Fantasy Football Expected Points & Opportunity: Week 5
Welcome to the Expected Points & Opportunity article for Week 5!
In this article, we will utilize my Expected Fantasy Points model to identify the most valuable players at each position. As you may already know, volume is crucial in fantasy football. However, it’s important to remember that not every opportunity is created equal. A player’s value can differ significantly based on their usage and their offensive ecosystem. Expected Fantasy Points will take these factors into account to quantify each player’s projected fantasy value, based on the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.
The key metrics used in this article are:
- Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. This metric is synonymous with efficiency and is subject to regression week over week.
What do these metrics tell us?
- My model analyzes fantasy production in terms of volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE).
- Players with high xFP are more likely to produce consistently, while players who rely too heavily on FPOE may experience volatility in their production. In other words, we want to target players who rank highly in xFP.
- xFP is by far the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. It is only one part of the equation and should be used in conjunction with other metrics for a holistic view.
- While I caution investing in players who rely on FPOE, I would NOT avoid them entirely. Players who depend on efficiency simply have a higher range of outcomes. In other words, these players can simultaneously raise the ceiling and lower the floor of your DFS lineups.
If you are new to this series, be sure to check out my full series primer, where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.
If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
RUNNING BACKS
- One of the most surprising storylines coming out of Week 4 was the breakout of Woody Marks. He set career-highs in opportunity share (34.9%), Expected Fantasy Points (15.9), and Fantasy Points Over Expected (+10.0), finishing the week as the RB6 in half-PPR scoring. Keep in mind that the Texans led the entire game against the Titans, which likely resulted in a more run-heavy game plan. Fortunately, we could see the Texans emphasize the running game once again in Week 5 as they face a Ravens team that could be without Lamar Jackson. In what should be a low-scoring game, Marks should receive plenty of volume against a defense that ranks as the top-eight matchup for RBs in EPA per Play (0.12) and Success Rate (45%). As a result, fantasy managers can confidently start Marks as an RB2 this week.
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