Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 11
Welcome back to another edition of the Dynasty Report!
Every week, this article will highlight the most impactful storylines from a dynasty perspective, as changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s value beyond this year. To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:
- Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL
- Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape
- Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects
And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and one of the Ballers!
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard
To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position.
For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) is a metric closely tied to volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between their actual production and expected fantasy value. This metric will generally fluctuate and regress to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on each week.
- Opportunity Share represents the percentage of targets and rush attempts a player accounts for on their team.
If you want me to include other metrics or have any questions on the data below, let me know on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
Rookie Stats and Observations from Week 10:
- For the fifth time in his last six games, Ashton Jeanty has been a top 20 fantasy RB. More importantly, Jeanty’s usage has ranked within the top 12 in all but one game since Week 4. While he does have a lower ceiling due to the inefficiencies of their offense, Jeanty will remain an RB2 with upside for the remainder of the year.
- Woody Marks may have finally taken over the Houston backfield. In Week 10, he finished the week as a top 15 RB in Expected Fantasy Points, accounting for 64% of the Texans’ rushing opportunities. For comparison, Nick Chubb finished the game with only 4.4 Expected Points, which places him well outside of the top 40. If this usage holds, Marks will be a startable RB2 going forward, as Chubb’s dynasty value continues to decline.
Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
- TreVeyon Henderson finally had his breakout, finishing Week 10 with a top-six fantasy performance of 27.5 half-PPR points. On top of that, he was the RB2 in EPA per Rush Attempt, only slightly behind Jahmyr Gibbs in Week 10. While his usage numbers still leave room for improvement (only 26.8% opportunity share), that was partially impacted by his two long TD runs that ended their drives early. Most importantly, Henderson finally showcased why he should be the RB1 for the Patriots. Hopefully, this marks a turning point for their backfield, even when Rhamondre Stevenson and Terrell Jennings return to the lineup.
- Tez Johnson set a career-high with 18.2 half-PPR points, albeit on only an 11.6% target share. While Johnson will hold flex-level value in the most favorable matchups, his inconsistent usage makes him a risky start most weeks. On the other hand, Emeka Egbuka continues to be the most dominant rookie WR, finishing with an elite 30.2% target share and 57.8% air yards share.
- For context, target share is a steady indicator of whether a player’s production is sustainable or if they are reliant on game script or efficiency to work in their favor. As a result, even though Jayden Higgins was a top 30 WR this past week, his 15.9% target share implies that he is likely still a volatile flex option.
- Tyler Warren just set a season-high target share with 38.5%. To put that into context, that is the highest target share by a TE in a single game this season, ahead of some elite performances by Trey McBride, Tucker Kraft, and Dallas Goedert.
- Even though he left early due to a concussion, Jaxson Dart has now produced four QB1 performances in his last five games. Dart should already be a top 10 dynasty QB, with upside to move even higher if he remains healthy and can maintain his production to close out the season.
- In his second stint as the starter, Tyler Shough was one of the most efficient QBs in Week 10. He finished with a +10.4% Completion Percentage Over Expected and was a top-eight QB in EPA per Play (0.335).
Dynasty Stock Report
Jonathan Taylor – Indianapolis Colts, RB – Stock Up
Jonathan Taylor has been the most dominant RB in the league, picking up right where he left off last season. After averaging 26.0 fantasy points per game in the fantasy playoffs last year, Taylor has managed to maintain that level of production through the first 10 weeks. So far this season, he is averaging elite usage and efficiency numbers:
- 15.9 Expected Fantasy Points
- 68.9% Rushing Share
- 37.6% Opportunity Share
- 10.2% Target Share
- +10.0 Fantasy Points Over Expected
From a dynasty perspective, Taylor should still be considered a top 10 RB even at the age of 26. As highlighted in our Dynasty Lifecycle articles, we typically see RBs peak at the age of 26. And in the case of elite players, they usually experience a minor decline in production in their age-27 season. With that in mind, Taylor remains one of the better trade targets for contenders this season. If you can acquire him for multiple future picks (especially with a weaker RB class coming in), I would gladly make that trade as a contender, considering Taylor should still produce RB1 numbers for another season or two.
Kenneth Walker – Seattle Seahawks, RB – Stock Down
Kenneth Walker’s production and usage have steadily declined this season as the Seahawks’ backfield has slowly become a committee with Zach Charbonnet. Through 10 weeks, Charbonnet has averaged the highest snap share at 51%, while also accounting for 73% of the short down and distance snaps. Most importantly, he has also received 67% of their rush attempts inside the five-yard line, accounting for a majority of the high-value backfield opportunities. That leaves Walker with a limited role, ranking only as the RB31 in Expected Fantasy Points (9.6) this season. With Charbonnet also ranking outside of the top 30 in usage value, both players will remain flex options at best for the remainder of the year. It is worth noting that Walker is in the final year of his contract, which could lead to Charbonnet’s eventual promotion as their full-time RB1. And while Walker could find himself in a better situation next year, his dynasty value will remain in flux until the offseason.
Rico Dowdle – Carolina Panthers, RB – Stock Up
Entering the year, I assumed Chuba Hubbard’s role as the RB1 was safe based on his breakout season and recent extension. However, Rico Dowdle has been by far the more efficient and effective RB, forcing the Panthers to elevate him as their RB1. In the four games as their starter, Dowdle has averaged:
- 42.7% Opportunity Share
- 18.5 Expected Fantasy Points
- 22.4% Target Share
- +7.4 Fantasy Points Over Expected
For context, in that four-game sample size, he is second among RBs in Fantasy Points Over Expected and usage value, behind only Jonathan Taylor and Christian McCaffrey in each of those metrics. As a result, with Dowdle taking over their backfield, he should remain a borderline RB1 for dynasty managers for the rest of the season. As for his long-term dynasty value, the Panthers only signed him to a one-year contract, while Hubbard remains on the books (with a sizable cap hit) through the 2026 season. And even though Dowdle could eventually earn himself an extension at 27 years old, he is likely a player I am willing to trade away to a contender in exchange for future picks. For teams contending for a dynasty title, if you held on to Dowdle, he should remain in your lineups as a weekly top 20 option the rest of the way.
Xavier Worthy – Kansas City Chiefs, WR – Stock Down
With the return of Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy’s role has declined significantly, primarily operating as their WR2 over the last four weeks. In their previous three matchups, Worthy has only averaged an 18.9% target share and 8.9 Expected Fantasy Points, placing him well outside the top-36 in usage value. In other words, Worthy will be a risky WR3 option for dynasty managers as long as Rice remains in their lineup. On a positive note, he is still heavily involved in two-WR sets, participating in 83% of their available routes. In addition, Worthy remains Mahomes’ primary deep target, as evidenced by his team-leading 25.7% air yards share. Unfortunately, his inconsistent usage will likely prevent him from fully breaking out. Especially with Rice under contract through the 2026 campaign, Worthy will be a flex option at best for dynasty managers.
Prospect Watch List
Ohio State’s Carnell Tate was regarded as one of the better prospects coming out of high school, entering college as a five-star recruit and committing to the Buckeyes in 2023. However, considering their depth at WR, it was no surprise that Tate played a limited role behind Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka in his true freshman season. As a result, he only averaged about 6.5% of Ohio State’s receiving production in his first year. With Harrison Jr. entering the NFL, Tate’s role continued to grow in his second season. However, with the emergence of Jeremiah Smith, who is arguably the WR1 of the 2027 draft, Tate finished with only 1.7 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt (64th percentile) in his Sophomore campaign.
While his improved production was encouraging last season, the hope was for Tate to elevate his game even further as the potential WR2 for Ohio State this year. Eight games into the season, he has clearly exceeded those expectations. Through Week 11, Tate has accounted for 30.2% of the team’s receiving production, while averaging an elite 3.12 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt. On top of that, he remains one of the most efficient receivers in the 2026 class, averaging a 98th percentile career EPA Success Rate at 68%. Simply put, Tate has been an extremely consistent and reliable playmaker throughout his collegiate career. And assuming he can maintain his dominant production to close out the season, he should be in contention as the WR1 of the 2026 class, as teams will likely select him in the first round of the NFL draft. As a result, Tate is currently projected as a 92nd percentile prospect in my rookie WR model, locking him in as a top-five pick in dynasty drafts next season.
As we approach the 2026 NFL Draft, here is a list of the most productive college football WRs this season:
