Borg’s NFL DFS Cash Lineup Review for Week 7 (Fantasy Football)

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With many of the top fantasy options (especially at WR) off the main slate, the path wasn’t as obvious at first this week.

As you’ll see from the roster percentages below, there were some consensus plays that gained steamed over the week but QB was wide open.

The goal if this article is neither to boast or wallow in “shoulda, woulda, couldas” but rather give a transparent look at my thought process for the week. Hopefully, this will help DFS Podcast listeners and DFS Pass subscribers get a deeper window into the ups and downs of playing DFS and help you in your selections each week. On Tuesdays, Betz and I review our cash lineups, and this week we’ll give some common overreactions we see and hear.

For cash, I specifically play 50/50s, Double-Ups, and H2Hs on DraftKings. I’ll share my unfiltered gut reaction, my thought process behind this lineup construction, and at the bottom, I will post my weekly results including ROI and H2H record to stay accountable with you.

If you’re wanting to go back to the drawing board, we did an overview podcast before the season on DFS Cash Game Strategy. I also published an article on DFS Strategy for Beginners and another entitled: How to Approach Each Position in DFS & Gain an Edge.

Week 7 Cash Lineup

The Thought Process

Let’s work from early week locks to where I made my final decisions.

Cash Locks (In My Opinion)

  • In our DFS Best Plays article (which comes out every Saturday), I shared the pool of players that were basically locked from the beginning of the week. I cannot fathom why someone would not want to play Josh Jacobs this week. I wrote: “Josh Jacobs will be the chalk worth eating in cash this week. This Texans defense ranked dead last against fantasy RBs and ranked 29th in rush DVOA. On DraftKings, he should be $1,000 more easily.” While 80 percent of the field felt the same, why was he not at 100%???
  • Kenneth Walker III was also locked in from Day 1. His role as the clear lead back for Seattle against a run-funnel Chargers defense was a slam dunk at his salary.
  • At WR, I surprisingly had two WRs that were locked by Friday: Ceedee Lamb ($6800) and Tee Higgins ($6300). My normal process is a bit slower locking in maybe 2-or-3 players total before the weekend. Both of them were extreme values given their roles. Lamb was holding a 33 percent target share and as DFS Pod listeners surely know, we hype up Higgins any chance we get knowing we get 85% of Ja’Marr Chase‘s upside but with the same exact usage. Both WRs were affordable and the two of the top points per dollar values of the week.
  • The Jets DST also became the obvious chalk choice this week after Russell Wilson was declared out. Heck, even if he did play the Jets seemed like the cash-saving DST of the week regardless. The Broncos rank 32nd in points per game… not a sentence we thought I’d be writing before the season began.

Gut-Wrenching Decisions

  • QB was one of the tougher decision points of the week for me as well as the field. I want to bring it up first because my lineup not only was made on the back of Joe Burrow but it was the key domino that fell and allowed the rest of the lineup to come into place. Lamar Jackson ($8000) was the only true separator in my opinion but we hadn’t seen him put together four quarters. The injuries to Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman‘s availability clouded some of his appeal this week. The other QBs in consideration: Burrow ($6900), Tom Brady ($6300), and Geno Smith ($5600).
  • It seemed like the field was miffed for most of the week about who would be the most popular QB. I could spot warts in all four of those candidates. Burrow played Atlanta which tries to slow the game down on the ground. Brady and the Buccaneers looked like dog poo the week before. Geno game managed his way to a victory in Week 6 and I already had Kenneth Walker III on the roster.
  • Ultimately, Burrow won out to pair with Tee Higgins believing that the Bengals’ recent Pace of Play metrics would dictate them destroying the Falcons through the air. Spoiler alert: they certainly did.
  • At TE, it was a true pay-up for Mark Andrews or punt week. With Andrews popping up on the injury report, he no longer became a “must start” and the Baltimore stack was presenting itself as a bit cost-prohibitive as the week wore on. The punt options were either Cade Otton, Foster Moreau, or Greg Dulcich. With a punt play, we’re really splitting hairs here. Once I fell off Brady, Otton became less attractive. Dulcich was becoming to obvious popular play of the week but his point projection and floor felt lower than I think the field realized. In hindsight, Dulcich came through but Moreau had come through before in cash last year and the Raiders’ overall pass rate made me think more opportunities abounded.
  • Knowing I had Jacobs and Walker locked in and wanting a 3-RB build, there were a few higher-tier candidates I shuffled in my lineup throughout the week: Austin Ekeler ($8300), Saquon Barkley ($7900), and Joe Mixon ($7000). With the savings at punt TE and mid-tier RBs, this roster had room in the FLEX to spend up. Mixon felt solid but three Bengals in the same lineup were too much risk in my opinion. Barkley showed up on the injury report late and while he was $400 less than Ekeler, I couldn’t really find where to use those savings.
  • The other WR spot was the final piece of the lineup and it correlated with my QB & FLEX decisions. Spending up with Lamar ultimately gave me an RB/WR that I didn’t feel was as strong a projection. Chris Godwin ($6300) was always on my radar especially when I considered stacking with Brady. But as a FLEX, I wasn’t guaranteed the same number of touches.
  • In order to get up to Ekeler, I had to look at a cheap WR who could see volume. Rookies Alec Pierce ($4600) and Wan’Dale Robinson ($4500) were considered but never felt like priority plays. DeAndre Carter ($3700) was cheap. That’s it. I wasn’t crazy about his role as a journeyman slot WR on an offense that never has featured him. But with Joshua Palmer declared out, he would slide right in and I was hoping for 6+ points to be honest.
  • The Chargers being in the afternoon slate provided me the opportunity to late swap and wait for the Keenan Allen injury news. I’m a huge Keenan Allen fan as many of you know but the news trended in the direction of “he’ll play but be limited in his snaps”. We’ve been there before with Allen. Ekeler’s pass-catching role felt virtually unchanged and while I didn’t love having two Chargers in my lineup, Carter was like an annoying fly just along for the ride.
  • Just for reference, here were the two lineups I was deciding between.

