NFL DFS Pace of Play: Game Stacks for Week 11 (Fantasy Football)
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.
Each week I’ll highlight my favorite game environments factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and five dart throws to shoot for the moon with.
Game Pace Score
A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 11, I’ve sorted by all 32 team implied totals while focusing on seconds per play and pass rate over expectation (PROE), and Expected Points Added per play (EPA) ranks from the first ten weeks.
For those that would like a CSV version of the above chart, you can download the Week 11 Pace of Play CSV.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Ah, an AFC North game sitting around a 50 total! For historical sake, this is the highest over/under of a PIT/CIN game since 2018. In fact, we haven’t had a game between these two teams sit at 50 points (before kickoff) since December 13th, 2015. Wowzers. The tale is much different in 2025 as the Steelers have combined for the 2nd most points per game (57.3) in the NFL and if you just look at Joe Flacco starts, the Bengals are in a different stratosphere at 68.8 combined points per game! The Bengals lead the NFL in offensive EPA since acquiring Joe Flacco (56.3).
The main storyline is how bad these defenses are with Cincinnati ranking dead last in yards per play, points per game allowed, and 31st in yards before contact allowed. It is seriously a pick your poison approach while the Steelers are a true pass funnel. Opponents are throwing the ball 39.7 times per game, the most in the NFL. They rank 31st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs making Ja’Marr Chase one of the easiest clicks of the week.
You could talk me into almost anyone in this game so instead of going focusing on one side at a time, let me just preview everyone!
Defenses have countered the CIN & PIT offenses with the two 2-highest safety looks in the NFL giving us an easy route to deciphering how to attack this week. This chart below is what coverages each offense has seen:
Here are some quick notes for all of the pass-catchers in this game against 2-high safety looks:
- Ja’Marr Chase– His 45 1st read targets lead the NFL
- Tee Higgins– His 14.3 aDOT makes him the cheaper big play option
- Andrei Iosivas– Tripling the inside the 20 targets of Higgins
- DK Metcalf– A pedestrian 16% TPRR and 1.90 YPRR definitely is meh.
- Calvin Austin III– 4th in terms of 1st read targets and a 1.13 YPRR
- Jonnu Smith– Leads the team with 22% TPRR, 19 receptions
- Pat Freiermuth– Leads team in FP/RR
- Darnell Washington– Leads the team in red zone targets
That might be a lot to digest but I do think the Steelers TEs are worth taking shots at and I think Jonnu is my favorite. He is still leading the group in route participation (67.6% last week) and the matchup against a Bengals defense on pace to allow THE MOST TE FANTASY POINTS OF ALL-TIME is not a bad dart to throw. Seriously, they’ve allowed 12 receiving TDs to opposing TEs, more than any other team allowed ALL OF 2024. Ok, I’m going to stop yelling at you.
The Bengals rank 30th in pass rush win rate, 32nd in blitz rate, and 31st in pressure rate. In other words, Aaron Rodgers in a clean pocket is going to be a big part of this game. The Bengals have allowed 23 passing TDs through nine games- tied for the MOST of any defense over the last 5 years. Keep in mind 69% of the Steelers’ passing yards have come after the catch this season, a higher mark than any other team in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). It’s an astounding rate but also (and you knew this was coming) the Bengals are the worst tackling unit in the NFL. They’ve allowed 63% of their passing yards to come after the catch this season, the highest rate in the league. This plays right into what Rodgers wants to do: get the ball out and let his YAC guys (Jonnu and the TE Monstars) do the work. DK Metcalf is honestly impossible to figure out but he needs to be in your tournament pool given the matchup.
Ok, so obviously we can stack up this game anyway we want. Flacco is a wild card: in one sense you get crazy passing volume but he also is a statue in the pocket against one of the heavier blitz teams in the NFL. I expect the ball to come out fast making Chase Brown is a solid stacking partner. I mean he had 14(!) targets in their last game.
Stacking Options
- Joe Flacco + Ja’Marr Chase + Chase Brown || D.K. Metcalf or Jonnu Smith
- Aaron Rodgers + Jonnu Smith + 3rd PIT option || Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins
- Jaylen Warren || Ja’Marr Chase
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
We talked up this game on Tuesday’s podcast as Mac & Jacoby continue to give us the gift of backup QBs chucking it. Both teams rank in the top-5 in offensive plays run per game and the Cardinals now rank 2nd in the NFL in PROE. Let Jacoby cook! It’s a solid matchup as the 49ers are 30th in EPA per play over the last five weeks and dead last in pressure rate. Per ETR’s Pat Thorman, the 49ers have the second-fastest offense during the past month, and their games deliver the sixth-most combined snaps. This game has lots of goodness: the cheap QBs, the dominant TEs, and CMC.
The ARI & SF defenses have both used Cover 3 & 4 shells 55% of time, tied for the 6th highest rates in the NFL. This gives us a starting place with how to attack this week. This chart below is what coverages each defense has utilized:
On the 49ers side, their offense has used 21 personnel on 33% of offensive snaps this season, the highest rate in the NFL.
Since George Kittle’s return in Week 7, they’ve done so on 41% of snaps, almost double that of the next-closest team (Patriots, 22.3%). This heavy personnel is mirroring alot of what the Seahawks have been successful with: throwing from a supposed “running set” does allow for more efficient passing. The 49ers are seeing the 2nd highest rate of zone coverage in the NFL (77.8%) and I expect this to be another spot for George Kittle to take advantage. I really don’t need to share anything about CMC other than the fact that Mac Jones has the strongest negative correlation coefficient (-0.59) of any of his teammates while Brock Purdy (0.86) has the highest. I don’t really know what to make of that but you can play CMC whatever way you want.
Maybe you don’t feel bad for a 6-3 team like the 49ers but injuries on the defensive side of the ball have certainly changed their outlook. Since Week 6, when Fred Warner suffered a season-ending ankle injury, the 49ers defense has allowed +0.16 EPA per play, the 3rd-most in the NFL in that span. Since EDGE Nick Bosa went down, the 49ers have been desperate to find any semblance of a pass rush. Last week, they tried to blitz on almost 50% of Matthew Stafford‘s drop backs. Narrator: but it did not work. Our guy Jacoby has a 55% success rate against the blitz this season (tied for the highest among qualified QBs) and it’s no shocker who has 41% of his 1st reads when blitzed: Trey McBride. He might be a lock button for me this week. The 49ers are allowing the most fantasy points above expectation to slot WRs (+6.2) making Greg Dortch someone I will add to Jacoby Brissett lineups this week with Marv out.
Stacking Options
- Mac Jones + George Kittle || Trey McBride (yeah I’ll go 12-personnel)
- Jacoby Brissett + Trey McBride + Michael Wilson or Greg Dortch || Christian McCaffrey
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills
Both of these 6-3 teams are coming off a loss in which their defenses allowed explosive rush plays (De’Von Achane & TreVeyoN Henderson) to KO them for the day. We turn the page to Week 11 knowing both of these teams are in the top-5 in combined points per game: BUF 53.7, TB- 52.7. While the pace of play might be slow with Buffalo ranking dead last in seconds per play, there is enough firepower here to warrant a game stack.
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