Borg’s NFL DFS Cash Lineup Review for Week 2 (Fantasy Football)
Not as much for me but for my guy Trey Lance. There is a long road ahead of recovery but also another off-season of storylines in San Francisco.
For DFS, there was pain knowing my cash lineup was toast after Lance went down to a season-ending injury in the 1st quarter.
Every week I want to unpack part of the process in assembling my cash game lineup. The goal is neither to boast or wallow in “shoulda, woulda, couldas” but rather give a transparent look at my thought process for the week. Hopefully, this will help DFS Podcast listeners and DFS Pass subscribers get a deeper window into the ups and downs of playing DFS and help you in your selections each week. On Tuesdays, Betz and I review our cash lineups and this week we’ll give some common overreactions we see and hear.
For cash, I specifically play 50/50s, Double-Ups, and H2Hs on DraftKings. I’ll share my unfiltered gut reaction, my thought process behind this lineup construction, and at the bottom, I will post my weekly results including ROI and H2H record to stay accountable with you.
If you’re wanting to go back to the drawing board, we did an overview podcast before the season on DFS Cash Game Strategy. I also published an article on DFS Strategy for Beginners and another entitled: How to Approach Each Position in DFS & Gain an Edge.
Week 2 Cash Lineup
Note: Roster percentages shown from NFL Massive $25 Double-Up [Single Entry] with 6,800+ entrants. This contest gives one of the better sample sizes for cash in my opinion for Week 2.
The Thought Process
For Week 2, the slate was even smaller with one fewer game and we saw some roster percentages absolutely sky-rocket. Betz and I discussed our cash construction process on the DFS podcast each week along with premium articles in the DFS Pass.
Let’s work from early week locks to where I made my final decisions.
Cash Locks (In My Opinion)
- In our DFS Best Plays article (which comes out on Saturdays), I shared the pool of players that were basically locked from the beginning of the week. Darrell Henderson Jr. was in there from Day 1 even though Betz and I both discussed that Cam Akers would see more work. The Rams were 10.5-point home favorites against my lowly Falcons. I never waivered from DHendo being in my lineup with that type of TD equity. Yes, he scored but his usage was concerning.
- Davante Adams was locked in based on the matchup and price differential from Cooper Kupp. He ended up being 70+ percent in many Double-Ups but the Cardinals’ pass defense was over-the-top bad in Week 1. Adams started out with a TD early but the Raiders inexplicably mailed it in the second half. Seriously, it’s embarrassing that they somehow lost that game at home.
- I knew the CIN DST would be the chalkiest of chalk. I asked myself if getting different here would matter. With 80+ percent of the field on it, it came down to saying: what do I win if I win here? In other words, if I did go with a different option near this price point (JAX or NO), what did I need and what would I get buried by the field if CIN somehow scored a DST TD? I decided to make my bold calls elsewhere.
- I know it sounds weird but early on in the week, I had conviction about Mark Andrews as my preferred TE play in every single format. I might’ve rostered Andrews in 80% of my lineups (both cash and GPPs) which ended up saving my day from being a total disaster. His projection looked strong (17+ points) but it was what the field was doing by punting the position (Albert O, Juwan Johnson) that made me even more bullish. If those TE options failed, it would give me a massive leg up on the competition knowing Andrews would not be as rostered as he should be.
- I went back and forth between Lance ($5700) and Derek Carr ($6200). I never really considered anyone else because of the savings each presented. We loved Lamar Jackson and Tua Tagovailoa as our favorite GPP plays with soooo many DFS Pod listeners having big days. I knew Carr would be rostered in cash by nearly half the lineups but thought I could “re-create” his production
- Saquon Barkley was the chalkiest of picks and if there is one major point of regret, it was following the herd here. I was fortunate to completely fade him in tournaments but the concerning thing was his popularity and the expectation that he would repeat what he did in Week 1.
- My WR pool early in the week consisted of a number of high-priced (Ja’Marr Chase– $8000, Tyreek Hill– $7100, Amon-Ra St. Brown-$6900), mid-priced (Brandin Cooks-$6000, Courtland Sutton-$6000, Christian Kirk– $5700), and cheap (Greg Dortch-$3500) options to work from along with Davante Adams. The problem I kept running into was having a roster with Andrews on it was not allowing me to fit in multiple high-priced WRs in my build. It came down to prizing RB touches over some of these WRs.
- With the news of Michael Pittman Jr. being declared out on Saturday, a Colts punt play came into view. I chose Ashton Dulin over Parris Campbell based on their roles in the offense. I highlighted this to our Discord crew hopefully allowing some people to avoid Campbell. The PPR goodness sounds nice but with Pittman out, Dulin seeing multiple down-the-field targets was more valuable.
- The problem was having both Greg Dortch and Dulin in the same lineup. I don’t like punting multiple positions unless there is a strong role to support. With the savings of going with two cheapies, I could fit in Joe Mixon as my final piece. Maximizing touches feels like a must each week. I felt like Saquon + Mixon + Adams + Andrews gave me four truly elite players that could finish as the #1 at their position on the week. Unfortunately, Andrews was the only one who balled out.
- My final decision in my lineup came down to Carr+ ARSB + Juwan or Lance + Dulin + Andrews. However, because ARSB was in the early window of games, it wouldn’t give me the same FLEXibility I wanted if things went south and I needed to late swap. I also could not get past playing Andrews. I loved everything about him this week. Andrews kicked butt, but you can see how my other lineup
- I made the “happiness hedge” by playing Amon-Ra St. Brown and Tyreek in GPPs. My best GPP lineup of the day scored 230 pts manned by a BAL stack + Waddle + Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Mistakes Were Made …
Every week I’ll highlight my biggest mistakes which range from not weighing low-end outcomes to assuming, to not thinking, and ultimately moving away from plays I started with. We’ve all been there… stay water. Don’t try to justify yourself or make things sound better than they were. You made a decision, now deal with it.
- The Lance over Carr decision definitely hurts. But it was based on knowing I had a safe rushing floor as a near 10-point favorite at home.
- It hurts not following my gut about Saquon Barkley and the Giants’ offense knowing how popular they were in cash.
- Poking holes in Henderson’s usage probably should’ve been more part of the process. It did help that all RBs across the board pooped the bed. Seriously, 12+ points were RB1 territory this week.
Each week I’ll post my head-to-head (H2H) win percentage here to give you an idea of what type of week I had. Keep in mind there are varying price points, competition, and players who take my H2Hs in the lobby that have no rhyme or reason.
Anytime a player (especially as important as a QB) goes down to injury in the 1st quarter, you know your weekend in shot in cash. Luckily, I avoided some damage thanks to Mark Andrews and MIA stacks in tournaments.
|H2H Win %