NFL DFS Pace of Play for Thanksgiving Day Slate (Fantasy Football)
Pace of Play and Vegas lines are only a fraction of what goes into projecting how a game script might go, but on a three-game slate where we’re looking for any edge we can get, dissecting these games in detail goes a long way. Stack the wrong game that turns into a snoozer, and you might as well flush your money down the drain. Alternatively, find the game that goes off, and you could be on your way to a profitable holiday. Below, I broke down each game in detail, looking at pace metrics, the Vegas spreads and totals and play calling tendencies for each team. Be sure to check out Tuesday’s episode of the DFS Podcast where Kyle and I discuss each game in detail and be on the lookout for our top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Thanksgiving Slate in the DFS Pass on Wednesday. Until then, check out Kyle’s First Look Pricing for Thursday.
Happy Thanksgiving #FootClan! Thursday’s three-game slate is my favorite of the entire season. Family, food, football and DFS should make for a great holiday. We appreciate the support of our DFS Pass product this year and hope you are enjoying all of the content. Best of luck on Thursday and enjoy your holiday!
Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions, BUF -9, O/U: 53.0
Turkey day’s three-gamer kicks off with a matchup between the Bills and the Lions for the Bills’ second-straight game in the Motor City after they were forced to relocate their Week 11 game against Cleveland due to a blizzard conditions in New York. Lions games played at home have been voluminous and profitable DFS investments in 2022. When the Lions play at home, their games are averaging 62.2 combined points per game, and on the season, Lions games are 7-3 to the over. We’ve seen Lions games get funky in Detroit, and facing a Bills offense that ranks #2 on the year in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and tied for 2nd in yards per play, Detroit is likely going to get forced into play volume and pass volume if they want to keep pace with Josh Allen and the Bills. Buffalo is facing the 4th highest pass rate on the year, and while Detroit wants to run the ball, game script may force their hand. Fortunately for us when looking at a game stack, the Bills defense has been anything but elite in the last month and a half. Since Week 6, they’re 28th in yards per game allowed and 26th in drive success rate. We shouldn’t be surprised to see someone on Detroit pop up here for a big game against a Buffalo defense that’s quietly been #Bad on paper.