Pace of Play: Why It Matters for Start/Sit Decisions
Every week I write a “Pace of Play” article for our DFS Pass. It is a give-and-take endeavor knowing there are so many different ways to describe a team’s pace.
We are trying to find small edges in fantasy football. Maybe your opponent looks at their matchups, sees the projections, and moves on. However, Start/Sit decisions are more than looking at projected median outcomes. We want to find games that can “go off” or players on teams that have more opportunities. Pace of play gives fantasy managers an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.
- For every 5 seconds difference in terms of per play, a team runs 15 more plays per game.
- Over the last three years, on average, teams ran a play 0.8 seconds per play slower in positive game scripts than they did in neutral game script.
Andy and Jason discussed this on Monday’s Ready to Roll segment.
Pace of Play Terms
There are several different ways to measure the pace of a team. We need to hold all of these together as part of the piece of the puzzle describing what a team does.
Plays per Game- We have play data available for each Team Profile on our site. Type in a team in the top right search bar and you can sort and find play data and betting lines for each team. Here is the Dallas Cowboys
- Pros– More raw plays, more fantasy opportunities
- Cons– Can be skewed if a team went to overtime or had a recent weird game script
Seconds per Play– Are they leaving more time on the play clock?
- Pros– More time should equal more plays and more opportunities in theory.
- Cons– This can be skewed as well and at first glance, it seems like the differences
There is some great research done showing that offensive efficiency decreases as the play clock clicks down. Part of that is the defense anticipating the snap and being able to create a better pass rush and have better preparedness. QB who are less prepared might change plays or take longer on the play clock. In the first quarter, offenses typically “script” plays – anything off script may result in more time on the play clock and worsen performance.
No-Huddle– How often does this team speed things up at the line of scrimmage.
- Pros– More plays should equal more opportunities for fantasy; keeps defense from getting set
- Cons– Some great offenses play with a lead (i.e. DET) and their their no-huddle rate is low
Neutral Pace– This tries to neutralize the previous metrics by finding out the seconds per play when the game is within one score.
It tells us what a team wants to do if the score is close. This advanced metric indicates the tempo of an offense, with faster-paced teams providing more opportunities for players to accumulate stats. Understanding a team’s Neutral Situation Pace can help you target players from high-tempo offenses that run more plays and create more opportunities for fantasy points.
Pace of Play Ranks
Through Week 5, here is where each team ranked in terms of some of the categories listed above. This is sorted by seconds per play
Pace Up Teams
Washington Commanders
We know the Commanders have been arguably the best story in the NFL this year. Jayden Daniels is everything right now and we’re here for it! This team ranks #1 in No-Huddle Rate but the ranking doesn’t do it justice. This is a Kliff Kingsbury staple as 52% of their snaps are absurd! It is a top-5 rate over the last six years.
Takeaways:
- Ignore their pass rate as Jayden Daniels‘ historic scramble rate is skewing some of those numbers.
- We know Terry McLaurin is an every week start now but their efficiency and pace could bring another pass catcher into the picture.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts were paced-up last year under Shane Steichen despite losing Anthony Richardson in Week 5. They ranked ranked #1 in no-huddle rate (19.2%) and ranked 3rd in pace of play and 9th in plays per game inside the red zone. This year, the team remains fast but the play discrepancies between a Richardson team and a Joe Flacco team is astounding.
Takeaways:
- Their 1st 3 games will skew some of the data as their 150 offensive plays is the 2nd fewest of any team to start a season over the last decade. However, those were also Richardson starts as the team couldn’t sustain drives and their time of possession was non-existent.
- Joe Flacco is everything, but you already knew that. The passing options come alive with Flacco with Josh Downs as a PPR option and Michael Pittman Jr. seeing consistent volume.
Put Flacco anywhere and he’s gonna hoop.
— Kevin Durant (@KDTrey5) October 6, 2024
Other Pace Up Teams
- Dallas Cowboys– The Cowboys have been a top-5 paced unit for a couple of years and opportunities for guys like Jalen Tolbert have emerged.
- Seattle Seahawks– They rank #1 in Pass Rate and Geno Smith ranks #1 in passing yards.
- Chicago Bears– We’ve seen steady improvement from Caleb Williams albeit against weak defenses: IND, LAR, and CAR.
Slow as Molasses Teams
Buffalo Bills
Last year, the slow approach worked for Joe Brady once he took over in Week 11. They ranked 31st in pass rate but #1 in plays per game sustaining drives. This year, it has not been the case ranking 31st in plays and 25th in seconds per play. We saw the worst side of it the last two weeks against Baltimore and Houston, two of the AFC’s elites.
Takeaways:
- There are fewer routes and opportunities at WR. It is a committee approach which is a killer for having confidence in weekly start/sits. WRs not named Khalil Shakir have caught just 47% of their targets. Woof.
- The dream of Dalton Kincaid being a PPR superstar is likely dead.
Kansas City Chiefs
This is the lowest pass rate of the Patrick Mahomes era and we’re feeling it. This team is still seeing lots of plays inside the red zone but they are preferring to run the ball. Through four games (before MNF), Mahomes attempted just four red zone passes per game. Their rush rate inside the 20– (51%) is 7th highest in the NFL after ranking 30th in 2023. Slow, methodical drives are working in real life NFL despite the fact we are still seeing so many one score affairs.
Takeaways:
- Kareem Hunt might be here to stay after nine rushing TDs last year.
- It’s hard seeing a consistent 2nd or 3rd option emerge in the passing game but as the highest we’ve seen Mahomes’ WR2 finish in fantasy is WR51 dating back to 2018.
Other Slow Teams
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers– Baker has been wildly efficient but the run game basically erases plays.
- New Orleans Saints– Apart from those first two weeks where they went bonkers, the teams has played slow and inefficient.
- Los Angeles Chargers– We knew this coming in so thank you Greg Roman and Jim Harbaugh for the heads up!