchups.
Dynasty Stock Report
Omarion Hampton – Los Angeles Chargers, RB – Stock Up
After a slower start to the season, we are finally witnessing the emergence of Omarion Hampton, who finished as an RB1 in back-to-back weeks. While the Najee Harris injury likely accelerated the breakout, Hampton has flashed elite upside and efficiency in recent weeks, reminding us of the player who dominated at North Carolina over the last two years. Since Week 3, Hampton has averaged:
- 34.7% Opportunity Share
- 66% Route Participation
- 14.2 Expected Fantasy Points
- +9.3 Fantasy Points Over Expected
Especially in Week 4, the Chargers relied heavily on Hampton as their RB1, finishing the game with a 100% designed rushing share and 73% route participation. Assuming this trend continues, Hampton is poised to become one of the most valuable dynasty assets over the next several years. Especially with the resurgence of Justin Herbert and the breakout of Quentin Johnston, Hampton should find plenty of success operating as their lead RB.
Rhamondre Stevenson – New England Patriots, RB – Stock Down
While the writing was on the wall when the Patriots drafted TreVeyon Henderson in the second round, Week 2 offered some hope that Rhamondre Stevenson could retain the RB1 role for New England. However, since his RB1 performance against Miami, Stevenson has ranked outside of the top 40 in Expected Fantasy Points, accounting for only 16% of the team’s total opportunities over the last two weeks. Surprisingly, both Stevenson and Henderson are currently unstartable as both have split touches nearly evenly. And with Antonio Gibson still partially involved, the Patriots’ backfield is one to avoid for fantasy purposes until they commit to one primary RB1. Long-term, however, I still believe this backfield will eventually belong to Henderson, who profiled as one of the better college RB prospects we have seen in recent history.
Jake Ferguson – Dallas Cowboys, TE – Stock Up
While the dynasty community has been heavily focused on the emergence of Harold Fannin and Tyler Warren, Jake Ferguson has been equally (if not more) impressive this year. Through the first four weeks, Ferguson emerged as Dak Prescott’s primary target as CeeDee Lamb continues to recover from his ankle injury. To start the season, Ferguson is averaging:
- 23.3% Target Share
- 29% Targets per Route Run
- 11.6 Expected Fantasy Points
For more context, his usage value (11.6 xFP) and Targets per Route Run (29%) lead all TEs to start the season. And assuming his elite volume continues, fantasy managers should feel confident in him as a TE1 regardless of matchup. In addition, at only 26 years old, Ferguson is arguably becoming one of the more valuable dynasty TEs, making a case to be a top-six player in ADP by the end of the year.
Anthony Richardson – Indianapolis Colts, QB – Stock Down
After receiving multiple opportunities to cement his value as the starting QB for the Colts, Anthony Richardson’s stock has taken a significant hit this season. After being valued as a borderline dynasty QB1 just a year ago, Richardson has now been replaced by Daniel Jones, who has been one of the most efficient signal callers this season. In fact, with Jones as their starting QB, the Colts’ offense is currently within the top three in metrics such as EPA per Play (0.153) and Success Rate (49.6%). For comparison, last season, the Colts’ offense ranked outside the top 20 in both metrics. On top of that, Jones is currently averaging the eighth-highest air yards per attempt (8.5) in the league with a positive Completion Percentage Over Expected (+5.1). As a result, barring an unforeseen collapse by Jones and the Colts’ offense, Richardson will remain the backup QB for the foreseeable future.
Prospect Watch List
The breakout of Justice Haynes has been one of the most intriguing storylines in college football. After starting his career with Alabama and receiving limited playing time, Haynes decided to enter the transfer portal and join the Michigan Wolverines this past offseason. While his role at Alabama would have likely expanded either way, transferring to Michigan was the best decision for his career, slotting immediately in as their RB1. And so far this season, Haynes has done nothing but improve draft stock. As you can see below, his 2.26 Scrimmage yards per Team Play ranks near the top in the nation, behind only Robert Henry and Jonah Coleman. In addition, his production this season currently ranks in the 92nd percentile, cementing his value as one of the top RBs in the nation. While his overall analytical profile still raises some concerns (primarily because of his unproductive career at Alabama), Haynes’ recent breakout elevates his profile enough to rank in the 85th percentile in my rookie model. That places him alongside some intriguing RBs such as Javonte Williams and De’Von Achane, two prospects who also did not break out until their Junior season in college. In short, assuming Haynes continues to dominate for the Wolverines, he should be one of the top RBs in rookie drafts next season.
As we approach the 2026 NFL Draft, here is a list of the most productive college football RBs this season:
