Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 2
Welcome back to another season of the Dynasty Report!
Every week, this article will highlight the most impactful storylines from a dynasty perspective. Since the season never truly ends in dynasty, changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s value beyond this year. To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:
- Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL
- Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape
- Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects
And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and a Baller!
2024 Rookie Opportunity Dashboard
To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position. For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) is a metric synonymous with volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between a player’s actual fantasy points and their expected fantasy value. This metric will usually fluctuate and regress to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on each week.
- Opportunity Share equates to the percentage of targets and rush attempts that a player accounts for on their team.
If you want me to include other metrics or have any questions on the data below, let me know on X or Twitter @FF_MarvinE. Data courtesy of @nflfastR.
Rookie Stats and Observations from Week 1:
- It was a quiet week for the 2024 rookie class. Players like Marvin Harrison Jr, Rome Odunze, and Trey Benson failed to make our Week 1 dashboard as their usage value came in below 5.0 Expected Points. Keep in mind, they still have 16 opportunities to turn things around. Do not panic!
- It was an abysmal week for the Carolina Panthers, but Xavier Legette was surprisingly heavily involved right out of the gate. He averaged 12.7 Expected Fantasy Points (usage value), which ranked within the top 16 among wide receivers this week. And even though he only received a 59% snap share, he averaged an efficient 30% targets per route run, 24.1% target share, and a 31.8% air yards share. While these numbers are impressive, Bryce Young needs to improve for these opportunities to ever translate into consistent fantasy production.
- Ladd McConkey led all rookie wide receivers in target share at 28%, which ranked WR17 in Week 1. However, with the Chargers ranking 23rd in Pass Rate Over Expected, his usage only translated into 8.7 Expected Fantasy Points. For context, Drake London was in a similar situation in his rookie season, averaging an elite 29% target share but only 9.2 in expected points in a run-heavy Falcons offense. Regardless, McConkey should be considered a flex option going forward, but we likely need to temper expectations unless the Chargers decide to the pass ball at a much higher rate.
- Malik Nabers finds himself in a similar situation as Legette, dominating in usage while dealing with atrocious quarterback play (more on that in the dynasty stock report). It was still encouraging to see him participate on 100% of the routes while commanding an 18.4% target share and a 26.8% air yards share. Unfortunately, his upside will remain limited unless Daniel Jones’ performance improves in the coming weeks. For context, the Giants finished with the lowest pass EPA per play in Week 1 with -0.43.
- Brian Thomas Jr. had an interesting debut as he averaged a 21% target share and 77% route participation while finishing the week as a top 20 wide receiver in half-PPR leagues. However, his production was heavily driven by efficiency, finishing with 5.6 Expected Fantasy Points (WR58) as Trevor Lawrence only passed the ball 21 times due to the game script. Considering the Jaguars were a top-10 passing offense in neutral situations last season, Thomas’ usage could translate into consistent production if their passing volume normalizes in the coming weeks.
- Brock Bowers did not disappoint in his first NFL game. Despite finishing with a modest 8.8 half-PPR points, it was his utilization on the field that truly stood out. He finished with a 25% target share, a 27% air yards share, and 10.0 Expected Points. For context, his usage value ranked TE3 this past week, behind only Isaiah Likely and Trey McBride. Assuming he remains a focal point for the Raiders, Bowers should be considered a weekly top-10 option at the tight end position.
- Jayden Daniels dominated for fantasy managers in his first NFL game. Despite only throwing the ball 24 times for 184 passing yards, he led ALL quarterbacks in rushing share at 53.3%. That was higher than Lamar Jackson (50%) and Jalen Hurts (34%). If he continues to run at this rate, fantasy managers can rely on him as a weekly QB1 going forward.
Dynasty Stock Report
Xavier Worthy – Kansas City Chiefs, WR
Stock Up
Speaking of rookies with upside, Xavier Worthy’s dynasty value skyrocketed this past week as he finished as a top 10 wide receiver with 19.8 half-PPR points. Before we crown him as an every-week starter, we need to put his production into context. First off, Worthy only received an 11.1% target share, finishing the week as the WR59 in Expected Fantasy Points (6.5 xFP). In other words, he relied heavily on efficiency to produce, scoring +13.3 Fantasy Points OVER Expected. Needless to say, that type of efficiency is highly unsustainable, which means Worthy will likely regress in the coming weeks. Even though his production will fluctuate, his performance only confirmed his immense upside with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. As one of the most productive collegiate wide receivers over the past three seasons, Worthy will have an opportunity to maximize his upside in one of the most efficient offenses in the league. And even though Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown will continue to compete for targets this year, keep in mind that Brown is only under contract for this season. With Travis Kelce also toward the tail end of his career, Worthy could quickly emerge as the second receiving option for Mahomes for the foreseeable future.
