Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 14
Welcome back to the Dynasty Report!
Every week, this article will highlight the most impactful storylines for fantasy football from a dynasty perspective. Since the season never truly ends in a dynasty league, changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s dynasty value beyond this year. To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:
- Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL
- Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape
- Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects
And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and a Baller!
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard
To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position. For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) are synonymous with volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between each player’s actual fantasy points and their expected fantasy value. This metric will usually fluctuate and regress to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on.
- Opportunity Share is the percentage of targets and rush attempts that a player accounts for on their team.
If you want me to include other metrics or have any questions on the data below, let me know on X or Twitter @FF_MarvinE. Data courtesy of @nflfastR.
Rookie Observations after Week 13:
- In his return from injury, Devon Achane did not waste any time reminding dynasty managers what he is capable of, finishing the week as a top-five running back in half-PPR scoring. He accounted for 36% of the team’s opportunities, while also leading the backfield in snaps (61%) and route participation (64%). While his expanded usage could have been a product of the game script, it was still encouraging to see Achane perform as efficiently as he did in Week 13. He has also now produced four top-five performances in only six games this season.
- Tyjae Spears received the highest usage value of his career at 15.5 Expected Fantasy Points as Derrick Henry missed part of the fourth quarter due to an injury. While Spears has shown an ability to carry the workload, recent reports indicate that Henry will likely return in Week 14.
- After four straight RB1 performances by Jahmyr Gibbs, he has finished outside the top 20 in back-to-back games. In addition, this past week, Gibbs also recorded the lowest snap rate (45%), opportunity share (18.2%), and route participation (54%) in his last six games. While I am still confident in Gibbs’ talent and opportunity, he will continue to be a volatile option with David Montgomery in the lineup.
- While it has not necessarily led to many fantasy points, Jonathan Mingo has now received at least a 20% target share and air yards share in four straight games. Week 14 was by far his most productive game as Mingo accounted for 38.5% of the team’s targets and 32% of their air yards, totaling 9.9 half-PPR points. While Bryce Young’s struggles will continue to limit his production, keep an eye on Mingo’s usage as it continues to improve in recent weeks.
- For the first time this season, Jaxon Smith-Njigba landed within the top 16 in Expected Fantasy Points with 12.4 xFP. He finished the game with a career-high in total opportunities (11) and the second-highest target share (28.9%) of his rookie year. More importantly, this was his most efficient game as he commanded an elite 34% targets per route run.
- For the second week in a row, Rashee Rice has received flex-level usage, ranking within the top 30 in Expected Fantasy Points in both Weeks 12 and 13. Surprisingly this past week, Rice was primarily used on shorter routes as he only garnered a 4% air yards share against the Packers. Regardless, he once again averaged 30% targets per route run, signaling that he should remain a focal point of the Chiefs’ offense going forward.
- Quentin Johnston has given us reason to hope in Week 13, as he received the highest target share (19.4%) of his career, while also averaging the highest targets per route run (23%) since taking on an expanded role in Week 4. While he has a long way to go before we can feel confident in starting him in our lineups, it was encouraging to see Johnston finish with the second-most half-PPR points of his career.
- With Luke Musgrave unavailable, Tucker Kraft has been thrust into the TE1 role for the Green Bay Packers. While his production has been inconsistent in two games as the starter, Kraft did set a career-high in target share (17.1%) and targets per route run (17%) against the Chiefs in Week 13. He has also participated on nearly 82% of the Packers’ routes since Week 12. Although he is unlikely to match Musgrave’s production, Kraft could be a viable option in deeper, premium leagues as he is expected to receive plenty of opportunities over the next few weeks.
Dynasty Stock Report
CeeDee Lamb – Dallas Cowboys, WR
Stock Up
When discussing the top wide receiver in dynasty football, Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson are the two names that immediately come to mind. However, CeeDee Lamb has made a strong case to be included in that top tier as well. Despite his age at only 24 years old, Lamb has already had a very successful career, finishing with over 1,000 scrimmage yards in each of his first three seasons. Furthermore, Lamb has taken his production to another level in 2023 as he currently ranks near the top in multiple production metrics. In 12 games, he is the:
- WR1 in Expected Fantasy Points (15.5)
- WR3 in Half-PPR scoring (18.3)
- WR5 in Targets per Route Run (27%)
He has truly been the centerpiece of the Dallas Cowboys‘ offense, accounting for 27% of the team’s scrimmage yards. Long-term, Lamb is in one of the most favorable situations for a wide receiver, as he should be linked to Dak Prescott for the foreseeable future. And even though he is approaching the last year of his rookie deal, I would be shocked if the Cowboys did not sign Lamb to a lucrative extension. Assuming he does sign his next contract with the Cowboys, he should be widely considered as a top-tier dynasty WR based on his age and elite production so far this season.
