Borg’s Cash Lineup Review for Week 13 (Fantasy Football)
En fuego! After spending the weekend in Phoenix with my wife finalizing some housing stuff for our upcoming move to Arizona, my DFS lineup decided it wanted to stay in the flames as I flew back to Georgia.
Every week I want to unpack part of the process in assembling my cash game lineup. The goal is neither to boast or wallow in “shoulda, woulda, couldas” but rather give a transparent look at my thought process for the week. Hopefully, this will help DFS Podcast listeners and DFS Pass subscribers get a deeper window into the ups and downs of playing DFS and help you in your selections each week.
For cash, I specifically play 50/50s, Double-Ups, and H2Hs on DraftKings. I’ll share my unfiltered gut reaction, my thought process behind this lineup construction, and at the bottom, I will post my weekly results including H2H record to stay accountable with you.
If you’re wanting to go back to the drawing board, we did an overview podcast before the season on Cash Game Strategy. I also published an article on How to Approach Each Position in DFS & Gain an Edge.
Week 13 Cash Lineup
Note: Roster percentages shown from NFL Massive $25 Double-Up [Single Entry] with 8,000+ entrants. This contest gives one of the better sample sizes for cash in my opinion.
The Thought Process
Here is how I slowly compiled my lineup through the week. I’ll start with where I was early on (Tuesday/Wednesday) and some of the shifting news pieces that led to constructing my lineup:
- At QB, there were only two QBs I considered. Tom Brady was in a smash spot against my Falcons and after averaging 3.7 TDs against them in three games played, it was hard going elsewhere. Justin Herbert ($6700) was more affordable but the Bengals defense showed enough fight last week against the Steelers to make my pause. Brady was projected for 24+ DK points with room for more. Too easy.
- Stacking with Brady was a priority knowing he adds little on the ground. With Chris Godwin‘s price dropping $400, he was a CORE play right from the get-go. His splits against Atlanta also were insane. I wrote up in the FanDuel Cash Picks: “He’s a Falcon Killer catching a TD in SIX straight games versus Atlanta dating back to 2018! In that span, he’s averaged 98 rec yards, 1.5 TDs, and 21.5 fppg.” It’s wild that Godwin could put up 33+ DK points without a TD. He’s a stud.
- The biggest worry I had this week was picking the wrong RBs. We honestly liked eight different guys with Jonathan Taylor, Joe Mixon, Austin Ekeler, Alexander Mattison, Elijah Mitchell, James Conner, Antonio Gibson, and Sony Michel all plays I considered. While Mixon and Ekeler provided more than $1,000 of savings from Taylor, I had to lock in the guaranteed production from fantasy’s RB1. He was too safe against Houston and when compiling my cash lineup projections, I had him near 25 DK points.
- I have to give some props to our DFS Best Plays article this week. Betz and I felt fairly confident in minimizing our player pool as the week progressed locking in Antonio Gibson as my favorite. While my three RBs ended up being the highest rostered on the slate, it seemed like the field knew what they were doing.
- Sony Michel emerged as a must-play at his price tag of $4,300. Some DFSers might’ve gotten skittish with the news of Darrell Henderson Jr. being active for the game. However, Jay Glazer made it clear that Michel would be the lead back. That was enough at his salary. Michel ended up seeing the most opportunities (28) of his career in the regular season and his highest fantasy finish ever. The dude 8xed on his salary.
- I knew Foster Moreau would be popular but honestly just didn’t care knowing I wanted to jam in a couple of studs at other positions. 70 percent is insane but knowing someone is that high in cash, meant very little roster percentage was diffused elsewhere. Rob Gronkowski ($5300) was considered but Godwin was the preferred Brady stacking option. Gronk ended up at 9.4% rostered with slate-breakers George Kittle (2.6%) and Dallas Goedert (2.4%) so distant that they couldn’t really hurt me.
- At DST, I only considered the Dolphins ($3300) and the Football Team ($2500) this week. The punt options were weaker than most and an opportunity to capitalize on Mike Glennon was my subtle way of sticking it to the long-necked QB. The Dolphins were on a roll with their pass rush coming alive.
- The two WR spots were where I toyed the most this week. After Godwin, I looked at Brandon Aiyuk, Diontae Johnson, Keenan Allen, Hunter Renfrow, Van Jefferson Jr., and Josh Reynolds combinations. However, once news broke about DeVante Parker being activated from IR, it was clear the Dolphins were comfortable with him going back to a near every-down role. Parker is a target magnet and at $3,900, he was more than a punt play. There was a risk for re-injury of his hamstring but at that salary, it was worth the gamble.
- With my leftover cash, Diontae Johnson felt like the safest play knowing 8+ targets was a guarantee. Johnson continues to show up as a strong points-per-dollar play as a sub $7K WR.
- In my early projections, this lineup’s median outcome was showing up north of 155+ points, which was higher than most weeks. The Brady + Godwin stack felt like it had a combined ceiling, JTT can always go off (and finished as the RB1 on the slate), and Gibson and Michel were sorely underpriced for their lead-back roles. Overall, I felt great heading into Sunday lock with this group, and obviously, they went off.
- The cash line this week was shockingly high. Everyone and their mama went off. I received some screenshots on Sunday night and Monday morning of many in tears sharing that their 165+ points didn’t cut it. It’s important to recognize that every week in DFS is different. 165 points in Week 13 is very different from 165 points in Week 12. We need to realize that before blaming things on luck or “shoulda, woulda, couldas” with our cash lineups.
- At QB, three QBs (Minshew- 30%, Brady- 29%, Herbert- 12%) combined for 71 percent of the field. That’s a wild number and all three went off with Minshew almost 5xing on his salary. The chalky RBs (JTT, Michel, Gibson, Michel, Mattison) all came through with solid outputs with three of the most popular WRs (Godwin, Kupp, Renfrow) going off as well. If you survived, you likely needed to have at least four of these guys in your lineup and avoid Brandon Aiyuk. If you were lucky enough to start Justin Jefferson instead, maybe you got there.
|Week||DK Pts||H2H Win %|
Well well well… It’s always a good feeling to look at those “green winnings” on DK and see an ROI that erupts at perfection. Just a reminder that every week is different so Week 13 success has ZERO bearing on Week 14. We always have to adjust to “play the slate” and “play the field”.
Check in the DFS First Look Pricing article that comes out Tuesday AM!