NFL Pace of Play & DFS Stacks for Week 7 (Fantasy Football)

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Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.

Each week I’ll highlight my favorite game environments factoring in their pace metrics and stacks to consider for tournaments.

Game Pace Score

A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.

  • 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
  • 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
  • 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
  • 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
  • 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.

For Week 7, I’ve sorted by all 32 team implied totals while focusing on pass rate over expectation (PROE), no-huddle rate, and EPA per play to factor that for a final GPS score.

For a downloadable CSV version of the Pace of Play worksheet, click here.

I also get asked a ton about defensive coverages and how to view that information. There are a ton of stipulations, caveats, and nuance to utilizing defensive coverages in fantasy football. I will try to cover that in more detail below and on this week’s DFS & Betting podcast.

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Carolina Panthers @ Washington Commanders

What year is it? A Carolina/Washington game is the top option this week? While the total has slightly come down, the story around this game is clear: the defenses stink. Carolina is allowing the 4th most yards per game and you saw last week the Falcons had major success on the ground. Washington improved incrementally from their historically bad 2023 unit but it’s clear it is still a major point of weakness, especially on the defensive front with DL Jonathan Allen now on IR. While both teams play generally slow, the efficiency marks we look for in a back-and-forth game are clearly there. Washington’s pace metrics can be explained away when you factor in their historic no-huddle rate. At 57%, they rank 2nd among all NFL teams since 2016.

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