Mac Jones – New England Patriots, QB
Stock Down
After a very uneven start for Mac Jones, he was officially benched in Week 13 as Bailey Zappe took over as the Patriots QB1. Before being relegated, he was one of the most inefficient quarterbacks in the NFL. Among all players with a minimum of 100 plays (excluding garbage time), Jones is the:
- QB30 in EPA per Play (-0.113)
- QB25 in Success Rate (25.3%)
- QB31 in Completion Percentage Over Expected (-3.5)
With such an inefficient season, it was no surprise the Patriots had to make a change. Unfortunately, Jones’ dynasty value will take a sizable hit, assuming he continues to be the backup quarterback for New England. And with two ineffective campaigns on his resume, Jones is unlikely to receive another opportunity with the Patriots, especially if they can retain a top-two pick in next year’s draft. With a talented quarterback class on the way, Jones’ days in New England are likely numbered.
Jordan Love – Green Bay Packers, QB
Stock Up
Despite trading away Aaron Rodgers, the Green Bay Packers have somehow found themselves again in the playoff picture. Part of their recent success is driven by the improvement of Jordan Love, who has made significant strides in his first year as a starter. For context, in his first five games, Love was QB31 in Completion Percentage Over Expected (-15.2) and only QB23 in EPA per Play (-0.015). Since their bye week, he has been a completely different player, performing much more efficiently in his last seven games. In that timespan (excluding garbage time), he is the:
- QB10 in Completion Over Expected (3.4)
- QB11 in Success Rate (48.3%)
- QB8 in EPA per Play (0.208)
In addition, as you can see below, Love has been one of the most effective quarterbacks over the last month of football. Since Week 10, the only quarterbacks with a higher EPA per Play than Love have been Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy. While we likely need a larger sample size of sustained production before we can rank him as a dynasty QB1, it has still been encouraging to see his improvement over the last few games. Especially if Love can lead the Packers into the playoffs, I fully expect Green Bay to sign him to a long-term deal, further improving his dynasty value as we head into the 2024 season.
Wan’Dale Robinson – New York Giants, WR
Stock Down
It has been a tumultuous season for the New York Giants, dealing with several injuries to key players early in the year. That included Wan’Dale Robinson who missed the first two games as he continued to recover from his torn ACL. Unfortunately, even when Daniel Jones was healthy, Robinson struggled to produce. In 11 games playing with multiple quarterbacks, Robinson is only averaging a 16.7% target share, 9% air yards share, and 5.3 half-PPR points per game. He does lead the Giants in target share; however, that has not translated into fantasy production. As a result, after peaking as high as WR40 in dynasty value last season (per Keep Trade Cut), Robinson is now valued as the WR64 in ADP. And with plenty of uncertainty surrounding the Giants’ future, Robinson’s dynasty value will remain in flux as New York’s offense could look drastically different in 2024.
Prospect Watch List
For those who are already holding on to future picks beyond the 2024 rookie draft, Darius Taylor is a name to keep an eye on over the next couple of years. A three-star recruit out of Michigan, Taylor had a very productive high school career playing both running back and slot wide receiver. After receiving multiple offers from a variety of athletic programs, Taylor would commit to the Golden Gophers where he would make an immediate impact. While he only played five games due to an injury, we still saw flashes of his intriguing upside in his limited opportunities.
After chatting with Kane Rob, who hosts the Locked On Gophers Podcast, he had nothing but positive things to share regarding Taylor’s potential in Minnesota. Rob praised his patient running style, his ability to force missed tackles, and his dual-threat ability as a receiver. And after recently announcing his return to the Gophers, Rob expects another productive year from Taylor as he should be the lead running back for Minnesota in 2024.
From a production and efficiency standpoint, Taylor’s numbers are extremely impressive, especially for a true freshman. Not only did he account for 46% of the team’s total offense (yards and touchdowns), he also averaged an efficient 2.02 Yards per Team Play. As you can see below, of the Power 5 running backs to exceed 2.00 Yards per Team Play this season, Taylor is the only true freshman on this list. To also further put his dynasty and devy potential into perspective, we have only seen one running back drafted in the NFL since 2013 who averaged over 2.00 Yards per Team Play in their true freshman season: Nick Chubb. This should put into perspective just how rare it is for a true freshman to produce at a level similar to Darius Taylor. Naturally, an argument could be made that he only played five games and his production could have declined as the season progressed. Therefore, it will be especially crucial for Taylor to maintain or even exceed his 2023 numbers in his sophomore campaign. Regardless, dynasty managers will need to keep an eye on Taylor over the next two seasons as he already projects to be a first-round pick in your 2026 dynasty rookie drafts.
Below is a list of all Power 5 running backs with a +2.00 Yards per Team Play average in the 2023 season
The only true freshman to make this list?
Darius Taylor – Minnesota 🔥🚀 pic.twitter.com/0Obul5cTJO
— Marvin Elequin (@FF_MarvinE) December 5, 2023