NFL DFS Pace of Play for Week 7 (Fantasy Football)
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matters in a world where volume is king. Over the last three years, on average, teams ran a play 0.8 seconds per play slower in positive game scripts than they did in neutral game script.
Each week I’ll highlight five game environments factoring in their pace metrics, stacks to consider for tournaments, and five dart throws to shoot for the moon with.
A reminder on a simple metric I introduced last year: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– Back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals hovering UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 7, I’ve split up each team’s implied totals, seconds per play, neutral situation pace, and combined that for a final GPS score.
Make sure to check out the DFS Podcast where Betz and I break down the main slate and highlight some of our favorite plays of the week.
Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) – O/U: 51
Another week and another opportunity to talk about the Seahawks. They keep finding themselves in plus matchups for DFS simply because the defense is so inept ranking 30th in EPA per play, 31st in rushing yards per game allowed, and 31st in points per game allowed. It’s a prime spot for Justin Herbert to get right after failing to throw a TD on Monday night and DraftKings stealing the souls of thousands of bettors. The Chargers were supposed to be one of our DFS champions this year but they are middle of the pack in EPA per play (14th) and 19th in explosive pass rate despite ranking 3rd in pass rate over expectation. Keenan Allen‘s return is the linchpin of what makes this offense work. Mike Williams was not built to be a #1 possession type of receiver. Austin Ekeler‘s seen a massive uptick in targets and while Allen’s return will certainly dock some targets, the Seahawks are allowing the 5th most RB fantasy points including a massive 194 total-yard game from Alvin Kamara two weeks ago. A Herbert double-stack feels too easy to make happen this week and you can easily throw Gerald Everett in the mix on DK. Those two have a strong correlation (0.72) through six weeks.