Dameon Pierce – Houston Texans, RB
Stock Down
Dameon Pierce is yet another example of why we should not hold on to day three running backs. After a productive rookie year, Pierce struggled in 2023 and was eventually replaced by Devin Singletary as the RB1 for the Texans. With Singletary leaving in free agency, Houston could have handed the keys back to Pierce as he approached his third season. Instead, they decided to trade for Joe Mixon, locking him in as their RB1 at least through the 2025 season. This was clearly reflected in their usage to start the year, as Mixon was the unquestioned RB1 for the Texans in Week 1. For context, Mixon accounted for 46% of the team’s opportunities, while Pierce finished with only a 4.2% opportunity share against the Colts. With such a drastic change in usage, Pierce’s dynasty value will continue to decline as he will likely play behind Mixon over the next two seasons.
Isaiah Likely – Baltimore Ravens, TE
Stock Up
Heading into the 2024 season, Isaiah Likely finished as a TE1 eight times throughout his career. Mark Andrews was unavailable or injured in seven of those eight games. In other words, Likely rarely produced when Andrews was in the lineup. However, with Andrews receiving heavy attention from the Kansas City defense, Likely operated as the focal point, commanding a 30% target share and 37% air yards share in Week 1. As a result, he led all tight ends in Expected Fantasy Points (usage value) with 18.0. And while I do expect Andrews to bounce back, it was extremely encouraging to see the Ravens run 12 personnel at such a high rate. For context, Likely received a 69% route participation while Andrews finished at 72%, providing both players with plenty of opportunities to earn targets. If that continues, Likely should be considered a borderline TE1 most weeks. In addition, from a dynasty perspective, he also finds himself in an intriguing situation. Andrews and Likely are both up for extensions next season as they are set to become free agents after 2025. Assuming Likely continues to improve, I would not be shocked if the Ravens invested in the younger player while letting Andrews go after the 2025 season.
Daniel Jones – New York Giants, QB
Stock Down
It was a disappointing start to the year for Daniel Jones, who finished as the QB30 in fantasy points. In addition, he finished second-to-last in total pass EPA (-22.5) this past week, ahead of only Deshaun Watson. Even if we exclude garbage time, Jones ranked as the:
- QB28 in Success Rate (25%)
- QB28 in Completion Percentage Over Expected (-16.8)
- QB29 in Air Yards per Attempt (4.5)
- QB23 in EPA per Play (-0.24)
The most astonishing part about his performance is that he ranked near the bottom in average depth of target, which would typically lead to a higher completion percentage. Despite that, he still struggled with his efficiency and accuracy against the Vikings’ defense. Unfortunately, if this trend continues, his contract situation will give the Giants an opportunity to pivot after this season. With zero dollars guaranteed, New York could waive him, save about $77 million over the next two years, and only retain a $22.2 million cap hit through 2026. Of course, Jones could still turn his season around. However, based on his performance over the last two years, this could be his last opportunity as the Giants’ starting quarterback.
Prospect Watch List
Nick Singleton was once considered one of the top candidates for RB1 of the 2025 rookie class. Not only was he ranked as the number one running back recruit coming out of high school, he also produced an outstanding true freshman season. In his first campaign, Singleton averaged over 88 scrimmage yards and one touchdown per game, finishing the year with an efficient 1.25 Yards per Team Play. For context, his production ranked in the 83rd percentile among all true freshman campaigns since 2013. Unfortunately, his numbers plateaued in 2023 as his efficiency declined significantly in 13 games. He would only account for 19% of Penn State’s entire offensive production, while only averaging 1.14 Yards per Team Play (54th percentile). With several running backs breaking out as sophomores (Ashton Jeanty and Ollie Gordon to name a few), Singleton had some ground to make up heading into the 2024 season.
The good news is that Singleton is already in the midst of a bounce-back season after dominating in his first two games. Against West Virginia and Bowling Green State, he finished with over 100 rushing yards and a touchdown, while averaging an elite 2.2 Yards per Team Play. For context, that would rank in the 91st percentile among all junior campaigns since 2013. I am curious to see if Singleton can maintain his production as his efficiency (9.3 yards per touch) will likely regress in the coming weeks. Especially if he continues to split touches with Kaytron Allen, he will need to make the most of his limited opportunities. Regardless, Singleton still projects to be a day one or two running back in the 2025 class. Combined with his size and projected athletic measurables, he has the upside to enter the draft as a +90th percentile prospect in my rookie model.
For a list of other prospects to keep an eye on, below are the top running backs through two weeks of the CFB season:
