Borg’s NFL DFS Cash Lineup Review for Week 5 (Fantasy Football)

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If you were here for Week 4, you understand how sweet this week was.

I also had a great weekend in the mountains of Prescott with my family and friends. You’re getting a refreshed Kyle that also went full hamburglar in DFS cash this week.

But I received so many messages from people mad/confused/done with DFS after this week after their cash lineup scored 160+ points and they finished outside the moneyline. On Tuesday’s podcast, Betz and I will get to discuss how to get a “feel for the slate” and give context on what to take away. The cash line was elevated for everyone so we can’t compare it to the previous week. Each week is its own multiverse for DFS. But more importantly, how you construct your roster versus the field is a better barometer for performance. Remember, we make decisions not in a vacuum but within a field filled with other players making decisions too!

The goal if this article is neither to boast or wallow in “shoulda, woulda, couldas” but rather give a transparent look at my thought process for the week. Hopefully, this will help DFS Podcast listeners and DFS Pass subscribers get a deeper window into the ups and downs of playing DFS and help you in your selections each week. On Tuesdays, Betz and I review our cash lineups and this week we’ll give some common overreactions we see and hear.

For cash, I specifically play 50/50s, Double-Ups, and H2Hs on DraftKings. I’ll share my unfiltered gut reaction, my thought process behind this lineup construction, and at the bottom, I will post my weekly results including ROI and H2H record to stay accountable with you.

If you’re wanting to go back to the drawing board, we did an overview podcast before the season on DFS Cash Game Strategy. I also published an article on DFS Strategy for Beginners and another entitled: How to Approach Each Position in DFS & Gain an Edge.

Week 5 Cash Lineup

The Thought Process

Let’s work from early week locks to where I made my final decisions.

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Cash Locks (In My Opinion)

  • In our DFS Best Plays article (which comes out on Saturdays), I shared the pool of players that were basically locked from the beginning of the week. There was no world where Chris Godwin would not be in my lineup. I detailed his rich history of success against my Falcons all week long.
  • Believe it or not, James Robinson ($6300) was locked in. I loved the matchup against the Texans, the league’s worst run defense. He felt like a safe bet for 80+ total yards and a score. Narrator: Yet he did not.
  • I could not imagine playing a different DST this week in cash. The Cowboys ($2500) were the biggest omission from DraftKings’ algorithm. Chalky? Heck yes. But a cheap chalky DST is something you just eat in cash. Fading in GPPs is another story.

Gut-Wrenching Decisions

  • At QB, I only considered Josh Allen or Tom Brady. All week long, we discussed how Brady was an insane value at $6000 and the matchup against Atlanta felt like a slam dunk. The price gap between the two also was ridiculous. While making different lineup constructions, it was clear: save $2400 with Brady and use it elsewhere. But the slate evolved over the weekend as you’ll see.
  • With the Brady savings, I seriously considered one of high-priced guys (Cooper Kupp & Stefon Diggs) for most of the week. But my combinations got increasingly tougher because of how much I liked the mid-priced tier: Ceedee Lamb, Chris Olave, and Tyler Lockett. Lockett won out as the cheapest of those three with a solid matchup in the slot versus the Saints. That game environment also figured into my decision-making as I knew I would be correlating one of the Saints with him.
  • I leaned towards a 3RB build early in the week because of how many RB touches I could add up. We can use our projections in the DFS Pass but also being able to add up touches is another way to be able to quantify your choices. I loved Dalvin Cook ($7300) because I am a Dalvin truther. I recognized that early in the week and voiced it to Betz just so I didn’t go overboard. I sided with playing him in tournaments and making him my bold call of the week in the Best Plays article: “Dalvin Cook finally gets it together and scores 2 TDs.
  • But the sub $7K RBs on this slate were the stars as Leonard Fournette ($6900), Alvin Kamara ($6600), Khalil Herbert ($5900), Jeff Wilson Jr. ($5500), and Breece Hall ($5400). I loved all of them and had combinations with all of them included alongside James Robinson. Herbert was easy to rule out as David Montgomery magically decided he wanted to show up and play this week. Hall still felt like a leap with Zach Wilson at the helm and I was already starting him in my main home league. Petty excuse but it was enough to X him out of the group.
  • It came down to Fournette, Kamara, and Wilson. As I name those three, you probably are saying to yourself “Hey those were my three cash RBs!” Yes, I knew they would be popular this week, and honestly, you couldn’t really go wrong once you figured each would see near 18+ touches.
  • At TE, it slowly became a week where punting felt right. O.J. Howard ($2600) became a name after the team traded Pharoah Brown and Brevin Jordan was declared out. Buccaneers TE Cade Otton ($2500) also showed up on the radar once Cameron Brate was also out. It was either punt or find a mid-priced option like Tyler Higbee or Dallas Goedert. I knew Higbee would be the most popular and that his receiving line from the previous week would entice many. It came down to Otton or Goedert.
  • Khalil Shakir was always in my player pool from the beginning of the week but it seemed like Isaiah McKenzie was trending in the right direction of practice reports Thursday and Friday. Once McKenzie was ruled out, Shakir felt like a must-play and my preferred punt play over the TEs. With that massive savings, it helped me get up to Josh Allen comfortably and provide my team with a cheap stack.
  • The Shakir selection not only unlocked Allen but allowed me to make crucial decisions for the rest of the lineup. I wanted equity in the Tampa Bay game so I figured “I’ll get all the TB points with Fournette + Godwin” knowing how popular Brady would be. It also moved me off Otton as a punt play and onto Goedert who I also figured projected so well against the Cardinals.
  • The New Orleans Saints definitely were the biggest decision point for my roster. I didn’t want to play both Olave and Kamara. I figured Olave would be much more popular so I went with the PPR upside of Kamara in a better game environment over Jeff Wilson Jr.

Mistakes Were Made …

Every week I’ll highlight my biggest mistakes which range from not weighing low-end outcomes to assuming, to not thinking, and ultimately moving away from plays I started with. We’ve all been there… stay water. Don’t try to justify yourself or make things sound better than they were. You made a decision, now deal with it.

  • Other than locking in James Robinson way too early, this was about as hot as I’ll ever run in DFS.

2022 Results

Each week I’ll post my head-to-head (H2H) win percentage here to give you an idea of what type of week I had. Keep in mind there are varying price points, competition, and players who take my H2Hs in the lobby that have no rhyme or reason.

Week DK Pts H2H Win % Note
1 147.02 65% All the Chalk Hits
2 106.90 46% Trey Lance Pain, Mark Andrews Salvage
3 122.86 77% Mack Hollins FTW
4 90.26 10% Jonathan Taylor Nose Dive
5 208.06 100% The Lineup That Could Do No Wrong

I’ve been writing this article for two years. 100% is running a bit too hot. Last year, I hit 100% in Week 3 and returned to earth the following week.

Comments

Lloydrage says:

nuclear

pin says:

I’m in that group: 170 points, 25% Head 2 Head return rate. 20% double up return rate. Missed the cash line by less then 3 points in most of my double ups. Absolutely gutted to go through a week like that.

I think I must be doing something wrong with H2H games. I’m following the exact plan from the article/pod – create a bunch of H2H contests Sunday morning, low stakes, limit to one entry per opponent, close any empty contests 1 hour before kick-off. Every week I’m getting paired with like 70%+ opponents who have loads of experience badges and are cashing in 180 point line-ups. I don’t get any of these “easy” matchups you guys talk about at all

Destin Porche says:

*slow clap*

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