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Mistakes Were Made …

Every week I’ll highlight my biggest mistakes which range from not weighing low-end outcomes to assuming, to not thinking, and ultimately moving away from plays I started with. We’ve all been there… stay water. Don’t try to justify yourself or make things sound better than they were. You made a decision, now deal with it.

  • The only subtle mistake was diverging from Greg Dulcich late on Saturday. The price was premiere but his popularity around the industry as the TE punt play made me want to move off. Call it my stubborn bend towards going against the grain.
  • Also, please let me never have to play DeAndre Carter again in cash. For my own sanity…

2022 Results

Each week I’ll post my head-to-head (H2H) win percentage here to give you an idea of what type of week I had. Keep in mind there are varying price points, competition, and players who take my H2Hs in the lobby that have no rhyme or reason.

Week DK Pts H2H Win % Note
1 147.02 65% All the Chalk Hits
2 106.90 46% Trey Lance Pain, Mark Andrews Salvage
3 122.86 77% Mack Hollins FTW
4 90.26 10% Jonathan Taylor Nose Dive
5 208.06 100% This Lineup Could Do No Wrong
6 134.26 32% The Mike Evans Let Down
7 194.64 93% Joe Burrow + the Top-3 RBs

A strong week where the process and player pool felt clearer and clearer as the weekend progressed. But also one where rostering Joe Burrow made all the difference from sweating it out to going into full cruise control mode.

Comments

IPitytheFoles says:

I went with the Lamar/Andrews stack because I got burned the week Allen went off against the Steelers and thought Lamar had the upside to separate from the field. Hearing your explanation on the pod about prioritizing Ekeler helped me understand your decision to pivot to Burrow, but IS THERE A VERSION OF SUNDAY LIVE you guys could do to help us with those last minute pivots??

Randall says:

Great content as always Kyle! I finished at 193.64, going Metcalf, MVS, and Lions D as our only different plays. When you and Betz talked up taking KC spread and team total, I knew I needed a piece from that game and got lucky enough all 3 of KC’s WR’s hit their ceiling. Keep up the amazing work sir!

Matthew Jozsa says:

I swapped to Lamar right before lock because of what you had written about him in the cash plays article. This caused me to then pivot to Doubs (woof). Because Doubs goose egged and Lamar barely broke double digits., I then had to pivot to Ekeler, Breece, and Nico Collins (who I wish would have been Hardman instead) to differentiate. I originally had Walker, Breece, and Jacobs in. Overall scored 105 and lost every cash game lineup.

david_amodeo says:

I swapped out CeeDee for Amon (whoops) and went with Mandrews (I never thought he would get zero catches even popping up on the injury report). I fell about 7 point short of the cash line. My love hate relationship with fantasy football continues.

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